Jonathan Taylor – RB 5 (ECR)
Jonathan Taylor has been a mainstay in the first round over the past five years, even taking the consensus overall number one spot in 2022. He earned that prestigious spot after a historic 2021, in which he delivered 20 total touchdowns, 1,811 rushing yards, and an additional 360 yards through the air. He has been an incredible player in an Indianapolis Colts uniform.
BUT… that may be the issue: he is in an Indianapolis Colts uniform. They collapsed in 2024, losing to the Giants in Week 17 and missing out on their playoff spot in an all-time (recent) dysfunction-off. Not that Taylor did anything to hurt their chances down the stretch, as he delivered an outstanding league-winning performance, being the RB1 in the Fantasy Semifinals and Fantasy Championships.
Quick aside… I may be the only person to lose three fantasy semifinals with Jonathan Taylor in their lineup. Yes… I lost three Fantasy Semifinals… with Jonathan Taylor… Tough Scene.
The Indianapolis Colts set a high standard for themselves during the Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck eras, but ever since Luck’s surprise retirement after the 2018 season, they have experienced tremendous dysfunction. They’ve retreaded old QBs like Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Philip Rivers, and then drafted an athletic but often injured Anthony Richardson, who struggles to complete passes.
The Colts addressed their needs in the secondary with the likes of Charvarius Ward, Cam Bynum, and Cory Ballentine, but they failed to bring in offensive line help to complement future Hall of Famer Quenton Nelson and aid Richardson/Taylor.
They also brought in Daniel Jones, who has a special place in my heart, but not for his quarterbacking play. This is not the type of QB competition that is needed in Indianapolis. Taylor can struggle if they have no passing game. His usage goes way up, which is good for fantasy at the moment, but Taylor has issues staying on the field that can flare up at the worst times.
Taylor has missed 16 games over the past three seasons. These injuries often force him to miss lengthy periods, and if you draft him at his current price, it could be very detrimental to your fantasy team in the weeks he misses.
He’s often drafted in the first round or at the top of the second, so you may ask, “What’s he doing right?” Taylor is still one of the best running backs in the NFL when he is on the field. He also ranks top 10 in rushing explosiveness, which puts him in a category that not many others can consistently hit. One other thing about Jonathan Taylor is that he is only 26 years old, which is shockingly young compared to how long he has been in the NFL, and will remain 26 through the 2025 season. His red-zone usage is also a very valuable trait for him, although Richardson has seemed to vulture a few over the last couple of years.
Overall, Jonathan Taylor, for the first time in his career, has given me real concerns early in Preseason 2025. His ADP seems to be dropping slightly early in this preseason, which makes me more interested in drafting him at a lower cost (back of the second round or early third round), but we shall see if that trend continues. I am a huge Jonathan Taylor fan, but his situation hasn’t improved as we move deeper into his career. I will most likely draft him at a lower cost, but not in every spot like in years past.
Jonathan Taylor’s Panic Meter = 4/10
Breece Hall
Depending on who you spoke to, Breece Hall was the second overall running back drafted in 2024. This was based on the merit that he would receive every Aaron Rodgers check-down in a much better offense for the New York Jets. The sad part was… That ‘much better offense’ never came for the Jets last season. Breece Hall was better the previous year with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle (fantasy-wise). His top-five ADP last year was well underperformed.
Hall ended up with only 876 rushing yards, 483 receiving yards, and 8 total touchdowns. An exciting year for maybe a breakout player, but for a top-five guy, it was very disappointing. Hall was also two years removed from the torn ACL he suffered in 2022. His snap share increased by 11%, while his opportunity share remained the same, though he lost minimal carries and targets.
We also had an early Braelon Allen scare in 2024 that sporadically popped up throughout the season, costing Hall touches and fantasy points. This is not a large concern for me when laying out the full picture of Breece Hall in 2025, but it does creep into the back of my mind.
Some may chalk this up to a “Jetsy” season, but it raises real concerns for me as we move towards 2025. His cost is WAY down as well, which could make for an interesting play, but his lack of production in 2024 makes me very worried, along with the decreased metrics.
The Jets also turned to Justin Fields for a two-year experiment, which could place the Jets in another no-man’s land season. Fields may take some of the opportunity away from Hall, but he could also open up the run game. We will see what that brings, but it adds another layer to the Breece Hall mystery in 2025.
Hall scares me far more than Jonathan Taylor. There are many more factors of concern than just a bad team situation. You could point out three to four other factors that could make him difficult to deal with. His preseason Underdog ADP is around 30, which makes him a mid-third-round guy. This is a much lower cost than last season and could be worth taking a shot on. Hall is a guy with talent, and at that cost, it may be a spot in the draft where I would be willing to take him—if my earlier picks allow me to go there—but I would not feel great about it.
Breece Hall’s Panic Meter = 7/10
Isiah Pacheco – RB 25 (ECR)
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco is entering his fourth and very pivotal season in 2025. Early on, it looked like Pacheco was poised to be the NFL’s next grittiest running back in the NFL. He nearly reached 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, as well as five and nine touchdowns in respective seasons. The two-time Super Bowl Champion was there for the three-peat season in 2024, but got injured late in a Week 2 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Pacheco looked strong in the first two weeks of 2024. He appeared to be the same guy we drafted and expected him to be, rushing for 189 yards and a touchdown in his first two games. However, when he came back for a Week 13 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, he was not the same player. We all anticipated Pacheco to be eased into the offense as he came back, but his usage was minimal. He never reached 15 carries, and in the majority of weeks, he had under 10 carries. He also had only five red-zone carries from Week 13 through the end of the playoffs (Super Bowl). Just 5! And he only rushed above 50 yards once since his return. The Chiefs even moved away from using him through the end of the playoffs.
Pacheco’s ADP is at an all-time low, excluding his rookie year, where we did not know the Chiefs would feature him as a back. His Underdog ADP is around 104 as we discuss his future this preseason. This price (round 9) is very easy to swallow, but his future is uncertain. With the lack of trust they displayed in him, health concerns, and a potential new draft day running back for the Chiefs (in a stacked class), Isaiah Pacheco may not be draftable.
I like taking proven players late in drafts. For example, Tony Pollard last season was well worth the late price tag last season. But Pacheco might be an RB that just fizzles out too soon. If you’re taking an approach to hopefully take him late as one of your two starting RBs, I would think again, as the risk could be very detrimental to your full-season outlook. If his success makes him a luxury piece for your squad, then give it a shot, it could be just the piece you need to put you over the edge, but the strategy in Pacheco heading into 2025 would not be one of a solid floor. It could bottom out, and I am more concerned about Pacheco than I am with Hall or Taylor.