The fantasy football offseason is officially here, which means it’s time for some honest reflection on what went right — and what went very wrong. Every year, a handful of high-priced players fail to live up to expectations, and 2025 was no different. In this piece, I break down the biggest fantasy football busts of the season, how things unraveled for each player, and what fantasy managers can learn from it all heading into next year
2025 Fantasy Football Busts
Justin Jefferson WR (MIN)
Justin Jefferson was the defining fantasy football bust of 2025, not because of injury or declining talent, but because the environment around him finally broke what was assumed to be an unbreakable profile. Drafted as a consensus top-five pick and often the WR1 overall, Jefferson failed to come close to returning value at cost. He averaged just 11.9 PPR points per game, finishing outside the top 30 wide receivers and delivering only one 20-point performance all season. From Weeks 10 through 17, he scored fewer than nine fantasy points in six games, turning weekly lineup decisions into exercises in frustration. This was a player fantasy managers trusted as the safest asset in the game, yet his season exposed the limits of even elite volume. For the first time in his career, Jefferson’s production cratered in a way that could not be explained away by variance or bad luck.
The problem was not usage, as Jefferson continued to command elite target shares regardless of who was under center. The issue was quarterback play, timing, and offensive dysfunction that stripped efficiency from every aspect of the Vikings’ passing game. Jefferson averaged 77 receiving yards per game in contests without J.J. McCarthy, but that number dropped to just 48 yards when McCarthy returned to the lineup. Despite strong volume, inaccurate throws and poorly timed misses erased scoring opportunities and left Jefferson touchdown-dependent on a weekly basis. Even when Carson Wentz was clearly limited, he still delivered more catchable targets than McCarthy, underscoring how fragile Jefferson’s production became. Jefferson remains an elite talent and a first-round fantasy football consideration moving forward, but 2025 will be remembered as the season that definitively proved he was not quarterback-proof—and as one of the most painful busts fantasy managers have experienced in years.
Brian Thomas Jr WR (JAX)
Brian Thomas Jr. entered the 2025 fantasy football season as one of the most expensive second-year wide receivers after a league-winning rookie campaign. Drafted just outside the first round in most formats, Thomas was expected to build on his elite late-season run from 2024. Last season with Mac Jones under center he averaged 28.2 PPG to close the season, and with Trevor Lawrence + Liam Coen at head coach, the thought process was that he would be an elite WR this season. Instead, he finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in fantasy scoring despite appearing in 13 games. His production fell to just 10.1 PPR points per game, a sharp drop from his rookie efficiency. Thomas eclipsed 20 fantasy points only once all season and was held under four receptions in seven games. Over the course of the season, he fell to the WR3 in the pecking order behind Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington.
Looking ahead to 2026, Thomas’ fantasy football outlook comes down to role clarity and offensive intent rather than raw ability. The Jaguars began leaning into his strengths late in the year by increasing his usage on vertical routes and out-breaking concepts, where his speed and size combination is best utilized. That late-season shift resulted in higher air-yard totals and a noticeable rebound in efficiency, suggesting the skill set still translates when deployed correctly. With Trevor Lawrence remaining one of the league’s more aggressive downfield passers, there is a clear path for Thomas to reclaim relevance as an X-receiver if usage stabilizes. However, the presence of Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington caps his target ceiling and introduces weekly volatility. Thomas profiles as a high-variance fantasy football option heading into next year, offering WR2 upside if the downfield role sticks, but carrying real bust risk if the target hierarchy remains unchanged.
Ladd McConkey WR (LAC)
Ladd McConkey entered the season as a trendy breakout pick following a strong rookie finish. After Week 8 of last season, he averaged 17.6 PPG while having 197 yards in the Chargers’ playoff loss to the Texans. Drafted aggressively at the end of the second round, McConkey was expected to take that step forward and match that production this season. Instead, his role shrank as the offense diversified its targets. Quentin Johnston took a step forward, Keenan Allen had a big role to open the season, and Oronde Gadsden emerged as a serious threat at tight end. McConkey’s targets per game declined from his rookie season, and his yards per reception followed the same downward trajectory. He finished as a low-end WR3, well short of the value fantasy managers anticipated at his draft cost.
Looking ahead to 2026, McConkey’s fantasy football outlook hinges almost entirely on how the Chargers reshape their target hierarchy. Justin Herbert remains an elite quarterback capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers, which keeps McConkey firmly on the radar. Any reduction in Keenan Allen’s role, whether through age, contract decisions, or usage changes, would immediately raise McConkey’s weekly ceiling. McConkey’s ability to win from the slot and create separation still gives him a path to higher-volume usage if the offense leans more heavily on quick-hitting concepts. However, as long as Los Angeles prioritizes vertical threats and spreads targets evenly, McConkey’s margin for error will remain thin. He profiles as a potential bounce-back candidate at the right draft price.
Lamar Jackson QB (BAL)
Lamar Jackson entered the season as a premium quarterback option with expectations of elite weekly production. Drafted in the second round of most leagues, Jackson was priced as a positional difference-maker in an era where quarterback depth continued to grow. While his early-season output briefly justified that cost, injuries and usage shifts quickly altered the trajectory of his season. Jackson missed multiple games with hamstring and back injuries and never fully recaptured his explosiveness upon return. From Weeks 10 through 16, he averaged just 14.3 fantasy points per game, finishing outside the QB1 range in most weeks. Given the opportunity cost of passing on elite skill-position players, Jackson ultimately became one of the more damaging fantasy football busts of 2025.
The most alarming trend was the collapse of Jackson’s rushing production, which historically served as the foundation of his fantasy ceiling. In games where he played more than 70 percent of the snaps, Jackson averaged just 26.7 rushing yards per contest with only two rushing touchdowns. That represented a massive decline from prior seasons, where his rushing volume routinely insulated his fantasy value during down passing weeks. Without elite rushing output, Jackson became dependent on passing efficiency and touchdowns, neither of which were consistently available. Baltimore’s offense limited passing volume, further shrinking his margin for error in fantasy football lineups. Injuries explain part of the regression, so I believe that his rushing value will return in 2026, and so will his fantasy production.
Saquon Barkley RB (PHI)
Saquon Barkley entered the season coming off one of the most productive years of his career and was drafted accordingly. Selected as the second overall pick in many leagues, Barkley carried expectations of elite volume, efficiency, and week-winning upside. Last season, he had the best year of his career, totalling over 2000 yards and scoring 15 touchdowns. Instead, his production fell well short of that price tag, finishing as the RB14 overall and RB15 in points per game. While those numbers appear serviceable in isolation, they represented a massive failure relative to cost. Barkley struggled to generate consistent explosive plays, a critical component of his previous fantasy dominance. As a result, he quickly emerged as one of the biggest fantasy football busts of the season.
Efficiency decline was the defining factor behind Barkley’s disappointing year. His yards per carry dropped to 4.1 after averaging 5.8 the season prior, signaling a noticeable loss of burst. Barkley recorded just four runs of 20 or more yards all season, compared to 17 such runs the year before. Philadelphia’s offense fluctuated week to week, limiting red-zone opportunities and favorable game scripts. When compared to other first-round running backs, Barkley consistently lagged behind in ceiling outcomes. Even though he remained a usable fantasy starter, his inability to return elite value cemented his status as a fantasy football bust at a cost. It will be interesting to see if Barkley can return to his elite status next season.
TJ Hockenson TE (MIN)
T.J. Hockenson entered 2025 as a top-tier tight end option following an injury-shortened 2024 campaign. Drafted as a top-six tight end in most leagues, Hockenson was expected to reassert himself as a positional advantage. When he returned from his ACL injury last year, he had double-digit points in three of five games. Instead, he finished outside the top 25 at the position, averaging just 7.5 PPR points per game. Minnesota’s unstable quarterback situation severely limited the offense’s passing efficiency and consistency. Hockenson scored only three touchdowns and surpassed double-digit fantasy points in just four games all season. Over the course of the season, Hockenson went from a strong start to being benched to being dropped in most leagues.
The decline was rooted in both usage and offensive dysfunction rather than individual ability alone. Hockenson was frequently asked to stay in and block as the Vikings attempted to protect their inexperienced quarterbacks while the offensive line struggled. His target share dipped, and he often became the third or fourth read within the progression for a team whose passing rate significantly decreased this season. With many of the waiver wire tight ends having breakout seasons, he became expendable. As a result, Hockenson is off of the fantasy radar heading into next season. Unless his usage changes drastically, we could be looking at the end of Hockenson’s strong production in fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard RB (CAR)
Chuba Hubbard entered the 2025 fantasy season with strong momentum after a productive breakout year. Last year, Hubbard amassed over 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was drafted as a reliable RB2 with an ADP in the early fourth round. Hubbard was expected to handle a featured workload. He opened the season with two strong games before his role and production rapidly deteriorated. From Week 3 onward, Hubbard averaged just 7.3 PPR points per game and became increasingly touchdown-dependent. Carolina shifted toward Rico Dowdle as the primary back, relegating Hubbard to a secondary role. For fantasy managers, the sudden loss of volume made Hubbard expendable on rosters.
Efficiency metrics further highlighted Hubbard’s regression throughout the year. He failed to record a single explosive run on over 100 rushing attempts, an alarming indicator for a volume-dependent back. Hubbard was outperformed by Dowdle in yards per attempt, yards after contact, and overall effectiveness. A midseason calf injury briefly masked the role change, but his production never recovered upon return. During the fantasy playoffs, he averaged fewer than five PPR points per game, offering no lineup utility. Without a change in situation, Hubbard’s 2026 season will likely result in similar production. With Carolina’s money tied up in him over the next two seasons, I would not be surprised if he gets another opportunity.
Kaleb Johnson RB (PIT)
Kaleb Johnson entered the 2025 fantasy football season as a popular mid-round rookie pick with a clear path to opportunity. Selected by Pittsburgh in the third round, Johnson was expected to contribute immediately after the team moved on from Najee Harris. During his last college season, he totaled over 1500 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns with the expectation that he would be in line for early down work this year. Instead, he never earned the coaching staff’s trust and spent most of the season buried on the depth chart. Johnson appeared in just 10 games, often as a healthy scratch, and logged only 28 rushing attempts. His total fantasy output failed to crack relevance this season. Given the preseason expectations, he emerged as one of the most definitive rookie fantasy football busts of the year.
The warning signs became evident once the season began, as Johnson opened the year as the team’s RB3. His limited opportunities produced minimal yardage, and he failed to generate explosive plays when on the field. Jaylen Warren quickly established himself as the superior option, eliminating any chance of a meaningful role. Even in favorable game scripts, Johnson remained an afterthought within the offense. Dynasty managers who invested early were left without usable production or clarity for the future. Johnson’s rookie season reinforced how fragile opportunity-based projections can be, cementing his status as a fantasy football bust.
Honorable Mentions
- Baker Mayfield QB (TB)
- Isiah Pacheco RB (KC)
- DJ Moore WR (CHI)
- Xavier Worthy WR (KC)
- Jerry Jeudy WR (CLE)
- Evan Engram TE (DEN)
- David Njoku TE (CLE)
