We’ve got two of the biggest matchups of the 2025 college football season kicking off at 7:30 pm EST on Saturday—shame on the TV networks for airing these two games at the same time. Penn State and Oregon will be competing for possibly college football’s top overall seed, while Georgia and Alabama are battling for Southeastern supremacy. Alongside these two games, we also have a top-15 matchup between Ole Miss and LSU, as well as a ranked matchup between Illinois and USC. This is one of college football’s most anticipated weekends.
Georgia vs. Alabama
Location: Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA
Spread: Georgia (-3.5)
Over/Under: 52.5
ML: Georgia (-150), Alabama (+130)
The Running Game
Each of these teams is dealing with some question marks on the offensive line. Alabama’s starting running back, Jam Miller, is playing his first game off a dislocated collarbone, and each team is looking to find more explosiveness on the ground.
For Georgia, the right side of the offensive line has lingering questions heading into Saturday. At RT, Earnest Greene III is listed as doubtful. This means that true freshman Juan Gaston is projected to start at RT, with true freshman Dontrell Glover projected to start at RG.
For Alabama, RT is still a work in progress. Wilkin Formby is the projected starter, while true freshman Michael Carroll is battling for playing time. You can expect to see both players make an appearance. At RG, Geno VanDeMark has been the starter, while Jaeden Roberts has been battling for the job since his concussion. You will most likely see both of these players as well.
The weakness of Alabama’s defense is not a secret. The QB run game has beaten Alabama in multiple games in the last two seasons. In week one, Thomas Castellanos ran 16 times for 78 yards and 1 touchdown. Last year, Vanderbilt showed the country that Alabama could be beaten through options and veers. Later, Jackson Arnold ran for 131 yards against Alabama, while Oklahoma as a team ran for 257. Will Georgia adopt this style of running scheme with Gunner Stockton? The Dawgs’ current OL personnel might not allow them, with two true freshmen projected to start. But the bye week might give Georgia OC Mike Bobo enough time to install some creative options.
Alabama will look to find a boost to its running game with the addition of Jam Miller. In its last game, Georgia allowed 4.7 yards per carry to Tennessee running backs. Alabama RBs are averaging 5.52 yards per carry on 64 carries for the season, though freshman RB AK Dear is averaging 12 yards per carry on seven carries, which heavily affects that number. Dear will likely not be seen in this game. Alabama’s run scheme so far this season has been relatively straightforward, both literally and figuratively. Its lack of creativity is likely affected by both RB personnel and OL personnel. We’ll see how Alabama handles the Georgia front seven in the box.
The Passing Game
The passing attacks played a massive role in the 2024 shootout between these teams. Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe combined for 813 yards and 5 TDs passing. However, the QBs also combined for five turnovers.
Alabama’s passing offense started the season rocky. Ty Simpson’s first start occurred in a monsoon against Florida State, and the young QB second-guessed himself multiple times. Since then, Simpson is 41/46 for 608 yards and 7 TDs. He’s committed zero turnovers as well, despite the rainy environment against FSU. Overall, the Tide’s passing attack has been nothing short of explosive, as Bernard and Williams are averaging 19 yards per catch.
Gunner Stockton’s first season as the Dawgs’ starting quarterback has started swimmingly. Stockton has begun the season completing 70.8% of his passes, while throwing for 721 yards and 4 TDs. Zachariah Branch has been the explosive playmaker on the outside, averaging 16.5 yards per catch. At the same time, Colbie Young has been Stockton’s favored target, leading the team in receptions.
Passing success always comes down to the opponent’s pass rush. Currently, both Alabama and Georgia have disappointed in terms of sack production. Alabama has totaled five sacks, while Georgia has totaled three, according to PFF. Alabama has totaled 27 QB hurries, while Georgia has totaled 28. The difference comes from an efficiency standpoint. According to PFF, Alabama’s pass rush win rate is 17.1%, compared to Georgia’s win rate at 9.5%.
Penn State vs. Oregon
Location: Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA
Spread: Penn State (-3.5)
Over/Under: 52.5
ML: Penn State (-175), Oregon (+150)
The Running Game
Penn State will be hoping to replicate last year’s rushing performance against Oregon. The Nittany Lions posted 297 yards on 8.7 yards per carry in the Big Ten Championship Game. Currently, Penn State’s RB duo is a tale of two stories. Kaytron Allen is averaging 8 yards per carry on 34 carries, while Nicholas Singleton is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 41 carries. Penn State will need a bounce-back game from Singleton to win this game.
Penn State will look to establish a power run game on Saturday. Luckily for them, power is where Oregon struggles. Last season, Boise State, Ohio State, and Penn State all found a high level of success on the ground against the Ducks. Barring significant improvements from Oregon’s defense, we can expect Penn State to enforce its will in the run game. Oregon currently ranks 44th in college football for yards per carry allowed and 50th in rushing yards per game allowed.
Oregon will bring its own elite rushing attack to this game. Despite the lack of impact from preseason All-American Makhi Hughes, Oregon has posted gaudy numbers on the ground. Jayden Limar is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on 32 attempts. Noah Whittington is averaging 11.4 ypc on 14 attempts, and Dierre Hill Jr is averaging 11.8 ypc on 16 attempts. Penn State’s defense will undoubtedly be talented and physical, but its rushing defense has not yet lived up to par. Penn State currently ranks 25th in yards per carry allowed.
This game is difficult to predict, as neither of these two teams has been remotely challenged. In fact, Oregon ranks 119th in strength of schedule, while Penn State ranks 136th.
The Passing Game
Penn State’s passing attack looks subpar for another season. Against the worst schedule in DI FBS, Drew Allar is completing 64.8% of his passes, 7.1 yards per attempt, and 4 TDs through three games. So far, Allar is PFF’s 147th-ranked passer.
Penn State will be facing off against Oregon’s #3-ranked defense in yards per pass attempt allowed. Fortunately for Penn State, Oregon’s competition has tested the defense very little, so there is a chance that Oregon’s pass defense is still vulnerable. Matayo Uiagalelei has produced three sacks for Oregon, with the next closest player totaling 1.5 sacks. If Penn State can provide its offensive tackles with help on Uiagalelei, Allar should be allowed time to throw. Penn State OC Andy Kotelnicki has most likely hidden the vast majority of his playbook in anticipation of this game so that we might see a new Penn State team on Saturday.
Oregon’s QB Dante Moore has started as well as you’d expect from a QB in Oregon’s system. He’s completing 74.7% of his passes, 10.1 yards per attempt, and 11 TDs through four games. He is currently PFF’s 14th-ranked passer.
The passing game between Oregon’s offense and Penn State’s defense is where we could see a clash of titans. Oregon is currently ranked #6 in the nation for passing yards per attempt, while Penn State is ranked #8 in yards per attempt allowed. Last year, Oregon was able to attack through the air with receivers such as Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and Traeshon Holden. Now, Oregon’s leading receiver is 5-star true freshman Dakorien Moore. If Penn State wants to stop the Oregon passing game, its focus will need to be on tackling Oregon’s receivers in space.
Other Games to Monitor
Ole Miss vs. LSU
Two marquee matchups are overshadowing an absolute showdown. The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat for a college football playoff spot and potentially a SEC Championship spot, while the loser must face a brutal schedule and fight to lose only one more game.
Garrett Nussmeier versus Trinidad Chambliss will be a fantastic quarterback duel to watch. The game also includes defensive superstars such as Harold Perkins Jr and Suntarine Perkins.
Your marquee stat for this game is Ole Miss’s #108th-ranked rushing defense in yards per carry allowed. LSU will quickly look to open the passing game for Nussmeier by forcing Ole Miss to load the box.
Illinois vs. USC
I hate to say this in week five, but everything is on the line here for Illinois. Barring a massive upset victory over Ohio State in two weeks, a second loss here will end the college football playoff hopes for a team previously ranked inside the Top 10.
For USC, this game is also classified as a must-win. USC has Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon still left on the schedule. USC cannot afford to face those three teams after already incurring a loss.
After being dismantled by Indiana, Illinois will surely show up embarrassed. USC must be ready for Illinois’ best game. This is a great game to start a college football Saturday at noon EST.
Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is playing for its season in this one. The Irish have already lost two games, and a third loss would eliminate them from college football playoff contention entirely. If they manage to defeat Arkansas, they face only one more ranked team, and they would have a runway to sneak into the playoffs as a low seed.
For Arkansas, the goal is to show up angry after a disappointing loss to Memphis. Arkansas will face two top-15 opponents after Notre Dame, so a win here would set the tone heading into a tough two-game stretch.
Taylen Green has been slinging the ball around for Arkansas, averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt and 298 yards per game. Notre Dame ranks 99th in college football for yards per pass attempt allowed. Look for Arkansas to come out guns blazing in hopes of an upset.
