NBA 1Q Free Pick

Thunder 1Q -3.5 (-115 @FanDuel)

The Thunder have been a reliable first-quarter bet all year, ranking 3rd in overall 1Q ATS and 4th at home. They’re 7-4 1Q ATS at home in the playoffs and 3-1 in this series, while the Pacers have struggled early on the road with a 4-6 1Q ATS playoff record and the 10th-worst mark in the league during the regular season.

OKC has the league’s best 1Q ATS margin (+4.2), and an even better edge at home (+4.9). When comparing that to Indiana’s 4th worst away 1Q margin (-2.3), this spread should be closer to -5.5 than the -3.5 books are giving. The Thunder will look to come out hot at home after a hard-fought win on the road last week. Take the home team with confidence. 

NBA 1H Free Play

Rockets 1H ML (-115 @ FanDuel)

The Rockets have the 3rd best 1H ATS record in the NBA this season at 46-35-1, compared to the Warriors’ second-worst (36-46). In addition, Houston has the 6th highest 1H scoring differential (+2.6) compared to Golden State’s middling 14th (+0.7). The Rockets are just outside the top 10 in first-half offensive points scored at home (58.0) compared to Golden State’s below-average away total of 54.8. While I expect the Warriors to win this game in regulation, Houston should come out fired up in their first postseason action since 2020 and take care of business in the first half.

NBA 1Q Play of the Day

Grizzlies/Thunder 1Q over 55.5 (-105 @DraftKings)

The Grizzlies and Thunder rank 3rd and 4th, respectively, in first-quarter overs, each hitting at rates north of 57%. Both teams rank in the top 5 first-quarter offenses, with OKC averaging 31.3 1Q points per game (2nd) and Memphis not far behind at 31.2 (4th). Where things get interesting, though, is looking at Memphis’s first-quarter defense. They are among the worst in the league, ranking 26th overall, surrendering 29.7 points in the opening period. With both teams among the league’s highest in overall pace, expect a high-flying 1Q and take the over with confidence. 

NBA 1H Play of the Day

Bucks 1H +3.5 (-110 @Fanduel)

The Pacers have the 27th-ranked 1H ATS record at 35-47, while the Bucks are a top 10 1H ATS team this year at 44-38. Giannis averages the fourth-highest 1H point total in the league and has been on a tear to end the season, averaging 31/11/9 in his last 10 appearances. Indiana has been a modest first-half team all year, ranking 14th and 15th, respectively, in 1H scoring offense and defense, while Milwaukee averages the 8th most 1H ppg at 58.1. Not to mention, Milwaukee has a +1.7 higher first-half scoring differential than Indiana, making them an easy 1H play at 3.5-point underdogs. 

MLB Picks 4/17

Phillies ML
The Giants have taken two of three in this series, but the Phillies are still the better team overall. Cristopher Sanchez (3.12 ERA, 26.0 K%, 9.87 K/9) has been excellent to start the year and gives Philly a clear edge. Jordan Hicks is still adjusting as a starter and is prone to short outings, which could tax the Giants’ bullpen. The Phillies hold a strong platoon advantage and should jump on Hicks early. Despite the heavy juice, the Phillies are the right side to even up the series.

Orioles ML
Tanner Bibee has been sharp against weaker lineups but struggled against real competition, allowing 9 hits and 4 homers to the Angels. The Orioles have a .308 career average against Bibee and have done damage against the Guardians’ bullpen, which has regressed from its 2023 form. Tomoyuki Sugano (3 starts, 14 IP) has looked solid and can hand it off to a Baltimore bullpen that’s allowed just 7 runs in the first 2 games. With both teams evenly matched, the Orioles’ edge on the mound makes them a strong home dog.

NBA 1H Play of the Day

Heat 1H -8.5 (-110 on Bet365)

Miami boasts the best first-half ATS record in the league (49-31), including an impressive 8-2 mark over their last 10 games. New Orleans sits at a mediocre 19th 1H ATS record (37-41-1), and has clearly phoned in its last few games of the season after shutting down Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum. Meanwhile, the Heat need to stay sharp as they’re likely locked into a do-or-die play-in game early next week. The Pels average the 3rd worst 1H scoring differential in the NBA at a lowly (-5.8), while the Heat are in the top 10 at (+1.8). In addition, Miami boasts an elite first-half defense, allowing just 53.9 points compared to the Pelicans’ 5th-worst 59.2. Expect Miami to take advantage of an inferior, unmotivated Pelicans team and cover the chalk.

NBA Free Betting Pick 4/11

Grizzlies/Nuggets 1Q over 59.5 (-102 on FanDuel)

This line could be 65, and I’d probably still take the over. Denver ranks #1 in the NBA in 1Q points per game (31.6), with a staggering 32.2 1Q ppg at home. Memphis is not far behind, averaging the third-highest first-quarter team total with 31. 

Heavy seeding implications are on the line in this Western Conference showdown, as Memphis could still theoretically take the No. 4 seed with wins over Denver and Dallas to close the season. The Grizzlies will likely be lacking defensively out of the gates, coming off a back-to-back on the road, but won’t hold any punches offensively with a seeding battle on the line. Denver will be highly motivated as well, as a win over the Grizzlies coupled with a win against a resting Rockets team on Sunday would grant them the No. 4 seed in the West. 

Neither defense is notably great in the opening quarter, as Memphis ranks 25th in scoring defense, allowing 29.7 OPPG, and Denver ranks 29th, letting up 30.4 OPPG. With both teams ranked 7th and 8th, respectively, in 1Q scoring margins, all signs are pointing towards a high-flying, neck-and-neck opening quarter. 

Three-Leg 3’s Parlay (-170) — Cavaliers vs. Knicks

• Max Strus 1+ 3’s
• Donovan Mitchell 2+ 3’s
• Karl-Anthony Towns 1+ 3’s

Max Strus

The high-volume shooter for the Cleveland Cavaliers is shooting 38% from 3 on the year, which is very consistent with his career 3-point percentage. With the injury to Ty Jerome, who is averaging 4 three-point attempts a game over the last 12 games, there are more 3-point attempts to go around for the Cavs and Strus should be a prime beneficiary. A first-half hit is in play tonight.

Donovan Mitchell

The elite scoring guard for the Cavaliers has been getting lots of shots up as of late. Mitchell is shooting 36% from 3 this season and averaging 24 ppg. Over the last 3 games, Mitchell has put up 26 three-point attempts. He shot 2-9, 3-8, and 4-9 from 3-point range in those games. Tonight he has a primetime matchup against the Knicks on ESPN and the New York native will look to make his mark early in this game. Expect Mitchell to be aggressive from behind the arc tonight.

Karl-Anthony Towns

Mr. Pick and Pop. The New York Knicks big man is shooting 42 percent from 3 this season across 67 games for the Knicks. Towns has hit at least one 3-pointer in his last 18 games. The premier shooting big man has a tough matchup inside the paint going up against one of the best big man tandems in the league in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Look for Towns to pull the bigs out to the arc and make them defend on the perimeter early and often. Towns has the ability to shoot the 3 and put the ball on the floor and blow by his defender. Expect Towns to be aggressive early and often in this prime-time matchup for the Cleveland Cavaliers.