The Texas Longhorns’ season creeps ever so slowly toward disaster. The Longhorns currently sit at 3-2 with games against #6 Oklahoma, #20 Vanderbilt, #10 Georgia, and #5 Texas A&M remaining on the schedule. Texas entered the season as college football’s #1-ranked team, and the Longhorns have now seen themselves slip from the Top 25 rankings.
Roster Problems?
According to 247 Sports, Texas currently possesses college football’s #4-ranked roster in composite talent. Texas is tied for 1st in 5-star talent with 14 players ranked as 5-star. However, the roster is 12th in total 4-star talent. So, could Texas’s problem lie in its depth? The NFL Draft suggests that the theory may be correct.
In the last two seasons, Texas has seen 23 players selected in the NFL Draft. This number includes 5 first-round draft picks and 5 second-round draft picks. 23 draft picks surpasses even Nick Saban’s best two-year output at Alabama, when he produced 22 draft picks in 2017 and 2018. Even with the Texas roster ranking fourth in composite talent, the NFL Draft results suggest that the team likely needs a recovery year due to the youth and inexperience currently on the roster.
Currently, 40% of the Longhorns’ roster consists of freshmen. The Longhorns’ juniors and seniors account for only 35% of the roster combined. This is one of the youngest rosters in college football. That is not a fault of Texas, but rather a testament to their success in the NFL Draft over the last two seasons.
The Texas OL has been the biggest problem for the Longhorns. The OL faced the task of replacing four starters from last year’s unit. So far this season, Arch Manning has been pressured on 42.8% of his drop-backs. For comparison, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson, Gunner Stockton, and Joey Aguilar have all experienced pressure rates in the 20s. After having three offensive linemen selected in the NFL Draft and another lineman with 56 starts graduating, Texas is struggling to protect the QB.
In its most recent matchup against Florida, Texas allowed 159 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry. Conveniently, Texas is attempting to integrate five IDL transfers after losing its top three contributors from the 2024 IDL rotation. Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton were drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the NFL Draft, while the Los Angeles Rams picked up Bill Norton after the draft.
Texas’s main issue is youth, some would argue. The team has not recovered from losing 23 players to the NFL Draft over the past two years. If youth is the issue, then Texas will likely improve as the season goes on. If the issue lies elsewhere, then Texas will likely see itself finish the season 8-4.
Sarkisian Problems?
Could a team that has reached the college football playoffs in back-to-back seasons really have a coach problem? Well, let’s investigate.
Over the course of Steve Sarkisian’s career, he is now 21-34 against Top 25 opponents. In comparison, Kalen DeBoer is 17-3, Kirby Smart is 38-16, Ryan Day is 25-9, Lincoln Riley is 18-16, and James Franklin is 17-27. Sarkisian is 5-18 against Top 10 opponents in his career and 3-8 against Top 10 opponents at Texas. His record against Top 25 opponents at Texas is below .500, and his record in one-possession games is also below .500.
Sarkisian achieved a record of 34-29 at Washington, a position that Chris Petersen then took over and led to a 55-26 record. After Washington, Sarkisian took over a USC team that went 10-4 in 2013. Sarkisian then went 9-4 in 2014 and 3-2 in 2015 before being fired for off-the-field issues.
Since taking over the Texas job, Sarkisian has rebuilt the roster to an elite level. The Longhorns are now producing NFL players at a high rate and recruiting in the top 5 annually. However, where are the real returns? Despite back-to-back college football playoff appearances, the Longhorns are still disappointing in the biggest games.
Since 2023, Texas has been 3-5 against Top 10 opponents, despite being favored in six of eight games.
Recent history suggests that Texas has a strong roster but lacks a strong head coach. Since 2022, Sarkisian has been 0-6 against Kalen DeBoer, Kirby Smart, and Ryan Day.
Final Verdict
After reading the case from both sides, you can decide Texas’s ultimate problem. Is youth and inexperience the main issue for Texas, or is Steven Sarkisian the problem?
The evidence points to both sides. On the one hand, the departure of talent to the NFL is a tough challenge for a head coach to overcome. On the other hand, an elite coach can overcome such problems. After Georgia saw 25 players drafted in the 2022 and 2023 NFL Drafts, Kirby Smart then led the Georgia Bulldogs to a record of 13-1. After Alabama saw 22 players drafted in the 2017 and 2018 NFL Drafts, Nick Saban then led the Crimson Tide to a record of 14-1 and a national championship appearance.
Now, not all coaches can be as successful as Nick Saban or even Kirby Smart. But if Texas crumbles to a record of 8-4 to finish the 2025 season, there can be zero excuses for Steve Sarkisian.
The Longhorns have a chance to rebound and change the narrative on Saturday, when they will face off against #6 Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout.
