To recap the quarterfinals, Indiana ran Alabama straight out of the stadium. Trinidad Chambliss stamped himself as the best player in the college football playoff in Ole Miss’s win over Georgia. Oregon shut out Texas Tech relatively easily, and Miami defeated the reigning champions by outgaining Ohio State by over 100 yards on the ground. It’s time to decide who plays in the national championship. Let’s break down the matchups in the upcoming College Football Playoff Semifinal.
#10 Miami vs. #6 Ole Miss
Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
Spread: Miami (-3.5)
Over/Under: 52
ML: Miami (-170), Ole Miss (+146)
The Miami OL
Let’s talk about the obvious- how does Ole Miss handle the Miami offensive line? So far in the playoffs, Miami has run the ball for 175 yards against Texas A&M and 153 yards against Ohio State. Both of those defensive fronts are better than that of Ole Miss, so let’s talk about the matchups.
Ole Miss actually held Georgia RBs to 3 YPC. That’s a far cry from Georgia’s average of 4.5 YPC in their first matchup. So what happened? Well, Georgia’s starting center, Drew Bobo, missed the game, and a redshirt freshman took his place. Without Bobo, Georgia’s rushing numbers fall off a cliff. Georgia’s YPC against Georgia Tech dropped from 6.92 to 3 without Bobo. Georgia averaged 3.4 YPC in the SEC Championship without him.
Miami’s OL consists of multiple NFL talents, including RT Francis Mauigoa, a Top 10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. LT Markel Bell and RG Anez Cooper are considered to be two of the best in the country at their position.
The OL has been Miami’s closer in these playoffs. Against Ohio State, Miami put the game away with a 70-yard TD drive that included 52 rushing yards. Against Texas A&M, Miami took a late lead with an 86-yard TD drive that included 75 rushing yards. The Miami OL wears you down throughout the game. Ole Miss’s depth will be challenged.
Chambliss has blown through the first two rounds of the playoffs, throwing for 644 yards and totaling 5 TDs. His performance against Georgia is one of the great QB performances of the playoff era. With a brand new play-caller, Chambliss was asked to drop back 46 times and defeat one of college football’s best defenses. He did just that, throwing for 362 yards and 2 TDs.
Chambliss is the ultimate dual-threat QB, and in my opinion, the best player in college football at the moment. Chambliss can make any throw on the field, off any platform, from any angle. His size, around 5’11.5 and 210 pounds, makes him surprisingly tough to tackle. His speed is glaring. He can reach the edge of the best linebackers in college football.
For Ole Miss to win this game, Chambliss will need possibly his best game of the season. The Miami defense is fast and violent. They stick in coverage and get after the passer. If Chambliss does not play at an elite level, Ole Miss will likely walk away with a loss.
The Miami Defensive Front
You could tell early on in the season that college football’s best defensive line was in Miami. Rueben Bain Jr and Akheem Mesidor can pressure the QB from any spot on the line. Others, such as Marquise Lightfoot, Justin Scott, and Armondo Blount, force you to leave Bain and Mesidor one-on-one. You cannot double-team any player on this front, or the others will beat you.
The most effective way to neutralize an elite quarterback and passing game is to pressure the quarterback. Chambliss will see plenty of pressure on Thursday night. Ole Miss has faced its fair share of great defenses- LSU, Georgia, and Oklahoma. But the Hurricanes’ defensive front will be Ole Miss’s biggest challenge to date.
Score Prediction
Miami: 27
Ole Miss: 24
#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
Spread: Indiana (-3.5)
Over/Under: 48
ML: Indiana (-175), Oregon (+150)
A Look Back
These two teams faced each other back on October 11th, when Indiana defeated Oregon 30-20. The Hoosiers strolled into Oregon’s home stadium and held QB Dante Moore to 186 passing yards, 5.5 YPA, and 2 INTs. They also sacked Moore six times. It was a pass defense clinic from Indiana. From Oregon’s point of view, the Ducks are probably telling themselves to run the ball. Jordon Davison, Jayden Limar, and Noah Whittington averaged 7.4, 5.7, and 5.4 YPC.
Note, RB Jordon Davison will miss this game. He is Oregon’s go-to RB in short-yardage situations and has 15 rushing touchdowns.
Statistical Comparison
In terms of efficiency numbers, these are two of the most efficient offensive and defensive operations in college football. Dan Lanning and Curt Cignetti have their teams playing with an elite level of precision.
Indiana ranks #4 in points per play, #8 in yards per play, #18 in yards per carry, #4 in yards per pass, #3 in points per play allowed, #11 in yards per play allowed, #9 in yards per carry allowed, and #19 in yards per pass allowed.
Oregon ranks #6 in points per play, #5 in yards per play, #11 in yards per carry, #12 in yards per pass, #7 in points per play allowed, #5 in yards per play allowed, #18 in yards per carry allowed, and #3 in yards per pass allowed.
If Indiana wins this game, keep an eye on the 3rd down conversions from each team. Oregon ranks #28 and #41 in 3rd-down conversion rate and 3rd-down conversion rate allowed. Meanwhile, Indiana ranks #1 and #4 in those categories.
These are two teams that protect the football well. Indiana is college football’s #1 team in turnover margin per game. Oregon ranks #13 in turnover margin per game.
A final number that will factor into this game is kicking percentage. Indiana’s Nico Radicic and Oregon’s Atticus Sappington are two of college football’s best kickers. Radicic is 94% on the season, while Sappington is 83%. Radicic is 4/4 on kicks of 40+ yards, while Sappington is 10/12.
Breaking The Pattern
The following list shows each previous national champion’s ranking in total composite recruiting talent: 3, 14, 2, 2, 2, 5, 6, 1, 9, 1.
Of the last 10 national champions, six ranked in the Top 3 in composite talent. Eight ranked in the Top 6. Nine ranked in the Top 10. The only non-Top 10 national champion of the last decade is Michigan.
What’s Indiana, you ask? Are they in the Top 10? No. How about the Top 25? No. Top 50? Also no. Indiana is currently ranked #72. Yes, you read that correctly.
Oregon has projected first-round picks all over the field. QB Dante Moore, TE Kenyon Sadiq, WR Dakorien Moore, OG Emmanuel Pregnon, DT A’Mauri Washington, DE Matayo Uiagalelei, and CB Brandon Finney Jr are all seemingly locks to be first-round draft picks at some point.
Apparently, Curt Cignetti couldn’t care less about any of this, and at this point, neither do I. I’m rolling with Indiana to win this game, despite all the historical evidence against them.
Score Prediction
Indiana: 30
Oregon: 27
