Every draft has its surprises, but some picks carry more risk than others. Sometimes the numbers don’t tell the full story, and certain players might not deliver the value their ADP implies. Let’s break down three players whose current ADPs raise concerns and require a closer look before you commit.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
ECR: 38th overall (Half-PPR), WR19 (Blitz Rankings)
Despite having strung together five consecutive 1,000 yard-campaigns and hauling in a career-best 13 touchdowns last year, I’m avoiding Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin at his current ADP. Currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in 12-team Half-PPR mock drafts, McLaurin commands a high-end WR2 price tag.
Though he had a career best year in 2024, all signs point toward a regression in 2025. Before scoring 13 TDs last year, McLaurin had only averaged 5 TDs per year over the course of his first five seasons, and has never had a season with more than 135 targets.
Despite finishing as WR6 overall in half-point PPR last year, his usage was not top tier. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he ranked 32nd in target share (21.7%), 26th in yards per route run (2.17), 30th in first-read share (26.8%), and 17th in first downs per route. The one outlier was his 12th rated 13-end zone targets, which I expect to come down (TD regression is real folks).
Looking at those data points, McLaurin should be ranked closer to a WR3/High-End Flex play. In addition, target competition from offseason acquisition Deebo Samuel Sr. coupled with McLaurin’s pending contract standoff gives me pause on the soon-to-be 30-year old’s current ADP of 35th overall (WR17).
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
ECR: 41st overall, RB15 (Blitz Rankings)
Breece Hall continues to be drafted as a borderline RB1, but there are several red flags that make him a risky pick at his current ADP. Through three NFL seasons with the Jets, Hall hasn’t eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards in a single campaign and has yet to score more than five rushing touchdowns in a season. While he contributes in the passing game, his career averages of 430 receiving yards and 2.5 TD catches per season suggest above-average, but not elite usage.
In 2024, Hall was a solid RB2, finishing as the RB17 overall, but ranked just 26th in red zone opportunities—a concerning figure for someone expected to return early-round fantasy value. The arrival of new head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand adds further uncertainty. Both have ties to Detroit’s run-heavy, multi-back system, and Glenn has openly mentioned plans to involve Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in New York’s backfield along with Hall.
With Justin Fields also in the mix and likely to command a high number of designed runs, Hall’s weekly volume and touchdown upside could take a serious hit. He also struggled against strong competition last year, averaging only 34.8 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry in four matchups versus top-10 run defenses. Given the combination of disappointing past production, a cloudy role, and a potentially crowded backfield, Hall may be overvalued at RB13 (according to Fantasy Pros).
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
ECR: 31st overall (Half-PPR), RB12 (Blitz Rankings)
Kyren Williams delivered an RB1 season in 2024, finishing as RB7 overall with an average of 17 PPR points per game. He led the Rams in snaps and touches, totaling 350 touches and nearly 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Yet, his efficiency metrics tell a different story.
In 2024, Williams’ yards per carry dropped to 4.1 from 5.0 the year before, despite trailing only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in carries with 316. In addition, Williams ranked near the bottom in the league among qualifying backs in explosive run rate (1.9%), missed tackle rate (13%), and yards created per touch (52nd). Those are not great indicators for a guy being drafted as a borderline RB1.
The Rams’ backfield depth chart also clouds his outlook. With Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter —third- and fourth-round draft picks in consecutive years—poised to siphon touches, Williams’ volume could take a hit. His involvement in the passing game is limited as well, running routes on just 26% of offensive snaps and earning an 8% target share (34th among running backs.)
While Williams’ workload could sustain his fantasy value, concerns around his efficiency make him a risky choice at his current ADP of 27th overall (RB12). Target backs like Alvin Kamara or Kenneth Walker III in the third and fourth rounds instead.
