ESPN Draft Expert Mel Kiper has come under major scrutiny (and rightfully so) since earlier this morning declaring that two-high safety looks are ruining the NFL and even went as far as to say they should be banned entirely from the NFL. This is because in today’s league, there are multiple issues that make 2-shell an optimal look for the defenses.
For one, QBs are relying more on talent in today’s NFL than in the past. Instead of focusing on the cerebral aspect and fundamentals, many coaches are allowing bad habits and letting QBs ad-lib, a la Patrick Mahomes. However, the name of the game is still winning from the pocket and dissecting defenses. While guys like Mahomes and Josh Allen are transcendent in extending the play, it is refreshing to see guys like CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy mastering the game that was crafted by guys like Brady, Manning and Brees. Of course, it’s not a bad thing to let modern signal callers use their athleticism, but it seems that the teaching and progressions, as well as the art of reading defenses, has taken a backseat to flash.
On top of this, offensive lines are pass blocking quite poorly. In a defensive look designed to take away the deep ball, it is still open a good amount, however, OL’s are succumbing to the freak pass rushes more and more as of late. So, even with deep routes developing at times against the coverage, QBs are taking what’s open underneath with less time to throw
Behind the Numbers
Now for the numbers. Teams on average are only running Cover 2 just under 13% of the time. As for cover 2 man, that is being run just 1.4%. Then for Cover 4 and Cover 6, 16% and 9%. So, in total, 2-high looks are being given somewhere around 35-40% of the time. This goes to show that the 2-high is impossible to beat” narrative is overplayed, and kind of an excuse for a mediocre level of QB play in terms of production. Now let’s dive into the efficiency and production numbers. According to Steven Ruiz of The Ringer, cover 2 has been the most exploited among Covers 1, 2, and 3. Cover 2 has an EPA/pass allowed of 0.06. Adversely, cover 1 and 3 are both allowing negative EPA/pass (-0.03, -0.02).
At the end of the day, 2-high was used more frequently once Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs started going Bombs over Baghdad on the league. A focal point game of when this shift did start to occur was Super Bowl 55 when Todd Bowles dialed up a great deep defense against the 16-2 Chiefs. Mahomes himself has adapted and has won back-to-back Super Bowls going underneath. The question is, when will the rest of the league? And when will they find new wrinkles to exploit the look? It is an offensive league, that is being led by defenses right now. When you look at the all-time greats, they haven’t struggled to exploit these same looks. It’s time to stop using the coverages as a scapegoat and look in the mirror as QBs and OCs and get better.