The 6-2 Buffalo Bills head south to face off against the 2-7 Miami Dolphins for the second time this season. Earlier this season in week 3, the Bills were victorious 31-21, led by reigning MVP Josh Allen, who had 3TDs on the day. The Bills look to sweep the Dolphins in hopes of staying in contention for the AFC East.
Stats to Know
Examining the offenses, the Buffalo Bills are now 1st in the league in total yards per game (385.5) and are 3rd in points per game (29.4). At the same time, the Miami Dolphins are 27th in yards per game (291.4), and are 26th in points per game (20.0)—a whopping 94-yard difference and about a 9-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, how do their defenses stack up in this rivalry matchup? Buffalo’s defense ranks 12th in yards allowed per game (311.3). The Bills rank 9th with 20.9 points allowed per game. Miami, on the other hand, is 24th in the league through 9 weeks in yards allowed (343.7) and 25th in points allowed per game (27.0). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 32 yards less and allows about 6 fewer points per game.
Now, let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 364 total yards and about 28 points, while the Dolphins’ offense should have around 301 yards and about 21 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a 7-point advantage overall, with the line from Vegas being -9.5, favoring Buffalo. The Dolphins are 4-5 covering the spread, while the Bills are 4-4 covering. Betting the Bills at -9.5 is enticing, as the averages above have it around 7 points, but I’m confident in Buffalo beating Miami by double digits, as the Dolphins are much weaker than when we last played in week 3.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into the second matchup between these divisional rivals.
- Maxwell Hairston showed promise in his first NFL game against the Carolina Panthers and followed it up with an electrifying defensive showing against the Kansas City Chiefs, keeping up with speedster Xavier Worthy and a late 4th quarter interception. Hairston looks to continue his strong start.
- Keon Coleman is as ice-cold as a player can be, with no 100-yard games since week 1. In fact, Coleman hasn’t even had a 50-yard game since week 1. For all of the fans, myself included, who were expecting a year 2 breakout, it doesn’t look good. Coleman needs to have a strong second half of the season, or I’d expect him to lose the starting role heading into 2026.
- De’Von Achane is following up his 2024 breakout with yet another elite season. Achane already has 880 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs at the halfway point and continues to look like a top 5 RB for years to come.
- Everyone Else, the Miami Dolphins are an absolute dumpster fire this season. They have fired long-time GM Chris Grier, but kept HC Mike McDaniel for now. Paid Tua so much they let Wilkins and Holland walk in the 24’ free agency cycle, and they lost any defensive identity they had. Miami has some rough years ahead of them before they are ready to compete in the AFC East alongside two teams with franchise QBs and the Jets, who now have 5 1st round picks over the next two drafts.
Game Predictions
I predict the Bills are victorious and advance to 7-2, 35-23. Maxwell Hairston gets another pick, stamping his presence in the league. Lastly, De’Von Achane gets over 125 scrimmage yards and a TD.
A Look Ahead
Buffalo takes on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 11, which should be the toughest matchup for a few weeks, followed by a road game in Houston against a struggling Texans team on Thursday Night Football.
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