With NFL training camps in full swing, fantasy football Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are poised for shifts that could determine whether a player is selected in the second or third round in the coming weeks. While some players present excellent value at their current ADPs, others are overpriced, making them risky picks for your fantasy roster. This article will break down five players I’m steering clear of at their current draft costs.
Zay Flowers (ADP: WR25)
Zay Flowers is currently drafted as a WR2, but his fantasy production (WR32 in 2023, WR31 in 2024) doesn’t support this tier. Despite outplaying expected points, Baltimore’s run-first offense, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, limits passing volume, with the Ravens ranking second in passing touchdowns (41) last season but only seeing Flowers contribute four (9.8% of the total). The addition of DeAndre Hopkins, alongside Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews, further clouds his red-zone outlook, where he ranked 28th and 59th in targets over the past two seasons.
With the Ravens’ third-ranked rushing rate and ninth in neutral rushing rate unlikely to shift in 2025, his 12.3 PPR points per game in 2024 doesn’t justify the WR25 slot. His 24.1% target share and 26% target per route run (matching Justin Jefferson) are impressive, but the competition and team philosophy make him a risky pick at this price. Flowers is a perfect example of a player who has a capped ceiling. He does not have WR1 upside in this offense, but you know he is going to get you 12 points per game each season because he’s a good football player. I’m in the minority here, but the fantasy love for Flowers feels too high with a capped ceiling.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ADP: WR18)
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 2024 rookie season with the Arizona Cardinals resulted in a WR42 ranking in fantasy points per game, with 62 receptions, 885 yards, and 8 touchdowns on 116 targets. Despite high expectations as a top draft pick, his WR18 ADP for 2025 reflects a lack of significant price for his underutilized role. The Cardinals’ offensive scheme, led by Kyler Murray and coordinator Drew Petzing, positioned Harrison primarily as a deep threat, with a 10.2% deep pass rate and zero designed plays tailored to him.
His 54.5% catch rate, 21% target share (WR34), and an 88.5 passer rating when targeted (75th among receivers) indicate inefficiencies in his deployment. A 14.1 average depth of target (aDOT) and minimal yards after catch (0.03 missed tackles per reception, WR82) further highlight a mismatch between his skill set and the team’s strategy, which favored tight end Trey McBride as the primary target.
While Harrison’s talent remains undeniable, his fantasy outlook for 2025 is tempered by the Cardinals’ unchanged offensive approach. Fantasy managers should approach his WR18 price cautiously, as it assumes a leap that may not materialize without schematic changes. While his talent makes him a compelling long-term investment, particularly in dynasty formats, his current ADP carries risk for redraft leagues until the Cardinals’ offense better aligns with his strengths.
Brock Bowers (ADP: TE1, 17th overall)
Brock Bowers’ TE1 status at 17th overall feels steep when Trey McBride (TE2, 26.7) offers similar value later. Bowers’ 2024 rookie stats (108-1,144) on 153 targets were historic, but the 2025 outlook dims with Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, whose offenses rarely target tight ends heavily. The addition of Ashton Jeanty (projected 300+ touches) and rookie Jack Bech, plus Jakobi Meyers, will compete for targets, and positive game scripts under Carroll could reduce pass volume, lowering Bowers’ 24.5% target share. Paying a top-20 pick for a potential drop-off feels unwise when McBride’s discount aligns with comparable upside.
Furthermore, Bowers’ role could shrink as the Raiders prioritize new pieces, making his TE1 status less secure. His 2024 success relied on negative game script volume, and Carroll’s historical lean away from tight-end production adds risk. Meanwhile, McBride’s 25% target share and synergy with Kyler Murray in Arizona offer a safer floor at TE2. Bowers remains the top passing option, but the shift in philosophy and competition makes his 17th-overall ADP a reach when waiting a round for McBride is smarter.
Baker Mayfield (ADP: QB7)
Baker Mayfield thrived in 2024 under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, finishing as a top-three fantasy quarterback with a 7.2% touchdown rate and a career-high 22 rushing yards per game.. He recorded 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, ranking third and second among quarterbacks, respectively. However, Coen’s departure introduces significant regression risk. Mayfield’s touchdown rate far exceeded his previous career high of 5.6% and will see touchdown regression this season.
The Buccaneers’ offense is incredibly talented and added Emeka Egbuka in the draft, but new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s usage of these talented players is yet to be seen. We are drafting Baker at his ceiling right now as the QB6. The rushing upside is not enough for me to reach on him early in a deep quarterback draft this season.
James Cook (ADP: RB14)
James Cook delivered a career-best 2024 season, averaging 15.7 half-PPR points per game with a significant spike in touchdowns, capitalizing on a scheme adjustment that funneled more goal-line touches his way. However, his contract situation adds uncertainty, but it looks like with Cook being around the Bills’ facility, the expectation is that he will suit up at some point this season.
James Cook’s breakout season’s fantasy production heavily relied on touchdowns, which accounted for 43.1% of his points. With only a 50% snap share and a passing snap percentage drop from 43% to 27%, Cook’s limited field time is concerning. The Bills’ backfield is a committee with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, the latter praised by Josh Allen as the best third-down back in the league. While Cook still holds out, I expect him to suit up this season, which will increase his price. Right now, our team has him priced at RB13, which is too steep for the likely regression coming this season. Avoid Cook if he’s your targeted RB1, as his ADP has risen too high for his projected output.
