Well, the final day for the DraftKings Main Slate is finally upon us, and it means the last The DFS Must Starts of the season.
Yes, it is a little sad for all of us, but for me, I can concentrate more on my golf spreadsheet as the PGA Tour season is in full swing now.
For this week’s story, I will give my best play at each position and a bit of a breakdown of my thinking on the two-game slate.
Let’s get into the DFS plays!
QB DFS Must Starts
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams ($6,300, 13 percent rostered)
Honestly, I do not mind playing all four QBs this weekend, but Stafford is my first choice of the four.
The Seattle defense was a Top 10 defense this season against QBs in DraftKings’ scoring as they have allowed only 15.5 points a game.
However, Stafford torched the Seahawks secondary for 457 passing yards and 3 TDs in a 38-37 overtime loss in Week 16. He also did this without Davante Adams ($6,000, 43 percent rostered), who was dealing with a hamstring injury.
Plus, the Rams have been using more TE sets allowing Stafford to take advantage of the size and speed of his trio of TEs. I will get into them in the TE section of this story.
New England’s Drake Maye ($6,000, 51 percent rostered) will be the most rostered QB in the 2 games, and Denver’s Jarrett Stidham ($4,500, 16 percent rostered) will be a nice salary saver with his price point.
RB DFS Must Starts
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle ($6,200, 80 percent rostered)
If you are concentrating on single entry tournaments like I do, Walker will approach the 90 percent range in most of those tournaments, but it’s well expected.
Zach Charbonnet has been ruled out with a knee injury he sustained early last week, and Walker went off for 38.5 DK points.
Plus, Walker has had two big games in the Seahawks’ matchup vs. the Rams. He rattled 28.4 and 20.1 points in their two games this season.
While Walker will see the majority of the ownership, LA Rams’ Kyren Williams ($6,500, 38 percent rostered) and New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000, 46 percent rostered) provide fine partners with Walker.
Both should see the majority of their touches in their backfields, but their backups could provide difference makers in big-field tournaments. LA Rams’ Blake Corum ($5,000, 7 percent rostered) and New England’s TreVeyon Henderson ($5,500, 15 percent rostered) both have the ability to score TDs in their limited touches.
Denver’s RJ Harvey ($5,900, 40 percent rostered) received a break on Friday when the team announced J.K. Dobbins was not healthy enough to play on Sunday despite practicing in limited fashion this week.
WR DFS Must Starts
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle ($8,000, 77 percent rostered)
Smith-Njigba will be the only play I will use in all five of my lineups as the Rams defense can be passed on. Los Angeles has given up 34.6 DK points a game to WRs this season.
The third-year WR had a monster season for the Seahawks as he has seen 36.2 percent target share this year. And he averaged 23.6 points a game in the two matchups vs. the Rams this season.
But his counterpart Puka Nacua ($9,000, 61 percent rostered) will a key cog in my lineups as well.
Since Week 14, Puka is averaging 29.9 DK points a game and had a monster 49.5-point game in the Rams last matchup in Seattle.
Now this is where the lineup build will get interesting. My spreadsheet likes Seattle’s Cooper Kupp ($3,800, 26 percent rostered) as the third WR, but there are several other cheap options if you go with Smith-Njigba-Puka build with your first 2 WRs.
Personally, I like Denver’s Pat Bryant ($4,400, 1 percent rostered), who cleared concussion protocol this week. He may have been heading to a big game last week before his concussion as he had 3 catches for 32 yards on the Broncos’ first drive.
One sneaky play could New England’s Mack Hollins ($3,900, 1 percent rostered). In his last six games he played before his abdomen injury, he averaged 7 targets a game and scored 10.3 DK points a game.
TE DFS Must Starts
Terrance Ferguson, LA Rams ($2,700, 3 percent rostered)
This is where I plan to get “different” in my build for most of my lineups, and I’m leaning toward Ferguson for his price point and ownership numbers.
He returned from a hamstring injury last week and outsnapped Tyler Higbee ($3,000, 10 percent rostered), 23-8. I know a lot may use Higbee as the sneaky TE play, but I think they are wrong just by last week’s snap numbers.
And it’s hard to ignore how much the Rams have used the TEs during Adams’ injury and during his return in the playoffs. Stafford targeted his TEs 14 times in the Divisional round and 6 times during the Wild Card round. Colby Parkinson ($3,500, 14 percent rostered) is a solid play along with Ferguson.
New England’s Hunter Henry ($4,800, 38 percent) probably has the best TD equity (35.6 percent red zone targets) of the TEs but has a high price point which limits him in my builds.
DST DFS Must Starts
With a 2-game slate, all four defenses are viable starts, and it will probably come down to which team has a defensive score to be the big difference in the large-field tournaments.
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