College football blessed us yet again last Saturday. FSU vs Miami ended in a one-possession game. UCLA pulled off a massive stunner over Penn State. Alabama vs Vanderbilt featured explosive plays, trash talk, and somehow Johnny Manziel. Cincinnati upset Iowa State to jump the Cyclones in the Big 12 standings. Virginia vs Louisville gave us an overtime thriller, and Florida bested Texas in The Swamp. If you’re not tuning in every week, you’re simply missing out on the world’s greatest sport.
As usual, you can expect the Week 7 slate to be filled with fantastic football games. Let’s break down some of college football’s biggest matchups on Saturday.
#14 Missouri vs. #8 Alabama
Location: Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri
Spread: Alabama (-2.5)
Over/Under: 51.5
ML: Alabama (-150), Missouri (+130)
Missouri Run Offense vs. Alabama Run Defense
The run game is where Missouri will try to make its money on Saturday. Ahmad Hardy has dominated opponents so far this season, averaging 7.1 yards per carry and 146 yards per game. Missouri’s RB2, Jamal Roberts, could be RB1 for the majority of college football teams, as he’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry and 70 yards per game. QB Beau Pribula has added 121 yards and 3 TDs on the ground and is a threat to run at all times.
Missouri’s run scheme goes inside and out. The Tigers will challenge Alabama up the middle, outside the tackles, and to the boundary. Missouri’s constant use of motion will test the eyes of Alabama linebackers, making this another game in which Alabama’s linebackers will be x-factors. The Missouri OL is a physical unit, averaging 6’4 314 pounds. They’re an athletic unit as well, capable of running wide zone and other stretch concepts.
Alabama currently ranks 96th in yards per carry allowed and 70th in rushing yards per game allowed. The main issue for Alabama’s defense is explosive runs. Alabama allowed just nine rushing yards to Vanderbilt in the second half, although Vanderbilt achieved explosive runs of 65 and 36 yards during the first half. In Week 5, Alabama managed to hold Georgia to 7 second-half points and 21 total points, although Georgia achieved explosive runs of 29, 43, 43, and 21 yards.
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy has forced 48 missed tackles through five games. If Alabama struggles to tackle Hardy, he will hit multiple explosive runs in this game. Fortunately for Alabama, LB Justin Jefferson seems to be rounding into midseason form. Jefferson totaled 14 combined tackles against Vanderbilt, and his speed will be an essential factor in preventing Missouri from breaking explosive runs off the edge.
Alabama Pass Offense vs. Missouri Pass Defense
On paper, the Missouri pass defense is elite. The Tigers currently rank 11th in yards per attempt allowed and 9th in passing yards per game allowed. They also rank 2nd in opponent completion % allowed. However, these numbers require further examination due to Missouri’s poor strength of schedule.
Against Power 4 competition, Missouri’s pass defense allowed 262.5 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt to Kansas and South Carolina. Jalon Daniels and LaNorris Sellers combined for 4 TDs and 1 INT in these games as well. To limit Ty Simpson’s effectiveness on Saturday, Missouri will be relying on Damon Wilson II and Zion Young to create pressure off the edge. Alabama’s OL has graded highly in pass protection against its two recent ranked opponents, as PFF attributes only one sack to Alabama’s OL in the last two games. Missouri will need Ty Simpson to hold on to the football too long, as he did against Vanderbilt. PFF attributed three sacks to Ty Simpson’s fault.
Alabama’s passing game continues to be arguably college football’s best. Ty Simpson has vaulted into the top three for the Heisman race. Alabama has six players with over 100 yards receiving, and four players with multiple TDs. Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton continue to be a dominant trio downfield. Alabama currently ranks 11th in yards per attempt and 5th in passing yards per game.
Missouri’s secondary is a veteran group. Four of the five defensive backs are seniors or graduates. The lone junior is Marvin Burks Jr, who brings 66 tackles from last season. These DBs will look to bring physicality to the game on Saturday to prevent the Alabama WRs from creating space.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 Indiana
Location: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
Spread: Oregon (-6.5)
Over/Under: 54.5
ML: Oregon (-260), Indiana (+215)
Indiana Run Offense vs. Oregon Run Defense
Indiana has four RBs who can tote the rock. Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black, Khobie Martin, and Lee Beebe Jr are averaging 5.4, 6.3, 8.9, and 7.7 yards per carry. Hemby and Black are the two featured backs of the offense, totaling 695 yards between the two. Indiana could struggle to create instant offense in this game. Neither RB has a carry for more than 40 yards this season. Considering Indiana is playing on the road in a rowdy Autzen Stadium, explosive scores could be paramount for the Hoosiers.
In total, Indiana’s offense ranks 14th in yards per carry and 5th in rushing yards per game. The run game is relentless, averaging 45.8 carries per game. In Indiana’s lone ranked matchup, the Hoosiers rushed for 312 yards and 3 TDs against Illinois. Martin and Black each averaged 8.9 yards per carry during the game. Iowa is the best defense that Indiana has faced, and the Hawkeyes held Indiana to 104 yards rushing. The two RBs who got carries during the game averaged 4.6 yards per carry, a great number against college football’s #5 defense in yards per carry allowed.
The Oregon defense is a strange story so far this season. Looking at total stats from the season, Oregon ranks just 39th in yards per carry allowed and 49th in rushing yards allowed per game. However, in its biggest matchup of the season, Oregon allowed just 3.2 yards per carry on 23 total carries against Penn State running backs. The engaging storyline for the Indiana matchup will be whether Oregon reverts to being an above-average run defense or repeats an elite run defense performance.
Matayo Uiagalelei will be the x-factor for Oregon up front. Uiagalelei totaled 2 TFLs against Penn State, and his presence in the backfield will be a determining factor toward Indiana’s overall comfort level. If Oregon does not hit these running backs in the backfield, you can expect them to gather chunk yardage slowly.
Potential Indiana Scaling Issue?
I know, here we go again, questioning Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers. Someone will want this in the Indiana locker room. Questions concerning Indiana’s ability to win this game are valid. Using last season’s data, it’s fair to question whether Indiana can stay competitive in this game.
In 2024, Indiana ranked 57th in composite talent according to 247 Sports. Now, in 2025, Indiana ranks 72nd. Meanwhile, Oregon currently ranks 5th.
Last season, Indiana found itself down 31-7 against Ohio State in the 4th quarter. In the college football playoff, Indiana found itself down 27-3 against Notre Dame in the 4th quarter.
Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers are looking to create a new name for themselves in 2025. They must travel to Autzen Stadium against one of college football’s best teams.
Other Games to Monitor
#17 Illinois vs. #1 Ohio State
Ohio State is a 14.5-point favorite in this game. Ranked 17th going into this game, Illinois faces complete elimination from the college football playoff with a loss in this game. A loss will also give Illinois its second conference loss, almost crushing the hopes of a Big 10 title game appearance. Can the Illini make a final stand in their home stadium?
Ohio State is simply looking to maintain momentum. Julian Sayin is looking more comfortable as the weeks go on, and the Buckeyes are looking to add another ranked win to the resume.
With games remaining against #11 LSU, #14 Missouri, and at Texas, Texas A&M needs to add more cushion to its SEC and CFP standings. Facing that stretch of games with one loss already on the resume is not a fun idea for the Aggies. Marcel Reed and the explosive Aggie offense are looking to have a big performance against a top-notch Gators’ defense.
As for Florida, the story remains the same. The defense is elite, and if Lagway is in fact fully healthy after the bye week, then Florida is a threat to everyone. Freshman 5-star Dallas Wilson made an instant impact in his first game, totaling 6 receptions, 111 yards, and 2 TDs against a Texas secondary that is fantastic. Florida is looking to go into Kyle Field and make a nationwide statement.
For Texas, it’s do-or-die time. You have two losses already, and a loss here would crush all hopes for college football’s preseason #1 team. The Texas OL will have its hands full with Oklahoma’s front seven. If the Texas run game does not show up and the game is put on Arch Manning’s shoulders, it could be over quickly.
For Oklahoma, it seems as if John Mateer will attempt to play. Mateer’s importance to this offense cannot be overstated. He’s a 300-yard-per-game passer that also represents a major run threat. If Mateer plays in this game, we could be in for an instant classic in the Red River Shootout.
Auburn, can you please show signs of life on offense? Signed, college football fans. Jackson Arnold is running for his life, teams are bracketing Cam Coleman in coverage, and Hugh Freeze will not run the ball enough with a running back who is averaging 6.9 yards per carry. It’s time for Auburn to make a stand in a night game in Jordan-Hare.
For Georgia, can you score 17 points in this game? 17 points should win you this game. With injuries to Monroe Freeling at LT, and true freshmen starting at RG and RT, Gunner Stockton will need to show excellent command and pocket presence in Jordan-Hare. Expect the Bulldogs to give Stockton some opportunities to win the game with his arm against one of the nation’s top run defenses. Coming off a bye week, I expect Hugh Freeze to bring some new tricks for Auburn’s offense. Georgia’s defense will need to have discipline when those tricks occur.
USC has already suffered one conference loss, and it cannot afford another one. The Trojans’ explosive offense gives them a chance in any game. USC is averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 11 yards per pass. In its previous ranked matchup, USC put the game in the hands of Jayden Maiava, letting him throw the ball 43 times. I expect USC to trust in Maiava once again.
For Michigan, the game plan will be simple- hand the ball to Justice Haynes. The game is on the road, so I expect Michigan to shrink this game by running the ball. Michigan’s defense ranks 6th in yards per carry allowed and 19th in yards per pass allowed. We’ve got an even matchup here, and it’s a fight for a top seed in the Big Ten.
