Lucas Giolito has finally found a new home. On Wednesday, the San Diego Padres announced they were signing the 31-year-old to a one-year deal worth $3 million, with a mutual option for 2027. There are also incentives in the deal that can earn him an extra two million. These are all based on how he performs in award voting. Giolito will be sent to Single-A Lake Elsinore as sort of an extended spring training to get him back into MLB shape. Once the Padres feel he’s ready, he will join the club.
This is a low-risk, high-reward type of move for the Padres. Over his career, Giolito has been a very solid pitcher. In nine seasons in the majors, he has a 4.30 ERA over 1158 2/3 innings with 1198 strikeouts, 441 walks, a 1.258 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 100. He is someone who can be put into the rotation’s backend and eat an inning for the team. But can he still be as effective, having missed so much time over the past couple of seasons?
Can Lucas Giolito Be a Steal for the Padres?
The last few seasons have been a roller coaster for Giolito. During the 2023 season, he was traded to the Los Angeles Angels as part of the team’s playoff push. But the Angels and Giolito struggled, leading to him being DFA on August 29th. He was signed by the Cleveland Guardians, where his struggles continued. He signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox, but he missed the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John Surgery. He bounced back in 2025, pitching 145 innings to a 3.41 ERA with 121 strikeouts, 56 walks, a 1.290 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 118. But his season was cut short due to a flexor irritation and a bone issue.
He has a four-pitch arsenal featuring a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. His primary pitch is his four-seamer, which he throws 48.4% of the time. While his four-seamer was his most-used, his slider and changeup were his put-away pitches. He threw both at a 20-25% rate, which were his main put-away pitches. Both produced solid whiff% and had exit velocity under 90 mph. His curveball was more of a change-of-pace pitch, thrown only 3.5% of the time.
While his numbers in 2025 indicate a bounce back, there is cause for concern. His underlying metrics suggest luck may have been a major factor in his numbers. He ranked below the 20th percentile in both expected batting average and expected ERA. His K% also dropped from 25.7 to 19.7. To make matters worse, it appears he has lost a couple of mph on his fastball. These all indicate regression and that his stuff is not nearly as effective as it once was.
But the Padres need Giolito to prove the doubters wrong and show that 2025 was not a fluke. The Padres are in desperate need of some depth in their rotation. Bryan Hoeing was transferred to the 60-Day IL due to flexor surgery. They also have Nick Pivetta, Griffin Canning, and Joe Musgrove all on the 15-Day IL. Their pitching depth is already being tested, and if another guy goes down, they may have to turn to an inexperienced minor leaguer. Not something a fighting for a playoff spot wants to do.
Although there is cause for concern with Giolito, this is a move the Padres had to make. They need to find solid depth with big league experience in their rotation. Otherwise, it will cost them games, and we could see them fall out of contention.
