Preseason win totals are one of the best ways to gauge both expectation and perception across college football heading into a new season. Every number tells a story, whether it’s a contender trusted to take the next step, a sleeper quietly gaining momentum, or a big-name program being overvalued by the market. As the 2026 season approaches, let’s dive into the win totals to find the best values, biggest traps, and most intriguing debates.
All win totals and lines are from FanDuel.
Biggest Traps
LSU
A new era of Tigers football begins in Death Valley this fall as Lane Kiffin takes over at the helm. After bringing in one of the highest-rated portal classes in 2026, LSU’s win total is set at 8.5 next season. At first glance, many will see that roster and assume the Tigers are a lock for ten wins and a playoff berth, but not so fast. Across Kiffin’s college stops, he has exceeded eight wins in his first season only once (at Florida Atlantic). Even in the shortened 2020 season, he went just 5–5 in his first year at Ole Miss. LSU faces road trips to Ole Miss, Auburn, and Tennessee, and also hosts non-conference Clemson, plus Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas. While I’m high on Kiffin’s long-term outlook at LSU, it’s wise to pump the brakes for now.
Projection: UNDER 8.5 (+110)
Arizona State
While the Sun Devils look to rebound from an injury-filled disappointment in 2025, Kenny Dillingham turned to the portal to replace some of his top production. Top wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is off to the NFL, star quarterback Sam Leavitt joined previously mentioned LSU, and starting running back Raleek Brown transferred to Texas.
I like the offensive additions in quarterback Cutter Boley (Kentucky), receivers Omarion Miller (Colorado) and Reed Harris (Boston College), and 1,000-yard rusher Marquis Gillis from Delaware State. My main concerns are on the defensive side of the ball: this unit ranked 56th last season in total defense and now has to replace nearly every starter from that group. The Sun Devils return just three starters from the 2025 roster and face a brutal slate with trips to Texas A&M, Texas Tech, BYU, and Arizona, plus home dates against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The Sun Devils have their work cut out for them in 2026.
Projection: UNDER 6.5 (-112)
Baylor
Sticking in the Big 12, let’s go down to Waco, Texas, where Dave Aranda is looking to bounce back from a very disappointing 2025 campaign. The biggest storyline for Baylor is Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway and the promise he brings to the offense. The Bears will also look to improve on their last-place conference finish in sacks from 2025.
With only six total starters returning from last season’s roster, this is truly a make-or-break year for Aranda, who enters his seventh season with a 36–37 overall record. The barometer game will be Week 1 against Auburn in Atlanta, with other key road trips to Arizona State and UCF, plus a very difficult closing stretch against the projected top three teams in the conference: at BYU, vs. Texas Tech, and at Houston. It won’t be easy for the Bears in 2026.
Projection: UNDER 6.5 (-108)
Intriguing Lines
Washington
I think the Demond Williams transfer-portal drama is being baked too heavily into this number. FanDuel set Washington’s win total at 7.5, and I project the Huskies to go over that by a comfortable margin, thinking the line should’ve been 8.5.
This team ranks 15th nationally in returning production and also added a top-17 combined (recruiting and portal) class. I expect Washington to have strong play along both lines of scrimmage, plus a quality receiver duo in Christian Moss and Dezman Roebuck, a solid returning linebacker group, and a defensive backfield with significant young upside building off last season.
My one current concern is running back Jordan Washington, who was airlifted to the hospital during the third spring practice. His exact status is unknown, though early indications are that he appears to be okay.
Washington’s schedule is packed with swing games, including at USC, home dates with Iowa and Penn State, and a road trip to Nebraska. The Huskies will likely be underdogs in their final two games, against Indiana and at Oregon. I view Washington as a fringe playoff contender in 2026 and expect them to be highly competitive next season.
Projection: OVER 7.5 (-148)
Virginia Tech
FanDuel has set a modest bar for Virginia Tech in the ACC. After a 3–9 season, the Hokies are aiming for a quick turnaround under new head coach James Franklin. With a 2026 win total of 6.5, there’s room for the program to reset expectations in Blacksburg.
The key question in Virginia Tech’s rebuild is the quarterback battle. Ethan Grunkemeyer is trying to hold off Bryce Baker and freshman Troy Huhn.
The offensive line is the biggest concern. Despite a No. 21 national talent ranking, the unit struggled in 2025, and left tackle Logan Howland is out for the entire spring. In a run-heavy (58%) scheme under first-time play-caller OC Ty Howle, the Hokies’ season likely hinges on how quickly the line comes together.
Defensively, cornerback is a clear strength. Jaquez White, Cam Chadwick, Isaiah Brown-Murray, and Thomas Williams give DC Brent Pry an ACC-caliber secondary to build around.
The schedule sets up an early barometer. Virginia Tech opens with VMI and Old Dominion before a Week 3 trip to Maryland, where the Hokies are +1.5. That game should be the first real test of how quickly Franklin can turn buzz into wins. Their schedule also has major swing games such as Pitt, at Cal, vs Georgia Tech, and home vs Virginia. If everything aligns, this is an 8-4 football team.
Projection: OVER 6.5 (-148)
Best Bets (for now)
Missouri
The Tigers return one of the top running back duos in the country in Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts, who combined for more than 2,400 rushing yards last season. They’ll run behind an elite offensive line featuring Cayden Green, Dominick Giudice, and Josh Atkins, who is expected to return from injury sometime this fall.
I believe Ole Miss transfer Austin Simmons will have the edge at quarterback after being replaced last season in Oxford. My major concern is the defensive line, which is undergoing significant turnover from last year.
Still, with Hardy and Roberts leading the way and Eli Drinkwitz standing as one of the steadiest coaches in college football, I think the Tigers can take care of business in the games where they’re favored and steal a couple of swing games against either Texas A&M or Florida at home.
Projection: OVER 6.5 (-140)
Iowa
The model of consistency, Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes once again have their win total set at 7.5 this season. Iowa has finished 7–5 or better and reached a bowl game every year since 2013, except for the shortened 2020 season, when they still went 6–2. My philosophy is simple: as long as Kirk Ferentz is the head coach, the Hawkeyes will have a winning record. On top of that, all four of Iowa’s losses last season came by just one score. It’s not a guaranteed lock, but if history and the numbers are any indication, Iowa should finish over 7.5 wins.
Projection: OVER 7.5 (-122)
