The No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) head to Tuscaloosa this weekend to face their fierce rival, the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1).
While the Volunteers have gone 2-1 against the Crimson Tide over the past three seasons, both victories were at home. However, Tennessee hasn’t won an away game against Alabama since 2003.
So, what must the Vols do to win on Saturday?
Control the Run
Both Tennessee and Alabama boast potent passing attacks led by two of the top statistical quarterbacks in the SEC. Vols quarterback Joey Aguilar leads the SEC with 1,680 passing yards and is tied for second in passing touchdowns with 14.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s Ty Simpson tops the SEC with 16 passing touchdowns and ranks second with 1,678 passing yards.
Given that both teams’ quarterbacks are performing at a similar level, one possible advantage for the Volunteers could be establishing a strong ground game. Currently, Tennessee has the No. 22 rushing offense, averaging 210 yards a game.
Additionally, Vols running back DeSean Bishop is coming off a career-high 146 rushing yards last week against Arkansas. Bishop also scored a touchdown and averaged 10.4 yards per attempt. He left the game early with an apparent lower-body injury, but head coach Josh Heupel teased that Bishop will play against the Crimson Tide:
So, how does Alabama’s rushing attack compare? Well, the Tide hasn’t had the same success it’s had in years past. They are currently averaging 126.5 yards per game, which places them at No. 101 in the country.
Additionally, Alabama’s top rusher, Jamarion Miller, isn’t among the top 20 in the SEC for rushing yards. Miller has only 267 yards and one touchdown through six games. He is also listed as questionable for Saturday’s game.
Since the Vols have a clear edge in the running game, they should capitalize on it. Additionally, Alabama ranks 94th nationally in rushing defense, so Tennessee may be able to establish the run early in this game.
Defense Needs to Step Up
Heading into 2025, Tennessee’s defense was expected to be a strong suit for the team; however, injuries have significantly impacted its success this season. The most significant loss for the defense was preseason All-American cornerback Jermod McCoy, who is still recovering from a torn ACL.
Currently, the Vols are No. 101 in the FBS in total defense, allowing an average of 393.8 yards per game.
Tennessee struggles in almost every defensive category, except for its exceptional pass rush, which is one of the best in the country. The defense currently ranks No. 5 in tackles for loss and No. 1 in team sacks, averaging 4.3 sacks per game. The Vols should cause plenty of havoc for Alabama’s offensive line, which ranks No. 92 in sacks allowed.
However, the Volunteers are not very good at stopping the run. In the past two games alone, the defense has allowed a combined 443 rushing yards against Arkansas and Mississippi State. Tennessee’s defense is currently No. 59 in the FBS in rushing defense.
If the Volunteers want to have a shot at beating the Crimson Tide, they will need to actively stop the run while preventing passes downfield. Even if Alabama doesn’t have the best running game, Simpson is still one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and he will shred Tennessee’s defense if they decide to blitz the whole game. The Vols will have to be patient with their defensive play calls if they want to neutralize the Tide’s offense.
Final Prediction: Alabama 38, Tennessee 35
Tennessee’s offense is one of the best in the country, but Alabama is no slouch. Simpson will be arguably the biggest threat to the Vols’ chances of winning. Considering that both offenses are potent, the most significant difference between these teams is their defenses, an area in which Tennessee struggles.
Both teams are expected to score a lot of points in this game; however, Alabama has a more well-rounded defense, which will likely carry it to victory. Perhaps the Volunteers can pull off an upset win, but it will likely be a couple of years before Tennessee ends its losing streak in Tuscaloosa.
