The Buffalo Bills find themselves in unfamiliar territory heading into the postseason, as some of the league’s most dominant AFC quarterbacks are notably absent. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs missed the playoffs, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are out of the picture, and Joe Burrow’s Bengals failed to reach the playoffs due to both injuries and inconsistency throughout the season. For the first time in years, the AFC field is missing the trio that has repeatedly blocked Buffalo’s path or loomed as major threats in the bracket.
That leaves Bills quarterback Josh Allen staring at what may be the clearest lane to a Super Bowl appearance of his career. Instead of preparing for matchups against former MVPs and Super Bowl champions, Buffalo will face a mix of emerging young quarterbacks and teams with less playoff experience under center. The pressure, however, shifts squarely onto Allen and the Bills: with several major obstacles removed, expectations are higher than ever. Buffalo’s challenge now is to capitalize on this rare opportunity, avoid playing down to its competition, and prove it can finish the job on the biggest stage when the conference no longer runs exclusively through Mahomes, Jackson, or Burrow.
On the other side of things, Jacksonville is riding an impressive eight-game winning streak, playing its best football at exactly the right time of year. The Jaguars also benefit from true home-field advantage — the familiar climate, raucous crowd, and comfort of their own routine all work in their favor. Their offense has settled into a rhythm behind Trevor Lawrence and a versatile group of playmakers, while the defense has grown increasingly opportunistic, forcing turnovers and closing games in the fourth quarter. Combine that momentum with the emotional lift of hosting a playoff game, and Jacksonville has every ingredient needed to challenge Buffalo and potentially find the extra edge required to overcome the Bills.
Stats to Know
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills are 4th in the league in total yards per game (376.3) and are 4th in points per game (28.3). The Jacksonville Jaguars are 11th in yards per game (337.4). The Jaguars are also 6th in points per game (27.9)—a massive 39-yard difference and about a 1-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 7th in yards allowed per game (293.1). The Bills rank 12th with 21.5 points allowed per game. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is sitting at 11th in yards allowed (303.6) and is 8th in points allowed per game (19.8). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 10 yards less than the Jaguars but allows about 2 more points per game.
Let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 339 total yards and about 24 points, while the Jaguars’ offense should have around 315 yards and about 26 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a slim 2-point disadvantage but a 24-yard advantage overall, with the line from Vegas being -1.5, favoring Jacksonville. The Jaguars are impressively 12-5 covering the spread, while the Bills are 8-9 covering. Betting the Bills at +1.5 isn’t worth it despite my belief that they will win; Jacksonville’s record vs the spread, alongside their current 8 game win-streak, makes me stay away from this game betting-wise.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this playoff matchup.
- Brandin Cooks had a career day, for his Bills career, that is in week 17 before sitting out week 18 and resting with the starters. In week 17, Cooks had 4 receptions for 101 yards. This is only the third 100-yard game from a Bill receiver this season; Khalil Shakir in week 12 and Keon Coleman in week 1.
-  Joey Bosa was great throughout the season, but he’s missed two of the last five games (Starters sat week 18) and only has 1 sack since week 9. Bosa needs to become a game wrecker in the playoffs like he was brought in to be.
- Trevor Lawrence has been playing MVP-caliber football; in fact, he’d be an MVP candidate had he not waited until halfway through the year to become this dominant. During the Jaguars’ 8-game win streak, Lawrence has 19 TDs and just 5 interceptions. Buffalo will need to win the turnover battle for a chance to advance.
- Travis Etienne has slowed down the past 3 games, with only 196 yards and one touchdown during the span. He’s been good, just not as dominant as he was earlier in the season. Etienne looks to take advantage of Buffalo’s historically weak run defense.
Game Predictions
Buffalo wins a tightly contested battle in Jacksonville, 28-27. Travis Etienne has 50 rushing and 50 receiving yards. Greg Rousseau generates a sack, and Josh Allen gets a rushing touchdown.
Playoff Predictions
A Look Ahead
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