Every year, we have players who surprise us. Players who were buried in the depth chart and finally got playing time. Players who were projected late in the draft vaulted to the top. Or players who were on the NFL’s radar, but turned themselves into high-end first-round picks.
Others, such as Caleb Downs, have been anticipated by the NFL for years. GMs, scouts, and coaches have known Downs was an elite prospect since before his first collegiate game. Jeremiyah Love, once a Top-5 RB recruit in the nation, has been on the NFL radar since his freshman season.
In this discussion, we’ll look at some of this draft’s biggest risers, and it starts at the very top with the current favorite to be the #1 overall pick.
Fernando Mendoza
2025 Stats: 3,535 yards, 41 TDs, 6 INTs
During his sophomore season at Cal, Mendoza was an average starter. He totaled 3,004 yards, 16 TDs, and 6 INTs, completing 68.7% of his passes. Other college football programs had their eye on him in the transfer portal, such as Indiana and Georgia, but the NFL Draft seemed like a fever dream at that point. Enter Curt Cignetti, who turned Mendoza into a machine.
Mendoza went from a replaceable starter to a 1st Team All-American, Maxwell Award Winner, Heisman Trophy Winner, and projected 1st overall draft pick. Mendoza represents one of the fastest rises in draft history and exactly what the transfer portal and college football are all about. Transferring to Indiana allowed Mendoza to play for a better coaching staff that helped him develop. From a 2-star prospect to the top of the draft, Mendoza is the prime example of what this list represents.
Arvell Reese
2025 Stats: 69 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6.5 Sacks
While not a 2 or 3-star prospect, Reese is a great example of being patient when sitting behind elite talent. Reese arrived at Ohio State as the #22 LB prospect, weighing just 210 pounds. He didn’t see the field during his freshman season, served as a backup during his sophomore season, then exploded into one of college football’s best defensive players, earning a place on an All-American team.
NFL scouts knew of Reese. He made some flash plays during backup duty in 2024. But to earn a spot as a potential #2 or #3 pick after just one season as a starter is remarkable. If Reese were projected in the 2nd or 3rd round, he wouldn’t be on this list, but his accomplishments in just 12 months cannot be ignored. Ohio State likely can’t believe it’s losing Reese after just 14 starts.
David Bailey
2025 Stats: 52 tackles, 19.5 TFLs, 14.5 Sacks
Bailey is another example of how the transfer portal is changing college football and affecting the NFL Draft. Bailey played three seasons at Stanford, never totaling more than 7 sacks or 8 TFLs. Without the transfer portal, Bailey likely has a similar fourth season at Stanford and becomes a mid- to late-round pick. Instead, Bailey transfers to Texas Tech, dominates the field, earns All-American honors, and is projected to be a Top 10 pick.
When the Texas Tech defense began dominating, most people likely glanced at the depth chart and asked, “Who is David Bailey, and how does he have this many sacks already?” Now, everyone knows David Bailey, a story of a player who earned himself tens of millions of dollars by having a breakout season.
Zion Young
2025 Stats: 42 tackles, 16.5 TFLs, 6.5 Sacks
Young was the ring leader of one of college football’s best defenses in the Missouri Tigers. Before arriving at Missouri two seasons ago, Young played two seasons at Michigan State, totaling just 2.5 sacks. In his first year at Missouri, Young totaled just 5.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. Fast forward another season, and Young tripled his production behind the line of scrimmage, becoming one of college football’s best defensive ends.
Young has vaulted himself into the Top 40-50 of the NFL Draft. He even dominated at the Senior Bowl, where NFL scouts got a very good look at his size, strength, and athleticism. After three years of below-average production, the light finally turned on for Zion Young. His potential as a 1st round pick rests on his performance at the NFL combine, but his Top 50 status is already guaranteed.
Ty Simpson
2025 Stats: 3,567 yards, 28 TDs, 5 INTs
Back in 2023, Simpson failed to beat out Jalen Milroe in the Alabama QB competition. He then contemplated transferring, saying that he didn’t believe he was good enough to play for Alabama. But in 2025, despite having one of college football’s worst offensive lines and running games, Simpson carried the Alabama offense to the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff.
Simpson’s lack of offensive support cannot be overstated. Ryan Williams forgot how to catch, the offensive line couldn’t block, and the running game was possibly the worst in Alabama’s history. Simpson, specifically in the first half of the season, put on highlight play after highlight play. His tight-window throws went viral, and his command at the line of scrimmage caught everyone’s eye. Simpson, who almost didn’t play for Alabama, has now earned a potential spot in the 1st round of the NFL Draft.
Monroe Freeling
2025 Stats: 85.1 PBLK Grade, 2 sacks allowed, 4 hurries allowed
Freeling started just 4 games at offensive tackle in 2024, but appeared in more. Freeling allowed 13 hurries in his appearances. In 2025, despite almost doubling his snap count and starting 12 games, Freeling lowered that number to just 4. Freeling flew under the radar for most of the season before his College Football Playoff tape sparked extreme interest from the NFL.
Not long after the season ended, Freeling was discussing a new deal to return to Georgia. The NFL came calling, informing him that he was receiving 1st round grades. This is not Georgia’s first OT to shoot up draft boards. Amarius Mims did this a few years ago. Freeling is a rare breed. He’s 6’7 320 pounds, and he’s very light on his feet. The NFL didn’t need much film to realize Freeling’s 1st-round talent.
Colton Hood
2025 Stats: 50 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 INT, 8 PDs
Hood is another example of the transfer portal changing college football. Hood spent one year at Auburn, one year at Colorado, and now one year at Tennessee. Hood played just 11 snaps at Auburn and 291 snaps at Colorado. Hood’s PFF coverage grade never broke 70. Hood then transferred to Tennessee, where he was expected to add depth behind Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson.
Hood exploded onto the scene for the Volunteers, becoming one of the best CBs in the SEC. His PFF coverage grade reached 80, and he quickly earned NFL recognition. Hood is now projected in the later part of the first round or the early part of the second round. Hood is a perfect example of a modern college football success story.
Akheem Mesidor
2025 Stats: 63 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, 12.5 Sacks, 4 FF
Mesidor entered his 6th college football season this year. It was do-or-die time for him. He had spent two years at West Virginia and three previous years at Miami. Mesidor had some decent numbers, including three years with 5-7 sacks. But given age and simply decent production, Mesidor would’ve been a late-round pick until he transformed into one of college football’s best defenders in 2025. Opposite of Rueben Bain Jr, Mesidor frequently showed off his 1-on-1 abilities.
Mesidor’s PFF pass rush grade skyrocketed to 91.7. He totaled 42 QB hurries, and he dominated in the College Football Playoff. The country’s best offensive lines couldn’t handle Mesidor, as he totaled 5 sacks and 18 QB hurries during the playoffs. Mesidor is as big a draft riser as anyone, as he’s now projected in the late part of the first round or early part of the second round.
