It was an uneventful week for my Betting Guide as all three of my picks were nowhere near the top of the PGA Championship leaderboard.
Collin Morikawa had a lackluster week to finish T55, while J.J. Spaun and Jordan Smith both didn’t come close to making the cut.
Well at least, Alex Smalley’s run at the title paid off my Top 20 finish bet on him.
This week, the PGA Tour heads back to TPC Craig Ranch for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, where Scottie Scheffler is set to defend his title.
I’m calling it right now, Scheffler is winning this event with its weak field, but I still need to have a little action on the rest of the field.
Let’s check out top picks for my Betting Guide! All odds are for DraftKings.
Betting Guide: Bets to Win
Si Woo Kim (+1275)
Si Woo made be the best suited to challenge Scottie this week.
He loves playing on at TPC Craig Ranch – he was the runners-up in 2023 and has two Top 15 finishes the last two seasons.
And the newly renovated course may play into Si Woo’s strengths, despite his recent lackluster form in his past two events.
Kim is an elite ball striker as he is ranked 6th on the PGA Tour in shots gained: Approach, and according to reports, the new updates to the course may require a little more accuracy off the tee than in year’s past. Si Woo checks that box as well as he’s 6th on Tour in accuracy.
Ryo Hisatsune (+4700)
Hisatsune is another elite ball striker who has slumped a little the last month, but he seemed to find some headway at the PGA Championship with T35 finish.
Ryo is deftly good with his irons, and I used three shot buckets to prepare my spreadsheet for TPC Craig Ranch.
Hisatsune ranks 31st in shots gained: Off the tee, 37th in Approach, and 12th in Greens in Regulation this season — great numbers for a second-shot golf course where players will need to create constant scoring chances.
And he’s Top 50 on Tour in both par-4 and par-5 scoring.
Blades Brown (+8000)
Brown has already proven he played well in birdie-fest with weak fields.
Earlier this season he played in the final group with Scottie and Si Woo at the American Express and he has two Top 10 finishes in his last three events.
And just like Si Woo and Hisatsune, Brown does his best work with his irons.
He may only rank 67th in approach if he had enough rounds to qualify on the PGA Tour but his strength is in the 175-200, 200-225 and 225-250 yards buckets I used this week in my spreadsheet.
Plus, his lack of course experience at TPC Craig Ranch may be a benefit after last year’s renovations.
Top 20 with ties
Mac Meissner (+168): I usually don’t like betting under +200 on my Top 20 plays, but Meissner is undervalued in the all the betting markets this week with his overall balanced game.
Zecheng Dou (+295): Dou can be so hit and miss as he is either missing the cut or finishing in the Top 25. And I think this is another up week.
One and Done
Brooks Koepka: Koepka has the elite iron play to dominate TPC Craig Ranch but it may matter how much you can stomach his putting (it does seem to be getting better).
Don’t forget check out my complete betting card and my spreadsheet’s Top 25 on our Discord: https://discord.gg/ubewtTAnzJ
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