Here we are, at the end of another dramatic and fireworks-filled NHL postseason tournament with only two teams left. This year’s Stanley Cup Finals matchup features a potential best-of-seven game series between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes. I labeled the matchup unusual due to the path Vegas took and Carolina’s recent playoff struggles. I will first recap my round two bets (shame on me as I did not have any for round three), break down the path traveled by these two to get here, and pinpoint the best angles for this final battle on the pond.
Stanley Cup Finals: Round 2 bets recap
The first bet I had for round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs was the series game spread between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Carolina Hurricanes, which was the Flyers +1.5 (DraftKings +125). As I mentioned before, I almost immediately regretted this bet after the start of Game 1.
Carolina was pretty dominant in Game 1 (3-0) and Game 3 (4-1). They were able to win Games 2 and 4 each by a score of 3-2. Carolina’s suffocating, physical defense was certainly too much for a once-struggling Flyer offense that had been ignited by Porter Martone, who made his NHL debut on March 29th. I was under the impression that a young, scrappy Philly would be able to push Carolina to its limits, but in fact, they were unable to prevail and were swept in four games.
The next series I had bets in was the one between the Anaheim Ducks and the Vegas Golden Knights. This series saw a back-and-forth battle in the first four games with a split of two games apiece, and each team won one game at home and one game on the road. After that, VGK was able to win Game 5 by a score of 3-2 and Game 6 by a score of 5-1 to win the series at 4 games to 2. My bets for the series were the Anaheim series spread +1.5 (Caesars -125) and the total number of games at 6 or 7 (DraftKings +210 and +220).
The last series I targeted for bets in was the one between the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres. This series ended up in a 7-game battle with a ton of scoring. My bets in this series was the total number of games at 6 or 7 (Hard Rock Bet +210 and +210).
I finished this round with a record of 2-4 (-1.02 units), and combined with the round 1 results, I am still up 1.08 units. I also threw out an exacta for the Stanley Cup Final of the Carolina Hurricanes versus the Colorado Avalanche, which obviously neither of those bets is going to come through.
Stanley Cup Finals: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Carolina Hurricanes
These two teams found each other going head-to-head twice in the regular season. Vegas won both matchups, the first being on October 20th at home by a score of 4-1, and then on the road on October 28th by a score of 6-3. Interestingly enough, I was under the impression that perhaps Brandon Bussi started at least one, if not both, of these games for Carolina since Frederik Andersen spent some of this regular season injured. However, Andersen was the goalie in both of these games and allowed a total of 10 goals.
On the other hand, Vegas had Akira Schmid in between the pipes for most of both contests, as this was prior to Carter Hart joining the team. Carter Hart made his VGK debut on December 2nd and has since been impressive despite his two-season absence from the NHL. He went 11-3-3 with a GAA of 2.71 and SV% of 89.1.
On paper, both goalies are pretty comparable and have both had incredible postseasons. Andersen has posted a record of 12-1 with a GAA of 1.41 and SV% of .931, and Hart has a record of 12-4 with a GAA of 2.22 and SV% of .939. Also, both teams have a ton of depth in terms of competitive, aggressive lines and so many options for scorers. Carolina’s line of Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven, and Taylor Hall has scored 19 of the team’s 42 goals. For VGK, their top two lines have done the majority of the scoring.
The Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel, and Pavel Dorofeyev line has combined for 17 goals, and the Brett Howden, William Karlsson, and Mitch Marner line has combined for 18 goals. By breaking it down that way, I almost certainly see VGK having an advantage over Carolina, or should at least be closer in odds to hoist the cup.
Stanley Cup Finals: The bets to be made…
To end this year’s NHL playoff tournament on a positive note and with a bang, this is where you need to pay attention. I believe the Carolina Hurricanes are favored by too much (-155 at DraftKings) over the Vegas Golden Knights (+130 at DraftKings) to win the Stanley Cup Finals, and therefore I like VGK to win it all. I only shopped DraftKings for odds this round, so make sure you dig deep for the best odds at whatever sportsbook may have them. I also like the series to go over 5.5 games (-185 at DraftKings) or the exact amount of games at +210 or 7 games at +210 as well.
To top it off, I looked at the odds for the Conn Smythe Trophy winner, and to be honest I don’t mind taking any of the following longshots:
- Logan Stankoven +850
- Carter Hart +1200
- Pavel Dorofeyev +5000
- Brett Howden +10000
Of course, at the top of the list are Mitch Marner at +165 and Frederik Andersen at +220. Marner to win the trophy is the more feel-good story, so he would be my pick there. Nevertheless, place your bets, kick your feet up, and enjoy some incredible hockey to come from the Stanley Cup Finals starting Tuesday, June 2nd.
