Four weeks into the fantasy football season, we’re finally reaching the point where some of these early-season trends deserve to be taken seriously.
Week 4 gave us several major role changes, multiple backfields that look completely different than they did a week ago, and unfortunately another long list of injuries to fantasy-relevant players. Some slow starts are becoming legitimate concerns, while several younger players are starting to earn workloads that could make them weekly fantasy starters moving forward.
Here are my biggest fantasy football takeaways from Week 4.
Seven wide receivers have separated themselves for me
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, Chris Olave and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the seven wide receivers I’m most comfortable betting on for the rest of the season. We can argue about the exact order, but this is the group where I feel best about the combination of target volume, talent, and weekly ceiling. Lamb reinforced that again in Week 4 with a ridiculous 17 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown while his snap rate climbed to a season-high 85.9%. Olave is already up to 27 receptions for 375 yards through three games entering Monday night, while Amon-Ra has turned 31 receptions into 303 yards and five touchdowns through four games.
I’m not simply taking the seven highest-scoring receivers and calling them the best rest-of-season options. I’m looking at the players whose roles give them the best chance of staying near the top over the next three months. Puka immediately returned from his hip injury with nine catches for 125 yards; Lamb remains the centerpiece of Dallas’ passing game, and the target-earning ability of JSN, Chase, Flowers, Olave, and Amon-Ra isn’t something I’m worried about disappearing. Chase’s concussion obviously needs to be monitored, but assuming he’s cleared, these are the seven receivers I’m building the top of my rest-of-season rankings around.
Jaylen Warren has earned Pittsburgh’s backfield
Jaylen Warren got his opportunity to completely control Pittsburgh’s backfield with Rico Dowdle unavailable, and he did everything he could to make this a much more difficult committee to go back to. Warren handled almost the entire backfield in Week 4 rather than Pittsburgh replacing Dowdle with another rotational option. That’s important because Warren had already been separating himself through efficiency before finally getting the opportunity to show what the offense looks like with him functioning as the clear lead back.
I’m obviously not projecting this type of workload once Dowdle returns. What I’m questioning is whether Pittsburgh has any reason to go back to the type of split we saw earlier in the season. Warren gives them more versatility as a receiver without sacrificing the ability to handle early-down work, and he’s done enough with his opportunities to earn the larger side of this backfield. I’m treating him as the Steelers running back I want for the rest of the season and would be buying now before we see exactly how much of this expanded role sticks.
Braelon Allen’s workload was exactly what I wanted to see
Braelon Allen didn’t explode in the box score with Breece Hall unavailable, but the workload was considerably better than the fantasy score. Allen played 30 of the Jets’ 32 offensive snaps, handled all 14 running back carries and caught another two passes. Isaiah Davis played only two snaps, both coming on the same seven-play drive. Allen finished with 59 rushing yards at 4.2 yards per carry and added eight receiving yards, giving him 16 touches despite New York running only 32 offensive plays.
That’s why I’m considerably more interested in the role than the 67 scrimmage yards. Allen accounted for every running back carry and essentially never came off the field. Give that same usage to an offense running a normal 60-plus plays, and we’re potentially looking at 20-plus touches. Hall is expected to miss additional time, and New York showed us it isn’t interested in replacing him with a committee. As long as Allen continues dominating the backfield like this, the production should eventually catch up to the workload.
Emanuel Wilson is the Seattle running back to own right now
Emanuel Wilson finally got his opportunity to lead Seattle’s backfield and turned it into his best game of the season. Wilson handled 21 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown while adding three receptions for 39 yards and another score. That’s 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 24 touches after he had already rushed for 92 yards on 21 carries in Week 2. With Jadarian Price on injured reserve, Wilson operated as Seattle’s early-down back while George Holani handled more of the receiving work.
The important part here is for now. Zach Charbonnet has returned to practice, and Price can eventually come back, so I’m not treating Wilson like he suddenly owns this backfield for the next three months. But fantasy football is about reacting to the role that exists right now, and right now Wilson is getting enough volume to matter. He’s handled 51 carries over his past three games and just showed us he can contribute as a receiver when given the opportunity. Until Seattle actually changes the rotation, Wilson is the back I want.
Omarion Hampton is officially stuck in a three-man committee
This is exactly what Omarion Hampton fantasy managers didn’t want to see. Hampton opened the season with 12 carries, jumped to 23 in Week 2, and received another 15 in Week 3. That number fell all the way to nine against Seattle. He made the most of them with 45 yards and a touchdown while adding two catches for eight yards, but Keaton Mitchell actually led the backfield with 10 carries and turned his 15 total touches into 63 scrimmage yards. Mitchell also narrowly led the Chargers’ running backs in snaps, while Kimani Vidal remained involved in passing situations.
That’s considerably more concerning than Hampton simply having a bad fantasy performance. Vidal is taking more of the passing-down work, while Mitchell has started stealing early-down opportunities from Hampton. That leaves Hampton getting squeezed from both directions despite still being the most talented back in this offense. He has 59 carries for 238 yards through four games, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt, and now the volume is moving in the wrong direction. I’m not giving up on Hampton, but until this rotation changes, I can’t treat him like the locked-in weekly starter I expected entering the season.
Nico Collins and Puka Nacua are back
Week 4 was exactly what I wanted to see from Nico Collins and Puka Nacua coming off their injuries. Collins returned after missing consecutive games with his hamstring injury and immediately went back to leading Houston’s wide receiver room. Houston rotated him slightly more than it normally would, but there was nothing about the usage that suggested they planned to significantly limit their No. 1 receiver. Puka’s return was even more convincing, with nine receptions for 125 yards immediately after returning from the hip injury.
More importantly, both players followed the encouraging workloads with 20-plus-point fantasy performances. That’s the combination I’m looking for. I don’t care nearly as much about a player returning from injury and scoring on four targets as I do about seeing the offense immediately put him back into a featured role. We got both the usage and the production here. Unless either suffers a setback during the week, I’m done applying an injury discount to them.
Drake Maye finally gave us something to build on
Drake Maye desperately needed a game like this. He entered Week 4 with seven turnovers through three games and had given fantasy managers almost nothing to feel good about. Then he went into Buffalo and helped New England pull off a 29-26 win while throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns and adding another 54 yards on the ground. That’s 323 total yards, although the interception and lost fumble show the turnover problem hasn’t completely disappeared yet.
I’m not immediately jumping from benching Maye to treating him like an automatic QB1, but this is the first performance that makes me interested in buying back into the upside. The rushing ability has always given him a path to fantasy production. The problem was that the turnovers were destroying the passing floor. If Week 4 is the beginning of that part stabilizing, Maye has enough dual-threat ability to climb the quarterback rankings quickly. I want to see him stack another good performance on top of this, but this was a major step in the right direction.
Keon Coleman finally took advantage of his opportunity
Keon Coleman finally gave us the type of performance we’ve been waiting for, and the timing couldn’t have been better for his fantasy value with DJ Moore leaving the game because of another shoulder injury. Coleman entered the week with only 101 receiving yards through three games before delivering his best performance of the season in Week 4.
The Moore injury is what makes this more than simply chasing one good box score. Buffalo had been rotating its receivers enough to make consistent weekly volume difficult to project. If Moore misses time, there are suddenly more snaps and targets available, and Coleman has an opportunity to turn one productive game into an actual role change. I’m not automatically treating him as a weekly starter yet, but he’s exactly the type of receiver I want to add before we know how long Moore will be unavailable.
Carnell Tate has entered the weekly flex conversation
Carnell Tate’s breakout wasn’t just a couple of long catches creating a misleading box score. He turned his expanded opportunity into nine receptions for 145 yards, averaging 16.1 yards per reception. He now has 268 receiving yards through four weeks and has seen his production climb from 27 yards in Week 2 to 58 in Week 3 and 145 in Week 4.
The volume is what changes the conversation for me. We already knew Tate had the ability to make plays downfield. What I needed was evidence that the offense was willing to consistently funnel the football in his direction, and we finally got that. I’m not immediately ranking him like a locked-in WR2 after one breakout, but he’s absolutely moved into the weekly flex conversation. If this type of involvement sticks rather than immediately disappearing, Tate is going to be difficult to keep out of fantasy lineups.
Chase Brown hasn’t gotten going on the ground, but the usage remains excellent
Chase Brown still hasn’t delivered the rushing breakout fantasy managers expected, but I’m not selling this role. Week 4 was the perfect example. Brown caught 11 passes and continued getting opportunities across situations even while the rushing production remained underwhelming. Some of that receiving volume was undoubtedly influenced by Cincinnati losing Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, so I’m obviously not projecting double-digit receptions every week.
I also don’t need to. What matters is that Brown continues getting multiple paths to fantasy production while we wait for the rushing efficiency to improve. That’s exactly what protects a running back when the ground game isn’t working. I’m much more interested in buying this type of usage than selling because the rushing box scores have been disappointing. If another manager is frustrated by the slow start, Brown is one of the backs I’d be checking on.
Bhayshul Tuten’s breakout is happening
Bhayshul Tuten’s box score still doesn’t completely show how encouraging Week 4 was. He handled 17 carries for 73 yards and caught both of his targets for another 18, giving him 91 scrimmage yards on 19 touches. He also had two touchdowns erased by penalties and still managed a season-high 59% snap share despite briefly leaving late in the third quarter.
The consistency is becoming difficult to ignore. Tuten has rushed for 66, 65, 73, and 73 yards through four games while averaging at least 4.3 yards per carry every week. He’s also handled at least 13 carries in every game and now has 60 carries for 277 yards on the season, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. The two touchdowns don’t count in the fantasy box score, but the fact that Jacksonville gave him those scoring opportunities absolutely matters. Tuten isn’t an upside stash anymore. The breakout is already happening.
Ashton Jeanty’s usage is fine, but the rushing efficiency is becoming concerning
The Ashton Jeanty conversation needs to be framed correctly because this isn’t a workload problem. Jeanty still handled 15 carries and caught six passes for 68 yards against Kansas City, giving him 126 scrimmage yards on 21 touches. His snap percentage dipped slightly, but he actually played more total snaps than his season average because Las Vegas ran more offensive plays. Dylan Laube received a little more third-down work, but Jeanty remains firmly in control of the backfield.
The concern is what he’s doing with the rushing opportunities. After opening with 102 yards on 23 carries, Jeanty has rushed for 48 yards on 21 carries, 56 on 19, and 58 on 15 over his past three games. That’s 162 yards on 55 carries, or just 2.95 yards per attempt. The receiving role is keeping his fantasy floor alive, and I’m absolutely not selling low on a player who still has this type of workload. But the elite rushing ceiling we expected hasn’t shown up consistently enough through four weeks. I need the efficiency to start catching up to the opportunity.
David Montgomery’s role keeps moving in the wrong direction
David Montgomery managed only 24 yards on 10 carries in Week 4, and the underlying backfield usage isn’t giving me much reason to expect an immediate turnaround. Houston had previously opened games by giving Montgomery the first two drives before beginning its rotation with Woody Marks. This week, Montgomery received the opening series, and Marks entered on the second possession.
That’s a subtle change, but those are exactly the changes I’m looking for before they become obvious in the fantasy box score. Montgomery already isn’t producing enough with his touches, so an earlier rotation only makes the situation more difficult. I’m not saying Marks takes the job next week, but the combination of poor efficiency and a role moving in the wrong direction makes Montgomery someone I’m willing to sell before the market completely catches up.
Javonte Williams just created a perfect sell-high window
Javonte Williams scored three touchdowns against Houston, so anyone looking only at fantasy points is going to see one of the best running back performances of Week 4. Underneath that production, his early-down involvement actually fell to its lowest point of the season, with Tyler Goodson seeing more work than he had during the first three weeks.
I’m not predicting Goodson is about to take over. Williams still dominated the two-minute work, so there are valuable situations Dallas clearly trusts him in. But this is exactly when I’m checking the trade market. His workload showed the first sign of moving backward at the exact moment three touchdowns sent his perceived fantasy value through the roof. If someone is willing to value Williams based on the Week 4 fantasy score instead of the usage underneath it, I’m selling high.
George Pickens is becoming increasingly difficult to trust
George Pickens continues to struggle playing alongside CeeDee Lamb, and Week 4 only made the target hierarchy in Dallas more obvious. Lamb erupted for a career-high 17 receptions, 189 yards, and a touchdown while playing a season-high 85.9% of the offensive snaps. Dallas has rotated both Lamb and Pickens out slightly more frequently this season, with Ryan Flournoy mixing into some heavier personnel packages, but there is no question where this passing game runs when Lamb is on the field.
Pickens will always have enough downfield talent to turn a handful of targets into a big fantasy game. That’s also becoming the problem. We’re increasingly relying on explosive plays because Lamb owns the type of concentrated volume that gives him a much safer weekly floor. I’m not dropping Pickens or pretending the ceiling disappeared, but I’m lowering expectations until Dallas gives us evidence that this passing offense can consistently support him alongside Lamb.
Parker Washington is still a buy-low, but Brian Thomas Jr. matters
Parker Washington gave us almost nothing in Week 4, finishing with one catch for seven yards. I’m not letting one bad box score erase everything we liked about his role, but there was a usage development that needs to be included in the evaluation. Brian Thomas Jr. started seeing more opportunities in personnel groupings where Washington had previously been more secure, creating another potential path for Thomas to increase his playing time.
That’s not enough for me to abandon Washington, especially after his value just took a massive hit from the 1/7 line. It does mean the buy-low isn’t completely risk-free. If Thomas continues earning those snaps, Washington’s weekly floor could start shrinking. I’m still willing to buy Washington at the depressed price because one bad game doesn’t erase the role we’ve seen through the first month, but Thomas is now something we need to monitor.
Washington’s backfield just became a complete mess
Week 4 was supposed to be Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s opportunity to take control with Rachaad White unavailable. It actually started that way, with Croskey-Merritt handling the overwhelming majority of the early backfield work. Then the rotation changed. Austin Ekeler, who had been back with Washington for less than a week, began mixing in heavily and eventually split more of the early-down work with Croskey-Merritt as the game progressed.
That’s a brutal development if you were waiting for the Croskey-Merritt breakout. He had almost the perfect circumstances to force Washington into giving him a feature role and couldn’t do it. Now Ekeler has immediately shown he can take meaningful work, and White still has to return. I’m done projecting an inevitable breakout here. Croskey-Merritt can absolutely have useful fantasy weeks, but this backfield has become too crowded for me to assume a feature role is eventually coming.
Dohnte Meyers just became one of the most important waiver names
Cincinnati’s receiving corps was destroyed by injuries in Week 4. Ja’Marr Chase left with a concussion before Tee Higgins later suffered an adductor injury, creating a massive amount of opportunity behind them. That’s where Dohnte Meyers becomes interesting. The injuries pushed him into a much larger role at the exact time Cincinnati could potentially enter Week 5 without one or both of its top receivers.
I’m not treating Meyers like a rest-of-season breakout because his value is directly connected to the injury report. But waivers aren’t always about finding players with permanent roles. Sometimes it’s about finding the player who could suddenly run nearly every route for an NFL offense next Sunday. If Chase or Higgins misses Week 5, Meyers immediately becomes a legitimate flex consideration. That’s enough for him to be one of my priority short-term additions.
T.J. Hockenson just came back from the dead
T.J. Hockenson entered Week 4 with only nine receptions for 76 yards through three games. He nearly doubled both totals in one afternoon, catching 13 passes for 119 yards against Miami. He now has 22 catches for 195 yards on the season, meaning 59% of his receptions and 61% of his receiving yardage came in Week 4 alone.
The usage change underneath the breakout is why I’m buying it. Josh Oliver’s injury pushed Hockenson from playing 32.1% of Minnesota’s single-tight-end early-down snaps over the first two weeks to 88.1% in Week 4, while his route participation jumped to 79.1%. Justin Jefferson being out undoubtedly contributed to the massive target total, so I’m not expecting another 13 catches next week. But the increase in routes shouldn’t disappear just because Jefferson eventually returns. Hockenson finally has the playing time we needed, and he’s back in my weekly TE1 conversation.
Michael Wilson’s volume is becoming impossible to ignore
Michael Wilson has now drawn 30 targets over the past two weeks. At some point, that stops being something we can brush off as random variance. Jacoby Brissett clearly trusts him, and Arizona’s heavier personnel usage is giving Wilson another advantage because he’s staying on the field in packages where other receivers are coming off.
That’s important because it gives Wilson another path toward maintaining this target volume rather than needing Arizona to live entirely in three-receiver sets. I’m not suddenly ranking Wilson above Marvin Harrison Jr., but 30 targets in two games combined with a role that keeps him on the field across personnel groupings is enough evidence for me to stop treating the production as a fluke. Wilson belongs in fantasy lineups until Brissett stops feeding him.
Sean Tucker is becoming a real problem for Bucky Irving
The first three weeks didn’t give us enough true goal-line situations to know exactly how Tampa Bay wanted to divide those opportunities. Week 4 finally gave us one, and Sean Tucker got the carry. That’s the type of touch I’m paying attention to because touchdown equity can completely change the value of a running back even when the overall snap share doesn’t move dramatically.
I’m not declaring Bucky Irving’s goal-line role gone because of one carry. That would be an overreaction. What I’m doing is recognizing that Tucker now has a path to stealing some of the highest-value touches in this backfield, just like we have seen in the past. Irving can survive that if the receiving production remains strong, but his ceiling gets considerably harder to reach if he isn’t controlling the work near the goal line. If someone still values Bucky as if every valuable touch in Tampa Bay belongs to him, I’m willing to explore selling.
Ollie Gordon II may have taken control of Miami’s backfield
Miami opened Week 4 with a legitimate Ollie Gordon II/Jaylen Wright rotation, with Wright actually receiving more of the early work. Then Gordon ripped off a 53-yard run early in the second half and completely changed the direction of the backfield. Gordon finished with nine carries for 100 yards and a touchdown, averaging 11.1 yards per attempt despite receiving only single-digit carries.
That’s considerably more important to me than simply seeing the 100-yard box score. Miami gave both backs an opportunity and then dramatically shifted toward Gordon once he started producing. One game isn’t enough for me to say Wright is completely finished, but Gordon did exactly what he needed to do to enter next week at the front of this competition. This is one of the backfields where the Week 5 snap count is going to tell us a lot.
Brock Bowers is the TE1 for the rest of the season
The Raiders offense looks legitimate, and that’s exactly what I wanted for Brock Bowers. Bowers caught six passes for 86 yards and a touchdown against Kansas City, giving us another reminder that his ceiling is completely different when this offense is consistently creating scoring opportunities. The concern entering the season was never whether Bowers was talented enough to dominate targets. It was whether the environment around him would allow that volume to consistently turn into elite fantasy production.
Four weeks in, I’m considerably less worried about that environment. Las Vegas just went toe-to-toe with Kansas City in a 30-27 game, and Bowers remains the type of tight end who can produce without relying entirely on touchdowns. That’s what separates him from almost everyone else at the position. If the Raiders continue playing functional offensive football and feeding Bowers like the centerpiece he is, the generational fantasy ceiling is still there. He’s firmly seperated himself from Trey McBride when healthy.
The Chiefs’ injuries just created a massive opportunity for Xavier Worthy
Kansas City’s receiver room was completely flipped upside down in Week 4. Rashee Rice left with a hamstring injury and never returned, while Tyquan Thornton suffered a dislocated ankle that could keep him out for an extended period. Those aren’t minor rotational injuries. That’s a massive number of routes and targets potentially disappearing from the offense at the same time.
Xavier Worthy is the player I’m immediately moving up because he’s already in the offense and doesn’t need to learn anything new. Kansas City will almost certainly need additional receiver help if both injuries linger, but Worthy gets first crack at the available volume. And I’m still planting the same flag: I think Kansas City signs Tyreek Hill during the bye week. That’s my prediction, not something being reported. Regardless of whether that happens, Worthy’s immediate fantasy outlook improved significantly on Sunday.
Week 4 was an absolute disaster for injuries
Unfortunately, the biggest overall takeaway from Sunday might be the number of major fantasy players who couldn’t finish their games. Ja’Marr Chase entered concussion protocol, Tee Higgins suffered an adductor injury, Rashee Rice injured his hamstring, Tyquan Thornton dislocated his ankle, Saquon Barkley left with a hamstring injury, DJ Moore aggravated his shoulder, and Lamar Jackson suffered a left ankle injury late in the first half and did not return.
Every one of those injuries has a fantasy impact beyond the player himself. Dohnte Meyers becomes immediately relevant if Cincinnati is missing Chase or Higgins. Xavier Worthy’s target ceiling changes dramatically if Rice misses time. Keon Coleman gets a cleaner path to snaps and targets if Moore is unavailable. Philadelphia’s backup running backs become priority waiver targets if Barkley’s hamstring keeps him out, and Baltimore’s entire offensive projection changes if Jackson can’t play. I’m not making major rest-of-season changes until we know the severity of each injury, but the Week 5 practice reports are going to be as important as any we’ve had this season.
