Drafting the right quarterback can make or break your fantasy season. But sometimes, the biggest names come with the biggest risks. Whether it’s a run-heavy scheme, inflated stats from last year, or plain old inconsistency, not every QB with a shiny ADP is worth the price.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rank: QB6
Baker Mayfield thrived in 2024 under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, finishing as a top-three fantasy quarterback with a 7.2% touchdown rate and a career-high 22 rushing yards per game.. He recorded 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, ranking third and second among quarterbacks, respectively. However, Coen’s departure introduces significant regression risk. Mayfield’s touchdown rate far exceeded his previous career high of 5.6% and will see touchdown regression this season.
The Buccaneers’ offense is incredibly talented and added Emeka Egbuka in the draft, but new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s usage of these talented players is yet to be seen. We are drafting Baker at his ceiling right now as the QB6. The rushing upside is not enough for me to reach on him early in a deep quarterback draft this season.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (QB12)
Justin Herbert’s arm talent is undeniable, but his fantasy value is being held back by the Chargers’ run-heavy, slow-paced offense. Under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, Los Angeles played it safe last year, ranking among the slowest teams.
Herbert averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game and ended the season with 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only 3 picks. Solid numbers, but not the kind that win fantasy leagues.
Even with exciting young receivers like Ladd McConkey and rookie Tre Harris, plus the return of Mike Williams, the Chargers doubled down on the run by adding Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton. Unless the offense opens up, Herbert is stuck as a mid-tier QB2, not worth his current draft price.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (QB10)
Jared Goff defied expectations in 2024, posting career highs in passing yards (4,629) and touchdowns (37) while finishing as the QB6 overall. His efficiency was off the charts, completing 72.4% of his passes while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, thanks to Ben Johnson’s brilliant play-calling and a stellar offensive line.
But there are some red flags heading into 2025. Goff outperformed his expected fantasy numbers by a wide margin, and with Ben Johnson gone, along with two key interior linemen, Detroit’s offense could take a step back. Add in Goff’s lack of rushing upside and a run-heavy attack led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and it’s hard to see him repeating last year’s magic.
He’s being drafted near his ceiling as a top-10 QB, but you’re better off targeting a mobile QB with more upside in that range.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (QB10)
Kyler Murray finally played a full season in 2024 and reminded everyone why he’s such a fantasy wild card. He finished as the QB10 and racked up 572 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, elite numbers on the ground. But his week-to-week inconsistency made him tough to trust, with four games over 25 points and five games under 12 points.
He struggled to get in rhythm with Marvin Harrison Jr., and Arizona’s offense under Drew Petzing lacked the explosiveness of years past. With no big additions this offseason and a tough 2025 schedule ahead, Murray’s boom or bust nature makes him a risky low-end QB1. If you want week-to-week stability at QB, he might not be your guy.
Justin Fields, New York Jets (QB13)
Justin Fields’ electrifying rushing ability fueled offseason hype, pushing his ADP to QB13. However, his move to the Jets under new head coach Aaron Glenn raises red flags. Fields’ 2024 fantasy output was underwhelming outside of one monster game, and his passing limitations were evident in a Steelers offense that didn’t fully utilize his legs.
The Jets’ passing attack hinges on Garrett Wilson, with little depth at receiver, and it’s uncertain if the offensive scheme will maximize Fields’ running. A brutal strength of schedule further dims his outlook. Compared to quarterbacks like Brock Purdy or Caleb Williams in the same range, Fields’ unproven passing and situational concerns make him a risky bet.
