Every fantasy football season features at least a few players who make the jump from being drafted outside the elite tier to finishing at the very top of their position. Predicting those breakouts requires looking beyond ADP and identifying players who already possess the workload, efficiency, or offensive environment necessary to reach another level.
These aren’t my picks for the most likely QB1, RB1, WR1, and TE1 in fantasy football. They’re four dark horses who have legitimate paths to getting there. Trevor Lawrence showed overall QB1 production down the stretch last season, Chase Brown already has an elite three-down workload, Rashee Rice produces like a top-five receiver whenever he’s healthy, and Kyle Pitts is coming off the best season of his career. If a few things break their way, each could challenge for the top spot at their position in 2026.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence finally delivered the fantasy breakout managers had been waiting for during his first season with Liam Coen. Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards while accounting for 38 total touchdowns and finishing as the QB4 in fantasy football. He ranked fourth among quarterbacks in both air yards and red-zone passing attempts while adding a career-high 359 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. The most encouraging part was how dramatically his production improved as the season progressed. Lawrence averaged just 16.6 fantasy points, 215 passing yards, and 1.1 passing touchdowns over his first 10 games before exploding for 26.6 points, 265 yards, and 2.6 touchdowns per game over his final seven.
That second-half production is why Lawrence has a legitimate path to finishing as the overall QB1. His passer rating jumped from 79.4 over his first 10 games to 108.6 over the final seven, while his yards per attempt increased from 6.4 to 8.4. Instead of learning another new offense, Lawrence now gets a second season with Coen and a receiving corps featuring Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange. Jacksonville also enters the year with the fourth-easiest projected schedule for fantasy quarterbacks. Lawrence doesn’t need another massive leap after already finishing QB4. If the quarterback we watched dominate down the stretch becomes the version Jacksonville gets for an entire season, he could challenge for QB1 overall.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown’s slow start to last season has overshadowed just how productive he became once Cincinnati fully committed to him. Brown finished 2025 with 1,456 scrimmage yards, 69 receptions, and 11 total touchdowns, giving him consecutive seasons with at least 1,350 yards from scrimmage. From Weeks 6 through 18, he averaged 18.2 touches and 100.1 total yards per game while finishing as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. Brown also ranked fifth in yards after contact per attempt during that stretch and finished the season fifth among running backs in receptions. He’s already proven he can handle significant volume on the ground while providing the receiving production necessary to become an elite fantasy running back.
The biggest thing separating Brown from the top of the position might simply be touchdowns. He scored only six times on the ground last season despite playing all 17 games in one of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses. Samaje Perine also took away a meaningful portion of Cincinnati’s red-zone opportunities late in the year, something that prevented Brown from completely maximizing his workload. Entering a contract year without significant competition for touches, Brown should once again have one of the better three-down roles in football. He’s currently being drafted around RB11, but his production suggests he should be much closer to the top five. If Brown maintains his receiving volume and captures a larger share of Cincinnati’s touchdowns, he has everything necessary to make a run at RB1 overall.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice might carry the most risk of any player on this list, but his production when healthy has already reached an elite level. Across eight games last season, Rice commanded a 26.2% target share while averaging 71.4 receiving yards per game and 2.28 yards per route run. He also finished fourth in fantasy points per route while ranking near the top of the league in first-read opportunities. Kansas City wasn’t simply throwing Rice the football when he happened to get open either. He led all players in both designed target share and red-zone target share, showing that getting the ball into his hands was a major part of the Chiefs’ offensive philosophy.
The question with Rice isn’t whether he can produce at an elite level; it’s whether he can stay on the field long enough to do it for an entire season. He hasn’t played more than eight games in either of the past two years and underwent a knee procedure this offseason, making availability the obvious concern. However, that risk is also why he qualifies as a dark horse rather than one of the favorites to finish WR1. Rice already has an elite target-earning profile, gets high-value opportunities near the goal line, and catches passes from Patrick Mahomes. That’s an extremely difficult combination to find outside the first round of fantasy drafts. If Rice finally gives Kansas City a healthy season, he has the target volume and scoring environment to make a legitimate run at the overall WR1.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
After years of disappointing fantasy managers, Kyle Pitts finally put together the type of season everyone had been waiting for. Pitts set career highs with 118 targets, 88 receptions, and five touchdowns while producing 928 receiving yards and finishing as the TE2 in half-PPR formats. He also remained one of the more dangerous tight ends with the football in his hands, ranking fourth at the position in yards after the catch while finishing third in EPA. Pitts’ Week 15 explosion for 11 receptions, 166 yards, and three touchdowns showed that the massive weekly ceiling still exists, but his consistency throughout the rest of the season was more important for his long-term outlook.
The path from TE2 to TE1 doesn’t require Pitts to suddenly become a completely different player. He scored only five touchdowns last season, with three coming in a single game, leaving plenty of room for his scoring production to increase if his 118-target role remains intact. Atlanta also lacks an established receiving threat behind Drake London, positioning Pitts to once again operate as one of the top two options in the passing game. His early preseason usage has reinforced that possibility, with Tua Tagovailoa targeting Pitts four times across Atlanta’s first two drives in their preseason matchup against Denver. After nearly reaching 1,000 yards with only five touchdowns last year, Pitts already has the volume necessary to challenge for the top spot. If he finally combines that workload with seven or eight scores, his first TE1 overall finish could follow.
Four Dark Horses With Overall No. 1 Upside
None of these four players needs a completely unrealistic breakout to reach the top of their position. That’s what makes them so intriguing.
Lawrence already finished QB4 and played like the best fantasy quarterback in football down the stretch. Brown has produced consecutive 1,350-yard seasons and owns an elite receiving role. Rice already scores fantasy points at an elite rate whenever he’s available, while Pitts is coming off a TE2 finish despite scoring only five touchdowns.
Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Trey McBride might be the safer picks to lead their respective positions. But fantasy football isn’t always won by identifying the safest outcome. If you’re looking for four players being drafted considerably later who still possess legitimate overall No. 1 upside, Lawrence, Brown, Rice, and Pitts are four of my favorite bets for 2026.
