Overdrafting running backs in fantasy football can sink your season before it starts. The allure of a big name or a breakout year often inflates ADP (Average Draft Position), but banking on unsustainable production or ignoring red flags like workload, efficiency, or backfield competition is a recipe for disappointment. Below, I break down five running backs you should avoid at their current ADPs for the 2025 season, backed by stats that highlight why their fantasy stock is due for a regression.
James Cook (BUF)
ADP: RB13
James Cook is coming off a career year in 2024, posting 15.7 half-PPR points per game and thriving thanks to a sudden spike in touchdown production. TDs accounted for 43.1% of his fantasy output. But there are serious red flags. Despite the box score success, Cook’s usage actually declined from 2023. His snap share dropped from 55.1% to 49.2%, his opportunity share fell to 58.9%, and he ran fewer routes (27.4% vs. 45.9%). That’s a concerning trend, especially in a backfield trending toward a committee.
Ray Davis outperformed Cook in both missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24 vs. 0.20) and yards after contact (65.2% vs. 50.9%). Ty Johnson, one of the best third-down backs in the NFL last year per PFF (10th-highest receiving grade), continues to eat into passing-down work. And with Josh Allen still vulturing goal-line scores, Cook’s TD-dependent value feels fragile. At RB13, you’re paying for last year’s ceiling and he is a guy I am avoiding at that cost.
David Montgomery (DET)
ADP: RB22
“Safe” isn’t always smart in fantasy football. David Montgomery profiles as a steady grinder, but there’s reason to be wary. With Jahmyr Gibbs breaking out as one of the most electric backs in the league, Montgomery’s share of the pie could keep shrinking. After averaging 16.8 and 15.8 touches per game over the past two seasons, it’s fair to expect a dip in 2025.
Montgomery’s fantasy relevance largely stemmed from touchdowns, 25 over the last two seasons, as Detroit led the NFL in scoring in 2024. But without Ben Johnson, the offensive mind behind that success, there’s regression risk. Even with goal-line dominance (33 inside-the-10 carries), Montgomery ranked just 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact. He’s solid, but RB22 feels rich for a back who may only thrive if Detroit scores at an elite rate again.
Saquon Barkley (PHI)
ADP: RB2
Barkley finished 2024 as the RB1 and totaled 2,283 yards on 378 touches, but history tells us to pump the brakes. No running back has finished as the RB1 in back-to-back seasons since Todd Gurley (2017-18), and Barkley enters his age-28 season with 500+ touches between the regular season and playoffs. That kind of volume carries major wear-and-tear risk.
His tackle-breaking metrics were average at best—28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact among 46 qualifying backs (per Fantasy Points Data). His efficiency was largely propped up by Philly’s league-best offensive line, leading the NFL in yards before contact (3.55). While the O-line should remain elite, Barkley’s declining elusiveness and injury history make him a risky bet at RB2 overall. He’s still a top-12 back, but not one to anchor your first-round draft around.
Joe Mixon (HOU)
ADP: RB20
Mixon survived on sheer volume in 2024, finishing as RB8 while ranking in the top six in snap share, opportunity share, and red zone touches. But the wheels may be falling off. His 2024 efficiency metrics were career-worst across the board: 22nd in explosive run rate, 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. On top of the declining numbers, Mixon suffered a foot injury that has kept him out of training camp so far.
With the Texans adding Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks, Mixon’s stranglehold on the backfield is no longer secure. His declining pass-game production (1.40 PPR points/target vs. 1.63 career) and current foot injury only add to the concerns. At RB20, you’re banking on volume he may not maintain and upside he no longer possesses.
Kyren Williams (LAR)
ADP: RB11
Kyren Williams turned heads in 2024 with 350 touches and a top-10 fantasy finish (RB7). But look beneath the surface, and the red flags start flying. He was one of the league’s least efficient backs, ranking 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. His 4.1 yards per carry masked a serious lack of burst and power.
Williams’ fantasy output was driven by unrivaled volume, including the league’s highest red zone touch count. But that could change fast with the Rams drafting Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter in back-to-back years. His passing game usage was also underwhelming: just a 26% route participation rate and 8% target share. Volume alone won’t save him in 2025, and the inefficiency could send his fantasy stock crashing if the touches dry up even slightly, making his RB11 ADP a risky cost.
