We are one week away from the final week of the PGA Tour season, and it means there only two weeks left for my Betting Guide starting with the BMW Championship this week.
The first half of the year, I was going on a nice run of picking a winner at least once a month. The second half has been a test on my models, my mind and my bankroll.
Thank goodness my Top 20 picks have kept me afloat, but now I need a big DFS week to build a nice bankroll for the beginning of NFL DFS season.
Well, enough talk, let’s get into this week’s picks for the BMW Championship! Odds are from DraftKings.
Betting Guide: Bets to Win
Si Woo Kim (+2700)
Last week, Si Woo used his elite accuracy for a second-place finish behind Scottie Scheffler at the St. Jude Championship.
This week Kim’s elite all-around game should rely on his great iron play. He heads into the BMW as the best approach player with the three longer buckets I used this week.
With the big greens, accurate approach play should lead to more birdie opportunities for Si Woo.
Now if his putter gets hot, he should be at the top of the leaderboard again this week.
Patrick Cantlay (+2900)
Cantlay is one of those golfers that can quietly get into contention without much fanfare.
He plugs along with his casual, almost slow, play which is a perfect match for the FedEX Cup playoffs on the variety of courses they play.
Strong approach play is crucial at Bellerive Country Club and Cantlay is 10th this week in the field in approach. He may not be as good Si Woo with his irons but it gives him a solid floor, hoping the rest of his game has a big week.
He’s also 10th in 3-putt avoidance, which can become valuable on a course that demands precision and punishes mistakes.
Collin Morikawa (+3700)
Morikawa hasn’t put himself into contention much this season after winning at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am early in the year.
But Bellerive gives Collin a leg up on the field – he can use his elite approach game to create good scoring opportunities.
If the putter is neutral, his elite approach play gives him a realistic path to winning at a number that is too big to ignore.
Plus, Morikawa comes into the week with 6 Top 40 rankings in six of the categories I used this week on my spreadsheet.
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Top 20 with ties
Jake KnappJake Knapp (-110): With a limited field, finding a great number for a Top 20 is hard this week, but I’m leaning into Knapp’s plays from last week. If he can find his putter, he could contend.
Kurt Kitayama (-108): Kitayama is another one of those elite approach players who just needs another part of their game to show up for a good week.
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