I have been a Zero RB truther for years now, but this might be the season that finally breaks me. With running back talent oozing in the top 2 rounds and a pretty steep drop-off right after, Hero RB is gaining more traction than usual in my draft prep. Let’s take a look at both strategies, the pros and cons of each, and which approach you should take this season.
Zero RB
I have gone Zero RB for going on six seasons now, and the argument is pretty simple. Outside of the top two or three running backs, wide receivers historically score more points than running backs—especially in PPR formats. The depth of top-tier wide receiver talent is also significantly greater than it is at running back, making it easier to load up on elite receivers through the first four rounds. Sure, your roster might be a little top-heavy, but if you can find a couple solid RB2s later in the draft, that can more than make up for it.
It’s much easier to employ a Zero RB strategy if you’re picking somewhere in the middle of rounds—say picks 4-8. From there, you can prioritize value over position and simply let the best wide receivers fall to you.
Let’s say you’re drafting at the 5-slot. The guys you want to be targeting will likely be:
- Round 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb
- Round 2: A.J. Brown, Drake London, Brock Bowers
- Round 3: Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, Chris Olave
- Round 4: Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle
If you come away with one of those players in each round, you’re loading up on pass-catchers with legitimate WR1 upside (with Bowers essentially giving you another WR1-level option at tight end). If all four hit, your weekly scoring potential skyrockets around those anchors, and you won’t necessarily need a true RB1 to build a championship-caliber roster.
- Round 5: D’Andre Swift, Bhayshul Tuten, David Montgomery, Jadarian Price
Now, you want to shift your focus to running back. Swift and Montgomery are essentially locks to deliver RB2 numbers, while Tuten and Price have great upside to potentially flirt with RB1 numbers if everything breaks right for them. (Side note – D’Andre Swift might be one of the best-value picks in the draft right now. He’s never finished outside of the top 24 at his position and looks to be the feature back yet again with Kyle Monangai already banged up.)
- Round 6: Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Rhamondre Stevenson
This is where you have to be okay taking the boring pick. Pollard and Warren will be bottom-of-the-pack RB2s, and Stevenson is a solid RB3 but is one TreVeyon Henderson injury away from having legitimate RB2 upside. The point is, there is reliable volume and touches, and you have an RB to put into your starting lineup.
- Rounds 7-11: R.J. Harvey, Rico Dowdle, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Brooks, Blake Corum, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Kenny Gainwell, Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet
Here, you want to target low-floor, high-ceiling upside plays. Last year, Javonte Williams was drafted in this range and finished as an RB1. The idea is to strike gold on one of these guys, and then you will have three serviceable RBs.
- Rounds 11-15:
Take your QB and your TE (if you don’t have one yet). If you don’t get one of the top 2 QBs or TEs in the first 4 rounds, I typically ignore those positions until after I’ve got my RB depth squared away. QB is especially deep this year, and you can still find solid TEs like Dallas Goedert and Hunter Henry in the 10th and 11th rounds. With your last two or three picks, throw darts at your favorite deep sleepers (Cyrus Allen, Ja’Kobi Lane, Dylan Sampson), or take your defense and kicker depending on your league settings.
Overall, your roster could end up looking something like:
- QB: Kyler Murray
- RB: D’Andre Swift
- RB: Tony Pollard
- WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- WR: A.J. Brown
- FLEX: Chris Olave
- TE: Dallas Goedert
- Bench: WR Zay Flowers, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, RB Jonathan Brooks, RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB Kenny Gainwell, WR Jalen Nailor, WR Cyrus Allen
If just one of those running backs you took through rounds 5-11 delivers fringe RB1 numbers, you’re set. It is a bit of a gamble, but we’re not here to finish second, right? We’re here to win the championship. In my opinion, Zero RB still has the highest payoff of any draft strategy, but it carries significantly more risk this year than it has in recent seasons, with running backs experiencing a bit of a new golden era.
Hero RB
The case for Zero RB has gotten a little murkier over the last couple of seasons. Scoring has dipped, particularly through the passing game, while running backs have started showing up more frequently among the highest-scoring players. Last season, 15 of the top 25 non-QBs in full-PPR scoring were running backs. That’s 60% of the group.
That doesn’t mean wide receivers have suddenly become bad fantasy investments. The elite guys are still capable of carrying your team. The difference is that there are now more running backs at the top of drafts capable of producing at that same level, which makes spending a targeted early pick on the position more appealing.
Hero RB is essentially the middle ground between Zero RB and a traditional RB-heavy approach. You lock down one elite running back early, then use the next several rounds to load up on wide receiver talent. The advantage is that you get a legitimate RB1 anchoring your roster without sacrificing the elite WR upside that makes Zero RB so appealing.
Let’s take a look at how things might shake out, and who you should be targeting:
- Round 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook
- Round 2: A.J. Brown, Drake London, Brock Bowers, Saquon Barkley, Ashton Jeanty
- Round 3: Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith
- Round 4: Ladd McConkey, Garret Wilson, Zay Flowers
Hero RB is easiest to execute if you’re picking near the top of the draft, where you can grab one of the elite backs in Round 1 and then let the WRs fall to you. But you don’t necessarily have to take your Hero RB with your first pick. If you’re picking later, you can take a WR in Round 1 and grab your RB in Round 2. As long as you secure one of the top 10 RBs through the first two rounds, you’ve accomplished the goal.
- Round 5: Davante Adams, D.J. Moore, Bhayshul Tuten, Jadarian Price
- Round 6: Carnell Tate, Mike Evans, Parker Washington, Jaylen Warren, Tony Pollard
For the next couple rounds, grab another wide receiver and make sure to lock in your RB2 by the end of round 6. Ideally, you want to grab an RB2 with higher upside like Bhayshul Tuten or Jadarian Price, but you can still totally settle for a safe-floor option like Tony Pollard if that’s all that’s available.
- Rounds 7-10: J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Brooks, Blake Corum, Dak Prescott, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Stefon Diggs, George Kittle, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Kenny Gainwell, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Bo Nix, De’Zhaun Stribling
Fill out your roster. Cement RB depth by targeting guys like Jonathan Brooks, Blake Corum, or Kenny Gainwell. Find a value WR like Josh Downs, Stefon Diggs, or De’Zhaun Stribling. Take a mid-round QB with Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes still available, and grab a TE from the Kittle, Kelce, or Goedert tier.
- Rounds 11-15:
Your starting roster should be filled out by now. For the next few rounds, continue to round out your RB and WR depth and start throwing darts at your favorite sleepers.
Your final roster could look something like:
- QB: Patrick Mahomes
- RB: James Cook
- RB: Bhayshul Tuten
- WR: A.J. Brown
- WR: Rashee Rice
- FLEX: Ladd McConkey
- TE: Dallas Goedert
- Bench: WR Parker Washington, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Blake Corum, WR De’Zhaun Stribling, RB Woody Marks, WR Ja’Kobi Lane, RB Mike Washington
Ultimately, Hero RB gives you a much more balanced roster that still has deadly championship-caliber merit. The wide receiver talent in Rounds 2-4 is very strong, and the likelihood of one of those guys becoming a WR1 is much higher than that of a Round 5-or-later RB flirting with RB1 numbers in a Zero RB build.
Verdict
So which is the better strategy? I have to say Hero RB gets the nod for me this year, but honestly, it entirely depends on your draft position. If you have an early or late-round pick, I’d definitely employ Hero RB. If you’re stuck in the middle, Zero RB is worth the gamble if you’re up for it.
