The Thursday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins brings plenty of intrigue for fantasy managers in Week 3. Both teams are on different paths as the Dolphins are seeking their 1st win and the Bills look to move to 3-0. While there are not a lot of hard decisions for this game, there are still some borderline players that you should avoid starting tomorrow. Below, I’ll break down who you can trust in your lineups, who should stay on the bench, and which players fall into that tricky gray area for Thursday night.
Lock Them into Your Lineup
- Josh Allen QB (BUF)
- James Cook RB (BUF)
- De’Von Achane RB (MIA)
Strong Starts
Tyreek Hill WR (MIA)
After a quiet Week 1, Tyreek Hill reminded everyone of his ceiling by torching New England for 109 yards on six catches. With Buffalo’s defense potentially missing a few key players, Hill has the chance to exploit mismatches on Thursday Night Football. He has posted back-to-back weeks with at least seven targets, a strong indicator of sustained volume despite the dip in downfield production in Mike McDaniels’ offense. If Miami is forced into catch-up mode against the undefeated Bills, expect Hill to be heavily involved over other Dolphins pass catchers.
Dalton Kincaid TE (BUF)
Through two games, Dalton Kincaid has quietly become a steady streaming option at TE. He led the Bills with a 22% target share in Week 2 and has posted back-to-back games with four receptions. His ability to exploit soft spots in zone coverage lines up perfectly with Miami’s defensive struggles, as their linebackers have consistently allowed tight ends to work the middle of the field. Kincaid has also seen red-zone looks in consecutive weeks, giving him touchdown upside to pair with steady volume. While Dawson Knox remains part of the offense, Miami’s struggles on defense make him a strong start for TE-needy teams this week.
Players to Sit
Tua Tagovailoa QB (MIA)
Tua Tagovailoa carries too many red flags to trust. This year, he ranks 30th in QBR, 1st in interceptable passes, 24th in air yards per attempt, and 28th overall in fantasy points. The downfield struggles against zone coverage for the Dolphins have continued, and with Tua not being hyper-efficient / lacking rushing upside, he is hard to trust in fantasy. Tagovailoa also has a history of struggles against the Bills, throwing multiple interceptions in past matchups. Buffalo also runs zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and Tua ranks 30th among quarterbacks in passer rating against zone this year. Leave him on your bench.
Jaylen Waddle WR (MIA)
Jaylen Waddle is always tempting to start, but this week presents serious risks. His production has been capped by shorter routes, with his average depth of target dipping from previous years. He’s also entering Thursday with a shoulder issue after briefly leaving Week 1 and only finished third in Miami’s target share in Week 2. Historically, Waddle has underperformed against Buffalo, failing to top 50 yards in their last three meetings. With the Bills allowing just 124 passing yards per game through two weeks, the lowest in the league, Waddle is a risky FLEX play at best.
Joshua Palmer WR (BUF)
At first glance, Josh Palmer looks like he’s carving out a role in Buffalo’s offense, ranking second among Bills wideouts in catches (7), targets (12), and yards (108) through two games. However, the underlying usage metrics are troubling. Palmer ranks just 61st in route participation, 78th in snap share, and a concerning 77th in target separation, which suggests his opportunities may be more circumstantial than sustainable. While Miami’s defense has been highly vulnerable, allowing the league’s worst completion percentage (78.8%) and giving up 33 points per game, Palmer’s limited role and inefficiency make him a trap play. He profiles more as a depth receiver than a trusted fantasy starter.
On the Fence
Keon Coleman WR (BUF)
Week 1 was a breakout for Keon Coleman, who hauled in eight catches for 112 yards and a score. But Week 2 was a reminder of Buffalo’s game-script volatility, as the offense leaned run-heavy in a blowout win. Coleman finished with just three catches for 26 yards, getting shadowed by Sauce Gardner on over 50% of snaps. The good news? Miami’s defense has allowed the worst completion percentage in the NFL (78.8%) to start the season. Coleman is a bigger part of the offense than last year and should benefit if the game stays competitive. He’s boom-or-bust and should be considered as a flex play at best this week.
Khalil Shakir WR (BUF)
Khalil Shakir was quiet in Week 2 with only one catch for 12 yards, ending a 14-game streak of six or more targets. However, that was largely due to Buffalo cruising with a run-heavy approach. Shakir has proven to be a reliable option for Josh Allen, and his history against Miami is strong, with 11 catches on 12 targets across two games last season. With the Dolphins’ defense struggling and Shakir’s largely consistent workload over the past two seasons, he is worth consideration despite a slow start. While he may not provide a massive ceiling, his floor as a steady chain-mover is appealing in PPR formats.
