3/11 NBA Player Props

Jordan Poole Under 28.5 Points, Assists, Rebounds (-110)

Poole has been on a hot streak, hitting his over in three straight games due to high volume, but regression is coming. The Wizards are one of the best teams at limiting assists and rebounds to opposing guards, making this a tough spot for Poole to keep up his recent production. Expect a cooling-off night.

James Harden O 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (+102 on FanDuel).

If you are in the mood to roll the dice on a plus money play, I think this is a great option. The Clipper have sneaky been rolling lately and the Pelicans are quite the opposite. I love this matchup for Harden to get the Pelicans defense in some tough pick and roll settings, and Harden has always been a solid rebounder for a guard, making this a solid play.

3/9 NBA Player Props

• Kevin Durant Over 25.5 Points: Durant has been logging heavy minutes, averaging 39.2 mpg in February, and has cleared this line in three straight games. His recent efficiency (52.1% FG over the last five contests) makes the Over a strong play.
• Desmond Bane Under 24.5 Points: New Orleans has been tough on opposing shooting guards, and Bane has surpassed this mark just once in his last 10 road games. Expect another tough scoring night for him.
• Zach LaVine Over 32.5 PRA: With increased ball-handling duties against a Clippers defense that struggles vs. point guards, LaVine is in a prime spot. He has averaged 39.7 PRA in his last seven matchups vs. L.A., hitting this Over five times.

3/6 NBA Free Betting Picks

Coby White Under 25.5 Points + Assists: While White has hit the over in three straight games, inflating this line, his season average sits at just 23 combined points and assists. The Magic present a brutal matchup for guards, ranking as the toughest team in the NBA against Points + Assists + Rebounds (PAR) for the position. This is a good spot to take the under.

Quentin Grimes Under 26.5 PAR: Grimes has stayed under this number in 10 of his last 15 games, and his recent hot streak has led to an inflated line. His season average of 18.1 PAR is well below the posted total. Facing a stingy Celtics defense that excels against guards, this is another strong under spot.

3/5 NBA Player Props

Al Horford u19.5 Points, Assists, Rebounds: 

Horford has been exceeding expectations, clearing this line in five of his last seven games, but his season average sits at just 15.5 PAR. Facing a Trail Blazers team that is average at defending centers, Horford is likely due for some regression.

Jayson Tatum u45.5 Points, Assists, Rebounds: 

Tatum has stayed under this total in 11 of his last 15 games, with an inflated line stemming from his massive 71 PAR performance against Cleveland. He followed that up with just 34 PAR against Denver, and he’s more likely to hover around his season average of 41.5 PAR tonight.

NBA Player Props Winning Picks

Anthony Edwards Under 42.5 Points, Assists, Rebounds

Edwards has been putting up big numbers this season, clearing this line in nine of his last 15 games. However, he’s averaging just 38.2 PAR per game, and this matchup against Philadelphia presents a tough challenge. The 76ers have been one of the best teams at limiting opposing guards in both assists and rebounds. Additionally, Edwards has failed to reach 20 points in two of his last three games, making this a good spot to take the under.

De’Andre Hunter Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds

Hunter has been inconsistent, staying under this number in nine of his last 15 games, but he’s currently on a hot streak. He has cleared this line in three straight outings, including a massive 32-point performance on Sunday. The Bulls provide an ideal matchup for forwards, allowing 23.2 points and 9.7 rebounds per game to the position. Given his recent form and Chicago’s defensive struggles, Hunter should have another strong performance.

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Best NBA Spreads for 3/1

Golden State -7.5

The 76ers are in free fall, having lost nine straight and essentially waving the white flag on the season. With Joel Embiid shut down, along with multiple other injuries, Philadelphia is severely undermanned. Meanwhile, Golden State is surging, winning five straight, all by at least six points. Stephen Curry is heating up, fresh off a 56-point performance, and with the Warriors pushing for a higher playoff seed, expect them to handle a depleted Sixers squad with ease.

Milwaukee Bucks -3

Milwaukee has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA, winning seven of their last ten, including an impressive victory over Denver. The Bucks’ elite defense (5th in defensive rating over the last 10 games) and interior size with Giannis and Brook Lopez give them a major edge over a Mavericks team struggling with injuries in the frontcourt. Dallas has been the worst team in the league in points allowed in the paint over the last 10 games, which should lead to a dominant performance from Giannis. Expect Milwaukee to cover.

2/28 Free NBA Player Props

Jrue Holiday o17.5 Points, Assists, Rebounds:

Holiday is averaging 18.7 points, assists, and rebounds per game this season, and despite not hitting the over in 9 of his last 15 games, he’ll need to step up in a crucial matchup against the Cavaliers. Given the stakes with playoff positioning on the line, Holiday should be involved in all facets of the game and could surpass the 17.5 PAR threshold.

Scottie Barnes o33.5 Points, Assists, Rebounds:

Barnes is averaging 33.9 points, assists, and rebounds per game this season and has a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who allow 38 PAR per game to forwards. Despite not hitting the over in 9 of his last 15 games, Barnes’ consistent production and the Bulls’ defensive struggles make the over a good play here.

NBA Player Prop Free Picks

Kyle Kuzma Over 24.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds

Kuzma has fallen short of this mark in four straight games, leading to a decreasing prop line. However, he has been consistently taking double-digit shots and has shot over 40% in his last six games.

Tonight, he faces a middle-of-the-pack Nuggets defense against forwards, making it a great spot for him to snap out of his slump and hit the over. Given his season-long PAR average near 24, expect a bounce-back performance.

Max Christie Under 22.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds

After hitting his PAR line in 10 straight games, Christie has failed to clear it in his last two. His season average sits at just 14.2 PAR per game, and he has shot below 31% in his last two outings.

With limited minutes and poor shooting, this is a strong spot to take the under on his prop line.

Jimmy Butler Under 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds

While the Warriors have thrived since adding Butler, his individual stats haven’t been spectacular. He has stayed under similar PAR lines in four straight games and has only taken 10+ shots once in that span.

Butler is averaging just 27.5 PAR this season, which is well below his career numbers. Additionally, the Magic are one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing the lowest PAR average to forwards. Given the matchup and his recent numbers, fading Butler is the best play.

Yesterday’s Free Pick Record: 2-0

NBA Player Props FREE Picks

Miles Bridges u34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110):

Bridges’ line is inflated after a 56 PAR explosion against Denver, but he has only surpassed this mark twice in his last six games. His season average sits at 31.5 PAR, well below the line, making the under a strong value play.

Amen Thompson u30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110):

Thompson has exceeded this number in his last two games thanks to unsustainable shooting (over 60% in both). His season average of 25.5 PAR suggests regression is likely, especially in what should be a slower-paced, defensive battle between the Bucks and Rockets. The under presents solid value.

College Basketball Free Pick 2/23

UCLA -6.5

UCLA has been one of the best teams in the country recently, ranking 11th in BartTorvik since mid-January. Their dominant defense and strong frontcourt trio (Bilodeau, Dailey, Mara) make them a tough opponent. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been unreliable on the road, ranking 321st in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric and struggling ATS. With the Bruins covering at a solid rate at home, expect them to continue their strong form heading into March.