Well, none of my top plays were close to bringing home a nice playday with my Betting Guide last week.
This week, we have another signature event with a cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando.
The course requires accurate play off the tee, strong long iron play, steady play around the greens, and a hot putter.
Russell Henley is the defending champion after holding off Collin Morikawa during a final-day duel last year.
Hopefully, we can get back to some big winning ways after last week’s card fizzled and my DFS lineups fell just short of breaking even.
Let’s get into this week’s Betting Guide for the API!
Betting Guide: Bets to Win
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250 on DraftKings)
Fitzpatrick’s play has him trending in the right direction to pick up a win soon.
He comes into the API ranked in the Top 20 in six categories I used on my spreadsheet, including Top 7 or better in 5 of them. He’s No. 2 in shots gained: Off the tee and greens in regulation, 4th in par 5 scoring, 5th in bogey avoidance, and 7th sg: Tee to green.
He’s been a consistent scorer this season despite not going really low on his rounds, but steady play at Bay Hill can bring home a title.
Adam Scott (+4900 on DraftKings)
If Scott can put together three solid rounds, he may come home with the API trophy.
He finished T4 at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago as he shot 8-under during his second and fourth rounds at the Riviera Country Club. His other two rounds he combined to shoot even-par.
He comes into the week ranking in the Top 35 on the PGA Tour in nine categories I used this week. This includes Top 20 placings in SG: Tee to green, SG: Off the tee, bogey avoidance, and par 5 scoring.
Scott doesn’t have the best history at Bay Hill, but his game is in form to be in contention.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+5700 on DraftKings)
I know I said last week that Hojgaard hasn’t measured up to the top players on Tour this season, but hopefully, he can build off his outstanding fourth round at the Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches.
The young Danish star shot an impressive 7-under during the final round to propel him to a T6 at PGA National.
He has Top 11 marks or better in five categories this week, including SG: Off the tee, SG: Tee to green, SG: Approach, and bogey avoidance.
Top 20 with ties
Austin Smotherman (+300 on DraftKings): Despite struggling in the final grouping of the fourth round of Cognizant, we cannot look past Smotherman’s play this young season. He has an elite approach game needed to play well at Bay Hill.
Joel Dahmen (+310 on DraftKings): The biggest happy-go-lucky player on the PGA Tour is finally putting all of his skills together into one season. Dahmen still has his putting woes, but they are fewer and farther between than years past.
One and Done
Rory McIlroy: His bet to win odds are just too low for me to consider this week, and now may be the best time to use him in One and Done. Yes, he is the defending champion at the Players Championship and the Masters, but some may save him for next week – so take advantage while you can.
Don’t forget to check out my complete betting card and my spreadsheet’s Top 25 on our Discord: https://discord.gg/ubewtTAnzJ
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