Chris Paddack makes his debut for the Reds, and based on what he did for the Marlins, this is a big advantage for the Guardians. Paddack has averaged nearly four runs allowed per start and has given up a lot of hard contact. On the other hand, Joey Cantillo has only given up four runs twice this season. He should be able to shut down the Reds’ offense.
Thunder 1Q -3.5 (-115 @FanDuel)
The Thunder have been a reliable first-quarter bet all year, ranking 3rd in overall 1Q ATS and 4th at home. They’re 7-4 1Q ATS at home in the playoffs and 3-1 in this series, while the Pacers have struggled early on the road with a 4-6 1Q ATS playoff record and the 10th-worst mark in the league during the regular season.
OKC has the league’s best 1Q ATS margin (+4.2), and an even better edge at home (+4.9). When comparing that to Indiana’s 4th worst away 1Q margin (-2.3), this spread should be closer to -5.5 than the -3.5 books are giving. The Thunder will look to come out hot at home after a hard-fought win on the road last week. Take the home team with confidence.Â
Clippers 1H -2.5 (-115 @ Bet365)
In perhaps the most intriguing 1st round series of the NBA playoffs, the Clippers will take on the Nuggets tonight in LA after leaving Denver with the series tied 1-1. While the full game spread of -5.5 makes me a bit nervous, I love the Clippers in the first-half in this spot. The Clippers have a 7-3 1H ATS record in their last 10 games (tied for 2nd best), while the Nuggets are tied for the 4th worst 1H ATS record at 3-6-1. In addition, LA is 22-18 1H ATS at home this season compared to the Nuggets 18-23 1H ATS away record.
The Clippers boast the third-best first-half scoring defense, allowing just 54.0 points per game, while Denver ranks near the bottom of the league, giving up an average of 60.0 first-half points (26th). LA is 2-0 so far this series against the spread in the first half — I don’t expect things to change tonight.
Rockets 1H ML (-115 @ FanDuel)
The Rockets have the 3rd best 1H ATS record in the NBA this season at 46-35-1, compared to the Warriors’ second-worst (36-46). In addition, Houston has the 6th highest 1H scoring differential (+2.6) compared to Golden State’s middling 14th (+0.7). The Rockets are just outside the top 10 in first-half offensive points scored at home (58.0) compared to Golden State’s below-average away total of 54.8. While I expect the Warriors to win this game in regulation, Houston should come out fired up in their first postseason action since 2020 and take care of business in the first half.
Grizzlies/Thunder 1Q over 55.5 (-105 @DraftKings)
The Grizzlies and Thunder rank 3rd and 4th, respectively, in first-quarter overs, each hitting at rates north of 57%. Both teams rank in the top 5 first-quarter offenses, with OKC averaging 31.3 1Q points per game (2nd) and Memphis not far behind at 31.2 (4th). Where things get interesting, though, is looking at Memphis’s first-quarter defense. They are among the worst in the league, ranking 26th overall, surrendering 29.7 points in the opening period. With both teams among the league’s highest in overall pace, expect a high-flying 1Q and take the over with confidence.Â
Pistons 1Q +2.5 (-113 @FanDuel)
While I fully expect the Knicks to win this game, Detroit has been a 1Q covering machine all season. The Pistons finished the regular season with the 7th-best 1Q ATS record at 44-38 and a top 5 1Q ATS record on the road at 25-16. Conversely, the Knicks were the second-worst 1Q ATS team on the season with a dreadful 35-47 ATS record in the opening period. The Pistons average a solid 30.1 first-quarter points on the road, outpacing the Knicks’ 29-point average at home. Detroit has been a scrappy team all year. Expect them to come out hot and surprise the Knicks early at MSG.Â
