After months of researching this fantasy football season, watching film, digging through advanced metrics, and constantly adjusting my rankings throughout the offseason, it’s finally time to plant my flags for 2026.
These aren’t necessarily predictions that every player below will smash or completely bust. They’re where I believe the fantasy market is wrong. Some players are being drafted several spots too low despite having legitimate league-winning ceilings. Others are being selected near their absolute best-case outcomes. Then there are the players after Pick 100 who I’m targeting because the price makes the downside almost irrelevant.
The full list of players I’m above or below the market on is included below, with deeper breakdowns on some of my strongest takes.
ADP data is current as of September 7 and based on [Fantasy Pros].
Players I Expect to Outperform Their ADP
| Player | Current ADP |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | WR6 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB9 |
| A.J. Brown | WR7 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB12 |
| Chris Olave | WR11 |
| Javonte Williams | RB13 |
| Kyren Williams | RB14 |
| Rashee Rice | WR13 |
| Zay Flowers | WR15 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR19 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR21 |
| David Montgomery | RB22 |
| Tyler Warren | TE4 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB23 |
| Parker Washington | WR28 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB26 |
| Christian Watson | WR29 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE7 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB27 |
| Carnell Tate | WR32 |
| Jonathon Brooks | RB31 |
| Justin Herbert | QB9 |
| Chris Godwin | WR37 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB33 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB10 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB35 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB36 |
| Travis Kelce | TE10 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR40 |
Justin Jefferson — ADP WR6
I’m expecting Justin Jefferson to bounce back after the worst fantasy season of his career. Jefferson still finished with 1,048 receiving yards despite Minnesota’s quarterback situation completely falling apart, but he scored only two touchdowns after reaching double digits the year before. Even during the disappointing season, he commanded a 28.5% target share and 35.1% first-read share, ranking sixth and seventh among qualifying receivers, according to Fantasy Points Data. Jefferson still saw 141 targets despite everything that went wrong around him. The volume didn’t disappear. The efficiency of those opportunities did.
This isn’t really about ranking Jefferson one spot ahead of his ADP. I think the market is dramatically underestimating his chances of re-entering the overall WR1 conversation. Before last season, Jefferson had never finished outside the top 10 wide receivers in fantasy points per game. I’m expecting something closer to normal quarterback and touchdown production this year, and if Minnesota’s passing game stabilizes, Jefferson still has the talent and volume to get back into the Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba tier.
Omarion Hampton — ADP RB9
Omarion Hampton is one of the clearest second-year breakout candidates on my board. His rookie season was interrupted by an ankle injury, but through his first four games he was already averaging 17 touches and 95 total yards per game. Hampton also finished his nine-game rookie season with 32 receptions on only 35 targets, showing the type of receiving ability that can push him beyond being just an early-down running back. According to Fantasy Points Data, Hampton posted a 7.4% explosive-run rate, 19% missed-tackle rate, and 2.54 yards after contact per attempt during that early stretch.
Now Mike McDaniel gets to design the offense around him. McDaniel’s offenses have ranked third, third, and seventh in running back target share over the previous three seasons, giving Hampton an obvious path to more high-value touches. He has first-round draft capital, a 220-pound frame, legitimate receiving ability, and should be the centerpiece of this backfield. I don’t view RB9 as paying for the upside. I think Hampton has a legitimate chance to finish inside the top five.
Kenneth Walker III — ADP RB12
Kenneth Walker might be my favorite example of the difference between fantasy production and actual running back performance last season. He finished only RB28 in fantasy points per game, but the underlying numbers were incredible. According to Fantasy Points Data, Walker ranked second in explosive-run rate and first in missed-tackle rate while also finishing ninth in yards per route run. Seattle simply refused to consistently give him the most valuable opportunities. When Zach Charbonnet was active, Walker received only 34.8% of the backfield’s red-zone carries.
That’s why Kansas City is such a massive upgrade. The Chiefs didn’t give Walker a three-year, $43 million contract with nearly $29 million guaranteed to use him like Seattle did. He produced 1,309 scrimmage yards last season while splitting the workload and now enters an offense led by Patrick Mahomes that should create considerably more scoring opportunities. If Kansas City combines Walker’s efficiency with consistent red-zone and receiving usage, RB12 could end up looking ridiculously cheap.
Rashee Rice — ADP WR13
Rashee Rice has already shown us WR1-level fantasy production. In only eight games last season, he caught 53 passes for 571 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 18.8 PPR points per game. What stands out even more to me is how heavily Kansas City used him in scoring situations. Rice finished seventh among wide receivers in red-zone targets despite missing more than half the season while also commanding a 26.2% target share.
There are legitimate durability concerns after consecutive shortened seasons, and that’s why he isn’t being drafted alongside the elite tier. But WR13 gives me enough of a discount to take that risk. When Rice has been available, Patrick Mahomes has treated him like the focal point of the passing game. A healthy season doesn’t just give him a path to outperforming WR13. I think Rice has legitimate overall WR1 upside.
Ladd McConkey — ADP WR20
I’m going straight back to Ladd McConkey after his sophomore slump. He dropped from 1,149 yards as a rookie to 789 last season and went from WR16 to WR34 in fantasy points per game. But I don’t believe the talent suddenly disappeared. His production was dramatically better when Los Angeles used him in motion, with his yards per route run increasing 93%, first downs per route increasing 150%, and fantasy points per route jumping 75%, according to Fantasy Points Data. McConkey didn’t suddenly become a worse receiver. The Chargers needed to do a better job creating opportunities for him.
That’s why Mike McDaniel arriving in Los Angeles matters so much. McDaniel has built his passing games around movement, leverage, and creating free releases for receivers. Keenan Allen is also gone, opening up additional targets from Justin Herbert. We already watched McConkey produce like a borderline WR1 as a rookie, and now he’s entering an offensive system that fits his skill set significantly better. WR20 is one of my favorite bounce-back prices on the board.
Tyler Warren — ADP TE4
Tyler Warren’s rookie usage was already elite for the position. Warren caught 76 passes for 817 yards on 112 targets, immediately establishing himself as one of Indianapolis’ most important weapons. That type of volume gives him one of the safest profiles at tight end, but I’m even more interested in where the ceiling could go from here.
My bold prediction this offseason has been Warren finishing as the overall TE1. He scored only four receiving touchdowns last season despite seeing 112 targets, leaving an obvious area where his fantasy production could improve without requiring a massive increase in volume. If Indianapolis’ offense takes another step and Warren converts more opportunities near the goal line, he already has the reception and yardage profile to challenge the elite tier.
Parker Washington — ADP WR28
Parker Washington showed us exactly what his ceiling could look like once Jacksonville expanded his role. Over the final four regular-season games, Washington averaged 22.3 PPR points and 113.5 receiving yards while commanding a 28.9% target share. Fantasy Points Data also had him at an absurd 3.78 yards per route run during that stretch. He then carried the breakout into the postseason with seven receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo.
Jacksonville has plenty of mouths to feed with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Travis Hunter, so I’m not expecting Washington to maintain a 29% target share. What interests me is the connection we watched develop with Trevor Lawrence at essentially the same time Jacksonville’s passing game took off. Washington showed that he can be much more than a traditional slot receiver when given opportunities. At WR28, I’m taking the chance that last year’s finish was the beginning of something rather than a four-game fluke.
Rhamondre Stevenson — ADP RB26
The fantasy market seems convinced TreVeyon Henderson is eventually going to take this backfield over. I’m not nearly as confident. Stevenson was extremely good on a per-touch basis last season, outperforming Henderson in explosive-run rate, missed-tackle rate, yards after contact per attempt, yards per route run, and several pass-protection metrics.
Henderson’s biggest rookie performances also came when Stevenson wasn’t playing. When Stevenson was active, Henderson averaged only 11.2 touches and 57.2 total yards per game. New England has continued treating Stevenson and Henderson as a tandem rather than handing the backfield to the younger player, and Henderson is now dealing with an ankle injury entering the season. I’m taking the discount on the player who actually owns the job.
Justin Herbert — ADP QB9
Justin Herbert finished as the QB9 last season despite playing behind one of the most injured offensive lines in football. He still threw for 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns while providing considerably more rushing value than earlier in his career. PFF charted Herbert with 439 scramble yards, giving him another path to fantasy production even when the passing offense wasn’t operating at its best.
Now he trades Greg Roman for Mike McDaniel while getting a healthier offensive line and an offense built around Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, and a deeper group of receiving options. McDaniel creating a more efficient passing environment could unlock a version of Herbert we haven’t seen in several years. QB9 feels much closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Carnell Tate — ADP WR32
Carnell Tate was my WR1 in the 2026 rookie class before Tennessee selected him fourth overall, and I’m not backing off that evaluation now. Tate finished his final Ohio State season with 51 receptions for 875 yards and nine touchdowns while earning an 89.0 PFF receiving grade and averaging 3.02 yards per route run. He also didn’t record a single drop.
The obvious question is whether Tennessee’s passing offense will be good enough immediately. That’s a legitimate concern, but WR32 gives us room to be wrong about how quickly Cam Ward and Brian Daboll get this offense moving. Tate has the talent and draft capital to emerge as Tennessee’s top receiver much sooner than the market expects. If that happens during the first half of the season, WR32 won’t come close to representing his value.
Players I Don’t Expect to Reach Their ADP
| Player | Current ADP |
|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 |
| Drake London | WR8 |
| George Pickens | WR9 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB15 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB17 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB21 |
| DJ Moore | WR22 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB25 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB5 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB6 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE5 |
| Mike Evans | WR30 |
| George Kittle | TE9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB34 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE11 |
Christian McCaffrey — ADP RB3
McCaffrey being on this list doesn’t mean I suddenly think he’s bad. He was the RB1 in fantasy points per game last season and caught 102 passes. That’s exactly what makes fading him uncomfortable. My concern is how much we’re asking a 30-year-old running back to withstand after leading the league with 413 regular-season touches. McCaffrey has now averaged 4.0 yards per carry or fewer in consecutive seasons, while his 69.1 PFF rushing grade ranked 51st among 55 qualifying backs last year.
The receiving workload can completely overcome those issues if he stays healthy. I understand that. But RB3 gives fantasy managers almost no margin for error. You’re drafting McCaffrey assuming the age, mileage, declining rushing efficiency, and injury history don’t materially affect the season. I’d rather take the younger elite profiles around him and let someone else pay for another season near his absolute ceiling.
Drake London — ADP WR8
London is another example of a player I like significantly more in real football than I do at his fantasy price. He averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game last season with 68 receptions, 919 yards, and seven touchdowns in only 12 games. He also commanded one of the best target shares in football.
My concern is how dependent that production was on elite volume. London ranked only 57th in average depth of target, 70th in separation, and 37th in fantasy points per target, according to Fantasy Points Data. Kevin Stefanski now takes over an offense with quarterback uncertainty, and WR8 requires us to assume London maintains elite target volume while becoming more efficient. He could have another excellent NFL season and still fail to return top-eight fantasy value.
George Pickens — ADP WR9
Pickens was incredible last year, finishing as the WR5 in fantasy points per game with 93 receptions, 1,429 yards, and nine touchdowns. The problem isn’t whether he’s capable of doing it. It’s whether I’m willing to pay for him to repeat it.
When CeeDee Lamb was healthy, Pickens averaged roughly 15.5 fantasy points while commanding only a 20.4% target share. That’s still good production, but that target volume looks much more like a WR2 than the workload of a receiver being drafted WR9. Lamb remains the focal point of this offense, meaning Pickens will likely need another extremely efficient season downfield and around the end zone to justify the price. He can finish with 1,200 yards and have a great season while still disappointing fantasy managers who drafted him as a top-10 receiver.
Travis Etienne Jr. — ADP RB17
Etienne finished last season with 1,399 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns, but six of those scores came through the air on only 36 receptions. That was the second-most receiving touchdowns among NFL running backs and is one of the easiest parts of his 2025 production to identify as a regression candidate.
Alvin Kamara’s early-season MCL injury should give Etienne a huge role immediately, so I’m not fading him because I expect a committee in September. I’m fading him because those first few weeks could represent his best workload of the year. Once Kamara returns, Etienne’s passing-down opportunities should decrease, and I’m not convinced his rushing efficiency is good enough to completely offset that loss. I’d rather target running backs whose roles have a chance to grow as the season progresses instead of paying for what could be Etienne’s high-water mark during the first month.
TreVeyon Henderson — ADP RB25
Henderson averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, but the full-season numbers don’t tell the entire story. His biggest fantasy performances came while Rhamondre Stevenson was unavailable. With Stevenson active, Henderson averaged only 11.2 touches and 57.2 total yards per game.
The efficiency comparison also isn’t as favorable to Henderson as people assume. Stevenson finished ahead of him in explosive-run rate, missed-tackle rate, yards after contact per attempt, yards per route run, and pass protection. Henderson has a massive ceiling if Stevenson gets hurt, but that’s different from assuming he simply takes the job. At RB25, you’re paying for a workload transition that hasn’t actually happened.
Sleepers After Pick 100
These are the players where I care less about projecting an exact finish. After Pick 100, I’m looking for players who can become dramatically more valuable than where I drafted them.
| Player | Current ADP |
|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | RB38 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR41 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR42 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB40 |
| De’Zhaun Stribling | WR44 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB13 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE12 |
| Josh Downs | WR46 |
| Rachaad White | RB41 |
| Jared Goff | QB16 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR51 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR52 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB45 |
| Kyler Murray | QB17 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE16 |
| Jonah Coleman | RB49 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB51 |
| Denzel Boston | WR58 |
| Kaelon Black | RB58 |
| Cyrus Allen | WR66 |
| Caleb Douglas | WR70 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE26 |
Wan’Dale Robinson — ADP WR41
Wan’Dale Robinson is one of my favorite ways to buy targets late in drafts. He finished last season as the WR14 in fantasy points per game while commanding a 26.8% target share and 32.9% first-read share. He isn’t going to suddenly turn into an elite downfield receiver, but his game has never been built around winning that way.
He now enters Brian Daboll’s offense in Tennessee alongside rookie Carnell Tate and Calvin Ridley. The target competition is real, but WR41 is pricing Robinson like a bench receiver rather than someone who has already demonstrated a legitimate PPR floor. At this stage of drafts, I’ll take the player with a proven ability to earn targets.
De’Zhaun Stribling — ADP WR44
Stribling might be the highest-upside receiver in this entire sleeper group. San Francisco selected him 33rd overall after he ran a 4.36 forty, giving him a 97th-percentile Speed Score on PlayerProfiler. He also produced 882 receiving yards and six touchdowns at Oklahoma State in 2024 before finishing with 855 yards and six scores at Ole Miss last season.
The opportunity has become just as interesting as the athletic profile. Christian Kirk is already on injured reserve, Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, and Stribling caught 11 passes for 109 yards across his two preseason appearances. Some projections have him beginning primarily in the slot while Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel handle the majority of two-receiver sets, so I’m not pretending an every-down role is guaranteed from Week 1. At WR44, it doesn’t have to be. If Stribling forces his way onto the field early, the combination of second-round draft capital, speed, college production, and Kyle Shanahan’s offense gives him one of the better ceilings available after Pick 100.
Patrick Mahomes — ADP QB13
Mahomes at QB13 is one of the strangest prices on the entire board. Before tearing his ACL in Week 15 last season, he was the QB2 in fantasy points per game while accounting for 27 total touchdowns and adding a career-high 422 rushing yards.
He’s now fully cleared for the season, and Kansas City improved the offense around him by adding Kenneth Walker while bringing back Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce. It’s reasonable to expect less rushing production immediately after knee surgery. Dropping a quarterback with multiple overall-QB1 caliber seasons completely outside the top 12 is where I disagree. At QB13, the cost is low enough that I’m comfortable betting on Mahomes’ passing ceiling returning.
Rachaad White — ADP RB41
Rachaad White isn’t here because I believe he suddenly becomes an elite runner. He’s here because RB41 is an extremely cheap price for a running back who has averaged more than 50 receptions per season during his career and already owns an RB1 fantasy finish.
White’s receiving ability gives him standalone value in Washington even without dominating the backfield. If he secures consistent passing-down work, he’s useful in PPR formats immediately. Any path toward 12-15 touches per game gives him significantly more upside than we’re normally finding this late in drafts.
Greg Dulcich — ADP TE26
Greg Dulcich is basically free, but his situation has become considerably more interesting entering Week 1. Dulcich sits atop Miami’s official depth chart at tight end after emerging as one of Malik Willis’ primary targets throughout the offseason. The athletic profile has never been the concern with Dulcich. Staying healthy long enough to establish a consistent role has been the problem.
TE26 allows me to take that chance without paying for the breakout ahead of time. If Dulcich turns the offseason usage into five or six targets per game, he won’t remain TE26 for long. At a position where late-round picks are frequently replaced on waivers within the first few weeks anyway, I’d rather chase a path to meaningful volume than draft a low-ceiling option simply because the floor feels safer.
Final Thoughts
The biggest mistake I think fantasy managers make is treating ADP like a ranking instead of what it actually is: the average price the market is currently willing to pay.
I’m not claiming Justin Jefferson is guaranteed to finish ahead of WR6 or that Christian McCaffrey suddenly becomes unusable because I’m fading him at RB3. The question is whether the probability of each player’s range of outcomes matches the cost.
That’s why Kenneth Walker can be one of my favorite targets at RB12 while McCaffrey is one of my biggest fades at RB3. It’s why I’m going back to Ladd McConkey after a disappointing year and why I’d rather take the discount on Rhamondre Stevenson than pay for TreVeyon Henderson’s projected takeover.
Once we get beyond Pick 100, the strategy changes again. I’m chasing players who can become dramatically more valuable if one or two things break correctly. De’Zhaun Stribling, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rachaad White, Patrick Mahomes, and Greg Dulcich aren’t all going to hit. They don’t have to.
