As the 2025 fantasy football season approaches, identifying potential busts at the running back position is critical for building a championship roster. Here are the five running backs to avoid drafting at their current average draft position (ADP) due to concerns about regression, injuries, or reduced roles.
1. Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles)
Saquon Barkley is coming off a historic 2024 season, finishing as the RB1. However, expectations for a repeat performance are tempered by historical trends and his situation. At 28, Barkley has surpassed the peak age for running backs, and no player has finished as the RB1 in back-to-back seasons since Todd Gurley in 2017-2018. Last season, he finished with 500 touches between the regular season and playoffs, playing his third full season of his career.
Despite his monster year, he ranked 45th in yards created per touch, while averaging a whopping 3.8 more points than his expected number. The Eagles’ offensive line was the top-rated unit in the NFL last year, helping Barkley reach historic numbers. Despite playing behind a strong Eagles offensive line, concerns about his ability to stay healthy, efficiency, and ability to handle another massive workload loom large. The “Madden cover curse” and the regression of the offensive player of the year add to the skepticism. While Barkley’s talent ensures a likely top-12 finish, his early-round draft capital (top four picks) makes him a risky investment considering the workload from 2024.
2. James Cook (Buffalo Bills)
James Cook delivered a career-best 2024 season, averaging 15.7 half-PPR points per game with a significant spike in touchdowns, capitalizing on a scheme adjustment that funneled more goal-line touches his way. However, his contract situation adds uncertainty, but it looks like with Cook being around the Bills’ facility, the expectation is that he will suit up at some point this season.
James Cook’s breakout season’s fantasy production heavily relied on touchdowns, which accounted for 43.1% of his points. With only a 50% snap share and a passing snap percentage drop from 43% to 27%, Cook’s limited field time is concerning. The Bills’ backfield is a committee with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, the latter praised by Josh Allen as the best third-down back in the league. While Cook still holds out, I expect him to suit up this season, which will increase his price. Right now, our team has him priced at RB13, which is too steep for the likely regression coming this season. Avoid Cook if he’s your targeted RB1, as his ADP has risen too high for his projected output.
3. Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans)
Tony Pollard was a fantasy darling two years ago when he outshined Ezekiel Elliott, but as a lead back, he has never met that breakout season, failing to top 13.1 points in the last two years. His 12.5 points per game last season were less impressive because he had the 9th most weight opportunities and the 9th highest snap share among running backs. The production was not higher as Pollard rated 139th in expected points added and 46th in yards created per touch.
The Titans will face negative game scripts, and Pollard himself will face competition from Tyjae Spears, a popular sleeper who’s expected to dominate receiving downs. Pollard’s lack of efficiency and consistency, combined with a history of injuries, raises red flags. Currently ranked as RB26, behind TreVeyon Henderson and above Quinshon Judkins, Pollard is a risky pick with other talented players sandwiched around him.
4. Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams)
Kyren Williams was a volume king in 2024, commanding an 85% snap share and excelling at the goal line, which helped him record back-to-back 1,100-plus-yard seasons and 26 total touchdowns over two years. However, his efficiency metrics paint a concerning picture: among 46 qualifying running backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt.
The Rams’ investment in running backs Blake Corum and rookie Jarquez Hunter, who impressed at Auburn, signals a potential shift with Williams’ inefficiency. Williams’ 2024 role as the unchallenged lead back is unlikely to hold, with snap share almost certainly dropping from the past two seasons. While he remains effective near the goal line, his lack of explosiveness and inefficiency will lead to more opportunities for other running backs in LA. With Williams being drafted within the top twelve running backs right now, I would be hesitant to invest in him based on the underlying stats.
5. Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Jaylen Warren’s value over his career has hinged on his receiving ability, as he’s not an effective runner. Last season, he ranked 96th in EPA, 40th in breakaway runs, and 33rd in evaded tackles, leading to another uninspiring 8.3 points per game.
With Najee Harris gone, Warren was expected to step into the RB1 role, but the Steelers’ draft pick, Kaleb Johnson, caps his potential. Johnson will slot right into the Najee Harris role within this offense and be the more valuable back in every format. Warren, on the other hand, ranked 46th in opportunity share last season and will likely be around that number again in 2025. Warren’s role is limited to passing downs, and we can’t buy into Aaron Rodgers checking the ball down will make him a viable option. Ranked as RB28, Warren’s ADP overvalues his contribution, especially in non-PPR formats.
