Week 6 kicks off with the Seattle Seahawks traveling to Denver to take on the Broncos, and there are some interesting fantasy football decisions to make before Thursday night. Seattle’s defense has been one of the best in football, creating a difficult matchup for Bo Nix and Denver’s struggling offense. On the other side, the Broncos will be without Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga, opening the door for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to deliver another massive performance.
There are also some important matchups to consider beyond the passing game. Denver has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, making Emanuel Wilson an appealing start with Zach Charbonnet ruled out. Meanwhile, Seattle has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and third-fewest to wide receivers, raising concerns about several Denver starters. With injuries, changing workloads, and difficult defensive matchups all factoring into this game, here’s who I’m starting, sitting, and keeping on the fence for Thursday Night Football.
Lineup Locks
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR (SEA)
Strong Starts
Emanuel Wilson, RB (SEA)
Emanuel Wilson handled 22 touches for 72 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against San Francisco, playing 60% of Seattle’s offensive snaps while out-touching George Holani 22-8. He’s accounted for 75% and 73.3% of Seattle’s backfield touches over the last two games, demonstrating a substantial workload advantage. Wilson has also handled all five of Seattle’s documented running back red-zone touches during that stretch, compared with none for Holani. His rushing efficiency remains concerning, however, as he’s averaging just 3.4 yards per carry with a 34.2% rushing success rate, according to Sharp Football Analysis. He’s also been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 53% of his rushing attempts, the fourth-highest rate among qualifying running backs. Wilson also lost a fumble against San Francisco, contributing to Seattle’s four-turnover performance, although one mistake isn’t enough for me to downgrade his workload projection.
Denver presents an appealing matchup for Wilson, allowing 23.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, the seventh-most in the NFL. The Broncos have surrendered 4.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and a league-high 3.92 yards after contact per attempt, despite allowing just 0.59 yards before contact per carry. That suggests Denver’s defensive front has been relatively effective at limiting initial rushing lanes while struggling to finish tackles. More importantly, Zach Charbonnet is officially out for Week 6 and could return as early as Week 7, leaving Wilson positioned to lead Seattle’s backfield again Thursday night. I’m viewing Wilson as a strong RB2 or flex start because of his concentrated workload, receiving opportunities and red-zone involvement rather than expecting exceptional rushing efficiency. His outlook beyond this week will depend partly on Charbonnet’s recovery, but his Week 6 opportunity is firmly established.
Sit ‘Em
Sam Darnold, QB (SEA)
Sam Darnold has struggled considerably over the last two weeks, finishing as the QB18 with 13.3 fantasy points against the Chargers before falling to QB26 with just 8.3 points against San Francisco. His performance under pressure has been particularly concerning, as he’s completed just 39.5% of his passes for 5.3 yards per attempt when pressured, compared with an 80% completion rate and 9.2 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. Sharp Football Analysis also reports that Darnold has lost at least 1.0 expected point on a league-high 25.5% of his dropbacks, highlighting how frequently negative plays have disrupted Seattle’s offense. Darnold took five sacks and threw two interceptions against the 49ers, while Seattle has committed eight turnovers over its last three games. The Seahawks also rank 29th in offensive EPA and have converted just 29.8% of their third downs, the second-worst rate in football.
Denver has surrendered 16.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranking 19th, but its underlying passing-defense metrics are considerably more intimidating. The Broncos have allowed just a 57.6% completion rate, the third-lowest in the NFL, and 6.7 yards per pass attempt while generating pressure on 40.5% of opposing dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate. That pressure creates a particularly difficult matchup for Darnold, whose efficiency has declined dramatically when defenders reach him. Surtain and Hufanga being out certainly weakens Denver’s coverage, giving Darnold more upside than the matchup initially suggests. However, I’m not comfortable relying on a quarterback who has struggled with turnovers, pressure and overall offensive consistency. Darnold remains a QB2 rather than a preferred Week 6 starter.
Bo Nix, QB (DEN)
Bo Nix continued his disappointing start against the Chargers, completing 16 of 27 passes for just 123 yards and a touchdown while averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. He’s now averaged 5.5 yards per attempt or fewer in four of five games, and several underlying passing metrics have declined significantly. Sharp Football Analysis reports that his average depth of target has fallen to a career-low 5.6 yards, compared with his previous career rate of 7.3. His intermediate target rate has dropped to 14.8%, his deep target rate to 7.4%, and his percentage of throws between the numbers to 34.3%, compared with a previous career rate of 44.8%. NFL Next Gen Stats separately reports that Nix has thrown at least 10 yards downfield on only 23.5% of his attempts, the lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks. Even with Sean Payton taking over play-calling responsibilities, Denver’s offense has continued relying heavily on short, conservative passes rather than attacking downfield.
Seattle presents one of the most difficult quarterback matchups in football, allowing just 13.9 fantasy points per game to the position, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. The Seahawks have also surrendered only 6.5 yards per pass attempt and a league-low 8.6 yards per completion, while allowing a first down or touchdown on just 26.8% of opposing passing attempts. Their pass rush has been particularly effective, generating pressure on 44.3% of opposing dropbacks according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the second-highest rate in football. That’s especially concerning for Nix, who has completed just 35.4% of his passes when pressured this season. Seattle also ranks second in defensive EPA, creating another difficult matchup for an offense averaging just 19.4 points per game. I’m keeping Nix on the bench because neither his recent production nor the matchup supports a dependable fantasy ceiling. He’s a low-end QB2 entering Thursday night.
J.K. Dobbins, RB (DEN)
J.K. Dobbins handled a season-high 20 touches for 74 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, including 18 rushing attempts. However, his workload hasn’t translated into particularly efficient production, as he’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry through five games, ranking 24th among 31 qualifying running backs. According to Sharp Football Analysis, his 28.1% rushing success rate ranks ahead of only two players in that group, while his 6.3% explosive-run rate ranks 23rd. Dobbins has also contributed very little in the passing game, catching just five passes for 22 yards all season. Seven of his 20 touches against Los Angeles came in the fourth quarter, accounting for 44 of his 74 scrimmage yards, as Denver emphasized its rushing attack while protecting a late lead.
Seattle has allowed 18.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranking 18th, but its rushing-defense efficiency is considerably stronger than that positional average suggests. The Seahawks have surrendered just 3.6 yards per carry to opposing backfields, the fifth-best mark in the NFL, while allowing only 10.2 rushing fantasy points per game to running backs. That’s particularly concerning for Dobbins because his limited receiving involvement makes him dependent on rushing volume and touchdowns. Denver has also spent very little time playing with a lead this season, and another negative game script could reduce Dobbins’ opportunities as the Broncos become increasingly pass-heavy. I’m sitting Dobbins because his inefficient rushing production, limited receiving role and difficult matchup make him a touchdown-dependent RB3 rather than a dependable weekly starter.
Jaylen Waddle, WR (DEN)
Jaylen Waddle’s disappointing season continued against the Chargers, catching just two of five targets for 19 yards. He’s now accumulated 18 receptions for 204 yards and one touchdown through five games, averaging only 40.8 receiving yards per contest. PFF credits Waddle with 30 targets across 136 routes, producing a 22.1% targets-per-route-run rate and just 1.50 yards per route run. He’s also averaging 9.8 yards of target depth and has been credited with four drops, further highlighting the inconsistency of his receiving production. An overwhelming 70.9% of his targets have traveled fewer than 10 yards downfield, while his intermediate target rate has fallen to a career-low 12.9%. That’s a dramatic decline from the previous two seasons, when 37% and 37.3% of his targets came at intermediate depths. Waddle is also playing approximately 44% of his snaps in the slot, but his usage hasn’t translated into dependable fantasy production.
Seattle has allowed just 19.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the third-fewest in the NFL, and its underlying coverage metrics reinforce the difficult matchup. The Seahawks are allowing only 1.53 fantasy points per target to receivers, the fifth-lowest rate, along with a 57.3% catch rate and just 6.7 yards per target. Waddle’s slot involvement doesn’t create much additional optimism either, as Seattle has surrendered only 4.5 yards per target to slot receivers, the second-lowest mark in football. His ability to generate explosive plays remains appealing, but Denver hasn’t consistently provided the intermediate and downfield opportunities necessary to maximize that skill set. I’m sitting Waddle in standard leagues and treating him as a lower-end WR3 or flex option in deeper formats until his usage and Denver’s passing efficiency improve.
Courtland Sutton, WR (DEN)
Courtland Sutton found the end zone against the Chargers but managed just two receptions for 18 yards on three targets, continuing an extremely disappointing start to the season. Through five games, he’s caught just 11 passes for 104 yards and one touchdown on 25 targets, averaging 2.2 receptions and 20.8 receiving yards per contest. He’s caught three or fewer passes in every game and has yet to reach 50 receiving yards in a single contest. His lack of production has been particularly concerning on intermediate and deep throws, where he and Bo Nix have connected on just two of 13 targets traveling at least 10 yards downfield. That’s a 15.4% completion rate on those opportunities, demonstrating how difficult it has been for Denver to generate meaningful production beyond the short passing game. Even his Week 5 touchdown wasn’t enough to make him a top-36 fantasy receiver, highlighting how limited his weekly floor has become.
Seattle presents another difficult matchup, allowing just 19.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers while ranking among the league’s best defenses against explosive passing plays. The Seahawks have been somewhat more vulnerable against outside receivers, allowing 8.5 yards per target and a 6% touchdown rate, but that doesn’t outweigh Sutton’s declining involvement and poor chemistry with Nix. His ability to score near the goal line provides occasional upside, although relying on touchdowns becomes particularly risky when a receiver isn’t consistently earning targets or generating receiving yardage. I’m keeping Sutton on the bench because his opportunities and production have fallen well below the level required for a dependable fantasy starter. He’s a touchdown-dependent WR4 or WR5 until Denver’s passing attack demonstrates meaningful improvement.
On the Fence
AJ Barner, TE (SEA)
AJ Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards against San Francisco, bringing his season totals to 12 receptions for 122 yards through five games. He’s averaging just 2.4 catches and 24.4 receiving yards per contest, with his 69-yard performance against Washington accounting for more than half of his season-long production. However, his involvement in Seattle’s passing formations has been considerably more encouraging than his receiving totals suggest. The biggest obstacle remains Seattle’s target distribution, as Smith-Njigba commands 35.2% of the team’s targets and 52.4% of its air yards, leaving relatively limited opportunities for complementary receivers and tight ends.
Denver has allowed 12.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends, ranking 12th, making this a more favorable matchup than Barner’s recent production might suggest. The Broncos will also be without Surtain and Hufanga, potentially creating opportunities for Barner against replacement defensive backs and linebackers, particularly if Denver devotes additional coverage toward Smith-Njigba. However, Barner’s involvement in passing formations hasn’t consistently translated into receiving production, and he has exceeded 24 receiving yards in only one of five games. I’m keeping him on the fence because the matchup creates an opportunity for improved production, but his limited target volume makes him difficult to trust as a dependable starter. Barner is a touchdown-dependent TE2 who becomes more appealing in deeper leagues or for fantasy managers dealing with injuries and bye weeks.
