The only thing that beats the start of the NFL season is being able to cash out on your favorite matchups. So, let’s turn hours of repetitive media coverage and brain-numbing fantasy research into something tangible.
Unfortunately, I can’t just pay you for enduring yet another “know-it-all” sports article, but I can offer some key stats to know ahead of the remaining Week 1 games.
Proceed with caution…..and please don’t kill the messenger.
1. Myles Garrett Has Joe Burrow’s Number
Stat: Garrett sacked Burrow more than anyone -10 sacks in eight games and 20 hits overall.
Burrow’s talent is undeniable even if you don’t consider yourself a nauseating, Burrow-obsessed “fan boy” . Successful offensives thrive on opportunity with limited opportunities translating to stagnant and ineffective offenses. The Browns’ defense could limit Burrow’s opportunities along with the Bengals‘ dynamic receivers.
The Myles Garrett stat speaks for itself, so here’s another: last season, the Bengals allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Consider Njoku a viable fantasy option for the Browns in a game with the second- highest projected total for Week 1.
Expect the Bengals to win, but don’t overlook the Browns when making your picks.
2. Bears Open Against the Competitive NFC North
Stat: The Bears start their season facing the Vikings and the Lions in Week 2 — the toughest two-game start for any team based on 2024 records.
Despite the perceived difficulty ahead of the Bears’ Week 1 matchup, the Vikings allowed the most fantasy points and 4th most receiving yards to outsider receivers last season. An improved Bears’ O-line could help Williams facilitate breakout performances for receivers; Odunze and Moore.
JJ McCarthy could still be working out some kinks alongside a Vikings team that has only had two games with 30 or more carries in the past three seasons. If Caleb rises to the occasion, the Bears could be a great team to target this week.
3. The Saints Are Week 1 Specialists?
Stat: The Saints have won six straight season openers – longest active streak in the NFL and a franchise record. No NFC team has had a longer such streak since the 1984-92 Bears, with nine.
Concerns around the Saints deteriorated offense are justified with reasonable assumptions towards a loss on Sunday. Rattler has a tough assignment vs. the Cardinals, but Kamara’s versatility and Grupe’s field goals could extend the Saints’ streak. The past six opening games included 2-4 field goals from Grupe or their former kicker, Will Lutz.
I’ve got my money on the Cardinals, but you can never underestimate any team in the NFL, including a team led by an 0-6 Spencer Rattler.
READ MORE: Arizona Cardinals Week 1 Preview vs. New Orleans Saints
4. Panthers’ Run Defense Was the League’s Worst in 2024
Stat: The Carolina Panthers finished dead last in run defense last season, allowing 179.8 rushing yards per game.
Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby look like great plays against a lackluster Panthers‘ defense. Etienne Jr. is number one on the Jaguars’ depth chart despite Bigsby recording 7 rushing touchdowns last year. If you prefer a pass-catching back to exploit the Panthers’ inability to pressure the passer (ranked worst last season) then Etienne Jr. is your guy.
Before you get too excited for the Jaguars, they have lost six straight games in September. Fingers crossed that Liam Coen and James Gladstone are ushering in a new era, but it’s still unclear if the dramatic changes throughout the organization are making a difference.
A Few Extra Stats to Know
- Bengals’ defense ranked 25th in run stop win rate (28.9%) last season.
- Falcons have won four out of five meetings (two straight) against the Bucs.
- Steelers RB Jaylen Warren has never surpassed 15 rushing attempts in a game.
- Broncos’ run defense allowed 94 rushing yards per game last season, third in the NFL.
- Lions QB Jared Goff has averaged just 206 passing yards per game in his past four outings at Lambeau Field, with multiple games with less than 14 fantasy points.
