Buffalo now turns its attention westward for a challenging matchup against the Denver Broncos, owners of the NFL’s No. 2–ranked defense and the AFC’s top seed. The task is made even more difficult by injuries that have begun to mount for the Bills on both sides of the ball, contrasting sharply with a Denver team that has largely stayed healthy. The Broncos’ first-round bye not only secured home-field advantage but also provided valuable extra time for rest and recovery, allowing them to enter this game close to full strength.
Buffalo, meanwhile, continues to shuffle pieces on offense. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer was recently placed on injured reserve, and Tyrell Shavers joined him after suffering an injury last week. While Curtis Samuel has returned to practice, he remains on IR for now, leaving his availability uncertain. As a result, the Bills’ receiving corps has been thinned considerably, placing added pressure on a small but pivotal group.
Khalil Shakir is expected to serve as the primary target, with newly acquired veteran Brandin Cooks being asked to integrate into the offense and provide experience and reliability quickly. The remaining option is rookie Keon Coleman, a talented but inconsistent presence who has been a healthy scratch multiple times this season. Against an elite Denver defense that thrives on disguising coverages and generating pressure, Buffalo’s depleted receiving room will need to step up in a major way if the Bills hope to keep pace and advance.
Stats to Know
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills are 4th in the league in total yards per game (376.3) and are 4th in points per game (28.3). The Denver Broncos are 10th in yards per game (342.6). The Broncos are also 14th in points per game (23.6)—a decent 34-yard difference and about a 5-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 7th in yards allowed per game (293.1). The Bills rank 12th with 21.5 points allowed per game. Denver, on the other hand, is sitting at 2nd in yards allowed (278.2) and is 3rd in points allowed per game (18.3). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 15 yards more than the Broncos and allows about 3 more points per game.
Let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 329 total yards and about 23 points, while the Broncos’ offense should have around 318 yards and about 22 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a slim 1-point advantage and an 11-yard overall advantage, with the Vegas line being -1.5, favoring Denver. The Broncos are 7-10 covering the spread, while the Bills are 9-9 covering. Betting the Bills at +1.5 is worth it in my opinion. The Bills are banged up, will be without some weapons, but it should be a low-scoring game, and I believe the Bills can win or, at the very least, only lose by a point. It will be that close.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this playoff matchup.
- Tre’Davious White has had quite the comeback since returning to Buffalo this season. According to PFF, in his last 5 games, White is 1st in coverage grade (90.7), while only allowing 3 catches (1TD), a combined 7 INTs + forced incompletions, and a 33.2 passer rating allowed.
- Keon Coleman has had a disappointing 2025 season. In Coleman’s last 5 games, he’s only got 3 receptions for 85 yards. He’s good in contested coverage, but his problem is the lack of separation. With a banged-up WR room, Buffalo heads into Denver with just 3 WRs on the depth chart. (Pending Samuels activation)
- Nik Bonitto has 14 sacks on the season and ended his 2025 campaign strong with 1.5 sacks in his last game, plus a forced fumble. Bonitto will cause havoc for the Bills’ defense.
- Bo Nix has been struggling as of late, only getting 3 total TDs while throwing 2 interceptions in the last 3 games. Nix actually is having a slightly better season than his rookie year, but it remains to be seen whether or not he can hit an elite level at the QB position.
Game Predictions
The Buffalo Bills win 20-16, Josh Allen plays great football, not turning the ball over vs the 2nd-ranked defense. James Cook has a bounce-back week, going for over 100 total yards. Taron Johnson gets a pick. Bo Nix throws for under 220 yards, and Nik Bonitto gets a sack.
Playoff Predictions
A friendly reminder of my playoff predictions, currently 6-0!
A Look Ahead
Check out all of my previous articles alongside all regular season articles available here: 2025 Season Series, and make sure to use code DL10 for 10% off all memberships! Also, tune in on YouTube to view our most recent video, where we discuss the Steelers–Texans Monday night game!
