It’s time for the national championship game. We’ve reached the end of our college football season, and it’s time to find out which team will take the crown.
If you know anyone who missed the games last week, tell them Indiana did it again. The Hoosiers bludgeoned Oregon 56-22, reaching a score of 42-7 in the 3rd quarter—a far cry from these two teams’ first matchup in the regular season. Miami won by using its usual formula, running for 191 yards on the ground. Ole Miss put up a fight, totaling 400 yards of offense, but it was not enough. Carson Beck almost matched Trinidad Chambliss’s passing yardage, which is a recipe for disaster for Ole Miss.
#10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana
Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
Spread: Indiana (-9)
Over/Under: 47
ML: Indiana (-350), Miami (+280)
Indiana’s Hot Streak
If you look at Indiana’s pre-playoff games, including the regular season and the Big Ten Championship, the Hoosiers faced 4 teams ranked in the FEI Top-20. They beat those teams by 5.25 PPG.
Since the Hoosiers reached the College Football Playoff, they have faced 2 teams in the FEI Top-12 and beaten them by 34.5 PPG.
Against the four formerly mentioned Top-20 opponents, Indiana scored 22.5 PPG. During the playoffs, Indiana has averaged 47 PPG.
Indiana is playing some of the best football that any of us has ever seen over its last two games. Can that hot streak continue for a third game? Let’s talk about it.
Miami’s Defensive Front
You can’t get too far into this preview without mentioning possibly the best unit on the field. Miami’s front has proven itself again and again. In the College Football Playoff, the Hurricanes have held their opponents to a combined 3.4 YPC. They have totaled 13 sacks and 18 TFLs in three games.
In the playoffs, Rueben Bain has totaled 4 sacks and 17 QB hurries. Akheem Mesidor has totaled 3 sacks and 16 QB hurries. This duo has been completely unstoppable. As a whole, the defense has totaled 56 QB hurries in the last three games.
Indiana’s OL
Fernando Mendoza has been sacked 22 times. That’s just 1.46 sacks per game. Oregon sacked Mendoza just once. Alabama sacked him three times, with two of those occurring on the first drive of the game. Mendoza has been sacked just twice in his last 7 quarters of play.
In the run game, the Hoosiers have been college football’s model of efficiency. Indiana has faced three Top-10 opponents in a row. In those games, Indiana’s RBs earned 6.3 YPC against Oregon, 4.76 YPC against Alabama, and 4.15 YPC against Ohio State.
The Indiana OL has been a steady force. They average close to 6’5 and 315 pounds across the board. Their length and athleticism allow them to use a variety of runs, although their power has been most impressive. Despite running inside zone on more than half of its running plays, Indiana is still able to power through the interior of college football’s best defenses.
The QB Matchup
Folks, these boys are experienced. Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck combine for 10 years of college football experience and approximately 75 starts. They have attempted 2,281 passes, and each QB has played for two college football teams.
Mendoza’s game evolves around the intermediate-deep pass. Indiana makes a killing throwing back shoulder balls at or beyond the first down marker. Its wide receivers are old, big, and physical. They thrive in 1 on 1 opportunities down the field. On intermediate and deep passes, Mendoza has totaled 1,303 yards, 18 TDs, and 4 INTs. Miami’s pass rush will need to get home before Mendoza can find his guys downfield.
While able to hit the deep ball as well, Carson Beck’s style is a little more reserved. On passes that range from short to behind the line of scrimmage, Beck has totaled 1,741 yards. 68% of Beck’s attempts are behind the LOS, at the LOS, or within a few yards of the LOS. Beck has thrown 12 TDs on deep balls this season, but he has also thrown 6 INTs. Indiana’s secondary is experienced, and they play the ball when in the air.
Roster Comparison
Welcome to the NIL/Portal era of college football, where the two teams in the national championship game combine for 65 transfers. Transfers have accounted for 53.6% of Miami’s total starts and 65.4% of Indiana’s. 13 of Miami’s 22 starters transferred in, and 13 of Indiana’s 22 starters transferred in.
8 of Miami’s starters are in their 5th year of college football, as well as 7 of Indiana’s. If these are the two most disciplined teams in college football, it’s probably because their players have the most experience. According to College Football Nerds, 43 of Indiana’s players began playing college football in 2022 or before. For reference, Miami’s number is in the mid-20s.
Get used to this roster composition. Teams are beginning to stack 5th and 6th-year seniors based on their results. There’s a new formula in college football at the moment, and Indiana and Miami are prime examples.
My Prediction
The result of this game comes down to how well Indiana can protect Mendoza. Ole Miss showed that Miami’s defensive front can be somewhat slowed down. The Hurricanes, while hurrying Chambliss some, only sacked Chambliss once. I expect Cignetti to not only use the short passing game but also to maneuver the pocket post-snap. Mendoza is good at throwing on the move. Indiana’s OL is athletic enough to slide.
Miami’s offense has sputtered multiple times in these playoffs. Their lack of a downfield passing game can prevent them from stressing defenses. The Canes were able to stress Ole Miss a couple of times, but unlike Ole Miss, Indiana’s secondary will not bust assignments.
Miami’s OL wins through power. They will outweigh the Indiana DL by 40-50 pounds on average. However, no defense has forced Miami to play in a different style. Indiana will bring many slants and stunts. I expect the Hoosiers to force Miami’s OL out of its comfort zone a little bit.
The Hoosiers are simply hot. I don’t think Miami’s offense has what it takes to even stay in this game late.
Indiana: 31
Miami: 17
