With Selection Sunday behind us, the 68 teams have been revealed, and the first four games kick off tomorrow night. In an era dominated by the transfer portal and NIL, last year’s tournament saw the magic of March Madness be silenced, as for just the second time in tournament history, all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. While history could be destined to repeat itself, there are plenty of lower-seeded squads that have the quality of talent to break the new school narrative. Here are the five teams that can bust everyone’s bracket.
(All odds are by DraftKings)
11. Miami (OH) RedHawks
Until losing to UMass in the MAC quarterfinals, Miami (OH) was almost certain to be put in the tournament, with no strings attached. However, since the loss, the committee has shunned the now 1-loss RedHawks, forcing them to battle through the first four. While the end of their regular season and lone conference playoff game were less than ideal (three consecutive two-point wins and the UMass loss), this is a team that dominated all season.
The RedHawks were easily one of the premier scoring teams in Division I this season, ranking second in points per game (90.7), first in field goal percentage (52.44%), and 25th in three-pointers made per game (10.4). This offense isn’t dominated by just one player either. Miami (OH) had seven double-digit point scorers, with four of the seven shooting 50% or better from the field. Likewise, four of the seven shot 39% or better from beyond the arc.
Regular-season scoring success doesn’t always translate to the tournament, but this RedHawks team is undeniable. Had their season taken place in one of the bigger conferences, Miami (OH) would have been one of the top seeds in the tournament. Just to get a chance at the big dance, the RedHawks start with the SMU Mustangs, entering the matchup as underdogs. While this team is very guard-heavy, they only concede a two-rebound disadvantage against their opponent.
While having a two or three-loss record in one of the top conferences will always be valued more, let’s not forget that Miami (OH) from week 12 through the end of the regular season.
Bets for Miami (OH): Moneyline vs. SMU (+250), Sweet 16 appearance (+10000)
9. St. Louis Billikens
Staying on track with offensive efficiency, the Billikens are sharp in nearly every way on the offensive end. St. Louis ranks top-10 in each of the following categories: field goal percentage (50.91%- 7th), fast break points (17.03/game- 6th), three-point percentage (40.09%- 2nd), scoring margin (17.7- 4th) and points per game (87.2/game- 10th). Not to mention that rank 11th in bench points (33.31/game) and tied for 21st in rebounds per game (39.94/game).
Their first round matchup is interesting, as they face the Georgia Bulldogs, who similarly rank high in fast break points and bench points. However, the flaw of Georgia in many of their losses was the efficiency of Jeremiah Wilkinson. In five of their eight losses (missed two losses), Wilkinson shot less than 33% from the field.
For St. Louis, they have seven players with nine or more points per game and average 18.3 assists per game as a team. This team will always look for the best shot, whether that’s in transition or from beyond the arc. This team has the perfect mix on the offensive end to stifle the larger conference opponents.
Bets for St. Louis: Moneyline vs. Georgia (+136), Sweet 16 appearance (+1500)
11. University of South Florida Bulls
In almost all aspects on both sides of the floor, the USF Bulls are a very complete team. Whether it’s their top-10 scoring offense (87.7) or top-five ability to crash the glass (42.73), USF has the chance to make a run from the eleven seed. The knock on the Bulls’ offense is the efficiency with which they score (43.9% FG% and 33.2% 3PT%). But where there’s room to improve in percentages, the Bulls make up for it by cleaning up on the offensive glass to lead to second chance points (15.48 offensive rebounds per game- 3rd).
Paired with the offensive success is the way they operate defensively, causing controlled chaos, averaging 9.3 steals per game. The steals advantage is another reason why they are tied for 27th in turnover margin (3.1). While the offense is primarily run through Wes Enis and Izaiyah Nelson, the Bulls can go five deep offensively if their top-two scorers get bottled.
In the first round, they draw the Louisville Cardinals, who were very successful in the always competitive ACC. If USF can get past Louisville, the task doesn’t get much easier, as the East region is easily the most stacked of the tournament. And yet, the USF squad has all the makings of a Cinderella story.
Bets for USF: Moneyline vs. Louisville (+185), Sweet 16 appearance (+1200)
12. High Point Panthers
After winning the Big South Conference championship, the High Point Panthers drew the 12th seed in the West region. Despite being a lower seed, this Panthers team was dominant against every opponent who came across their path, ranking first in Division I in scoring margin (19.7). That stat was in large part due to the team’s scoring ability, averaging 90 points per game, third best this season. The scoring was due to the way they distributed the ball (16.3 assists per game- 48th) and protected the ball (1.74 assist/turnover ratio- 13th).
High Point isn’t a lights-out three-point shooting team (35.6%), but they find other ways to score. Winning the turnover battle was a key reason (7.1 turnover margin- 2nd). In place of three-point shooting efficiency, the Panthers worked their way to the charity stripe nearly 27 times per game, good for fifth in D-I.
They draw the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers, with 20-point-per-game scorer Nick Boyd and 19-point-per-game scorer John Blackwell, who had two 30+ point games in the Big Ten tournament. The Badgers’ success is dependent on Boyd and Blackwell getting to their spots. If the Panthers can slow them down even the slightest bit, their offense will make up for the rest and allow them to keep dancing on.
Bets for High Point: Moneyline vs. Wisconsin (+370), Sweet 16 appearance (+3000)
11. VCU Rams
Sometimes, success in the national tournament is about the quality of the team. For others, it’s about getting hot at the right time. It could also be something that happens to your opponent. All three seem to be aligning for the VCU Rams on the heels of winning the Atlantic 10 conference championship. The Rams are a solid all-around team, averaging 81.6 points per game, knocking down the three at a 36.7% clip, and having four players with 4.5+ rebounds per game.
As for being hot at the right time, finishing their season on a 16-1 run shows how hot the Rams are, with their only loss being to the St. Louis Billikens. As for something happening to their opponent, superstar freshman Caleb Wilson going down with an injury is a nightmare scenario for the UNC Tar Heels, but a dream for VCU. While VCU could’ve given fits to the Tar Heels with Wilson on the floor, losing nearly 20 points and 10 rebounds a game could very much give the Rams the definitive edge they needed.
Beyond the first round, VCU would most likely face the Illinois Fighting Illini, who had a forgetful end to the season, finishing 6-5 across February and early March. After that, VCU could face any of the four in No. 2 Houston, No. 7 St. Mary’s, No. 10 Texas A&M, or miracle No 15. Idaho. This feels like the best spot for a low seed to make a deep run.
Bets for VCU: Moneyline vs. UNC (+114), Sweet 16 appearance (+750), Elite 8 appearance (+3500)
