Thunder 1Q -3.5 (-115 @FanDuel)
The Thunder have been a reliable first-quarter bet all year, ranking 3rd in overall 1Q ATS and 4th at home. They’re 7-4 1Q ATS at home in the playoffs and 3-1 in this series, while the Pacers have struggled early on the road with a 4-6 1Q ATS playoff record and the 10th-worst mark in the league during the regular season.
OKC has the league’s best 1Q ATS margin (+4.2), and an even better edge at home (+4.9). When comparing that to Indiana’s 4th worst away 1Q margin (-2.3), this spread should be closer to -5.5 than the -3.5 books are giving. The Thunder will look to come out hot at home after a hard-fought win on the road last week. Take the home team with confidence.