In his first full season in Major League Baseball, Chase Burns has been very effective. He has established himself as a top-of-the-rotation player for the Cincinnati Reds and is a dark horse for the NL Cy Young Award. While things were already good for Burns, it just got a lot better as the Reds decided to pay him. On Thursday, July 16th, it was announced that Burns had agreed to a seven-year extension worth $105 million.
Young players getting big extensions like this is nothing new. Several rookies and top prospects inked long-term extensions before having a full year of MLB experience. But what makes Burns different is that he is the only pitcher to receive this type of treatment. With all of the injury risk that comes with a pitcher, many teams have been hesitant to invest in a pitcher long-term. But can Burns buck the trend and be worth the contract?
Can Chase Burns Be a Franchise Cornerstone of the Reds?
As mentioned before, Burns has been lights out this season. In 18 starts, he has an ERA of 2.54 over 102 2/3 innings, with 118 strikeouts, 37 walks, a 1.11 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 173. A large reason for his success this season has been his ability to get batters to swing and miss. His Strikeout Percentage ranks in the 87th percentile. He also has a Whiff Percentage in the 89th percentile and a Chase Percentage in the 84th percentile. This has led to him averaging nearly 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Burns is a pitcher who relies heavily on his velocity to get batters out. His main pitch is his four-seam fastball, which he throws 57.1% of the time. This pitch averages just under 98 mph and produces a called strike or whiff 25.4% of the time. His putaway pitch is his slider, which sits around 91 mph. This pitch has produced a 51.2 Whiff% and a 36.9 CSW%. He has proven the thought wrong that a two-pitch pitcher can’t be a successful starter. Sure, he has a changeup, but he threw it only 5.7% of the time, and mainly against lefties.
There are two main red flags that come with Burns. The first, of course, is him being a two-pitch pitcher. Sure, that has worked this season, but can he keep it up over multiple years? If batters adjust, Burns will be relying solely on velocity to get batters out. There is also the worry that he will hurt his elbow. Anytime you have a flamethrower-type pitcher, the concerns of him tearing his UCL are high. It has become the expectation in today’s game.
While these are valid concerns, the Reds were smart to make this deal. Sure, Burns could take a step back over the next few years, but also could take another step forward. Maybe he fleshes that changeup out or starts to throw his curveball more. He could easily become a top five pitcher in baseball. At $15 million dollars a year, that is a steal. This allows the Reds to invest that money into other aspects of the team. They easily could build one of the best rosters in baseball anchored by Burns.
Although the risks are high for Burns, it is a gamble the Reds had to make. They could have one of the best pitchers in baseball for a fraction of his actual value.
