I had two of my three Bets to Win make it to the weekend from my Betting Guide last week, but Gary Woodland and Nicolai Hojgaard made it a two-man show until Woodland pulled away on Sunday at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
And this is the final week for anyone who has not qualified for The Masters to enter earn a spot with a victory this weekend.
Brian Harman is the returning champion of this week’s Valero Texas Open at the TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course).
No. 4 Tommy Fleetwood and No. 10 Russell Henley are the only two of the World Top 10 golfers in this week’s field after several withdrawals, including Collin Morikawa who is ranked No. 8.
Let’s get into this week’s Bets to Win and Top 20 plays!
Betting Guide: Bets to Win
Hideki Matsuyama (+2250 on DraftKings)
Matsuyama enters the week in top form with his irons and continues to be one of the PGA Tour’s top players shots gained: Around the green and his scrambling ability.
After four Top 15 finishes to start the season, Matsuyama has struggled with his finishes but played well in his final round at THE PLAYERS Championship, logging a 67.
He missed the cut last year at the Valero, but has finished 30th or better in three other trips to TPC San Antonio.
Russell Henley (+1800 on DraftKings)
Henley has a little better odds than Matsuyama, but Hideki is my first click when it comes to picking a winner this week.
But Henley is no pushover as he comes into the event with Top 20 rankings on Tour in 5 of my statistical categories this week.
He’s in the Top 20 in shots gained: Putting, accuracy off the tee, scrambling, bogey avoidance and par-5 scoring.
Plus, if windy conditions plagued the tournament, Henley scores well in non-birdie fests.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+6200 on DraftKings)
Yellamaraju has been a pleasant surprise this season and I probably should have been betting in the Top 20 markets the past month.
He has 3 Top 20 finishes in the last four tournaments, including a T5 at THE PLAYERS and a T6 last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
But it’s his all-around game that has caught the eye of the betting market. He’s was +9400 last week at the Houston Open and has crept down into a spot that continues to be hard to ignore on the betting card.
Top 20 with ties
Bronson Burgoon (+400 on DraftKings): Burgoon earned his spot in the Valero thanks to his T10 finish at the Houston Open. And he’s putting up great numbers with shoulder health issues finally behind him.
Joel Dahmen (+420 on DraftKings): Dahmen got into the field after Max Greyserman’s withdrawal and his stats this season are way better than his Top 20 number is for this tournament.
One and Done
Hideki Matsuyama: I finally got past the WD hiccups with Min Woo Lee’s Top 5 finish last week and Jacob Bridgeman’s T14 at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago, and Hideki is great play this week (and next) according to my spreadsheet.
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