Ever since the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger after the 2021 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been in the midst of a clunky search for their franchise quarterback. After failed attempts at free agency, trade, and the draft, the front office realized that they must get creative to find their next great signal caller.
All signs point to the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh. The upcoming quarterback class is already widely regarded as one of the strongest in recent years, presumably causing the Steelers to play QB carousel again for the 2025 season while they wait to land their franchise guy in 2026.
Quarterbacks dominate the top selections of the NFL draft. So, how does a team that does not suffer losing seasons get to the top of the draft? Tanking is out of the question for the Steelers; it simply is not in their DNA. Barring a catastrophic season, they will need to execute a blockbuster trade to move into quarterback territory. Here, I take a deep dive into what that looks like and what it will take to get a trade done.
What Went Wrong
Roethlisberger’s retirement came at an inopportune time as the upcoming draft class was regarded as one of the weakest for quarterbacks in recent memory. Nonetheless, the Steelers selected Kenny Pickett 20th overall in the 2022 NFL draft. He was the first quarterback chosen, making it the first time since 2000 that no quarterback was selected in the top half of the draft. After just two seasons in Pittsburgh, Pickett was traded and is now on his third team in as many years.
Free agents Mitchell Trubisky and Russell Wilson were brought in along the way, but had short stays. Justin Fields was acquired via trade and managed a 4-2 record as a starter before being replaced by Wilson. The Steelers showed interest in retaining Fields in free agency, but he ultimately signed with the New York Jets on a 2-year, $40 million deal. Failure to match that modest price made it apparent that the Steelers didn’t view Fields as the QB of the future.
As the season approaches, the QB room will be totally revamped for the third consecutive year. Mason Rudolph, Skyler Thompson, and the assumed eventual addition of Aaron Rodgers will complete the QB overhaul for 2025. The franchise QB can gets kicked down the road into 2026, though it appears there is a plan forming.
The Plan
Heading into the offseason with more than $60 million in available cap space, it was the common belief that the Steelers would make an uncharacteristically big splash in free agency. On the eve of free agency, they traded for D.K. Metcalf, sending a 2025 second-round pick for the star wideout, who immediately filled a major need at wide receiver.
Throughout the early stages of free agency, the Steelers were quiet, with the signings of players like Darius Slay, Kenneth Gainwell, and Malik Harrison trickling in. In the meantime, major Steelers contributors such as Dan Moore, Najee Harris, and Elandon Roberts were being signed away. The Steelers’ motives were being questioned with $60 million in the bank and the lack of splash signings.
A speculative plan became more obvious. The Steelers weren’t signing free agents with a large price tag that would counter the compensatory draft picks they could receive in 2026 for the bevy of free agents they were losing. Omar Kahn confirmed that part of the Steelers’ offseason plan was to get involved in the compensatory pick game.
“We were in a position this year where we kind of understood where our contracts were with our free agents, and that a good possibility does exist for us to acquire comp picks, and so that’s always been a part of the process this year”
Although unconfirmed, it’s assumed that the additional compensatory picks were acquired strategically to compile draft capital in 2026, ultimately in pursuit of a quarterback. An abundance of mid-round picks will not land you a franchise QB, but will help you supplement the roster if your high-end draft capital is traded away.
Draft Capital, Value, and Position
Capital
The Steelers’ front office was correct in its assessment of the free agents they would lose. Overthecap.com projects the Steelers to be awarded an additional third, fourth, fifth, and sixth-round pick for the losses of Dan Moore, Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, and James Daniels, respectively. These compensatory selections, combined with the Steelers’ originals and the picks obtained in the George Pickens trade, give the Steelers a total of twelve picks in 2026 and seven in 2027.
Value
Dozens of picks are traded in each NFL draft. To do so, teams award each draft slot a numerical value. There are several popular draft value models, but for this exercise, I decided to use the Rich Hill Model. This model is updated yearly, with draft trades in recent years considered to place a value on every draft slot.
Position
Over the last ten drafts, the Steelers’ average first-round selection occurs at pick #21. For the purpose of this experiment, we’ll assume they continue that trend. The “success rate” for first-round QBs has been about 50% over that same span, with a whopping 88% of first-round QBs being selected with picks 1-16. It’s evident that the Steelers will need to move up in the draft to select the QB they want, hence the emphasis on the additional draft capital.
Using the Rich Hill Model and the Steelers’ available draft capital, I will run through a few hypothetical trades so we have a realistic expectation for what it may take to trade up in the 2026 NFL draft and finally acquire a quarterback of the future.
Potential Trade Partners
For this article, I called on some peers to help me set a consensus selection order for picks 1-16 of the 2026 NFL Draft. With the predetermined value for each slot, we can run hypothetical trades to see what the Steelers must give up to gain position to draft a top QB.
Trade #1 – 21st Overall to 3rd Overall (TEN)
The Saints and Browns would presumably draft the best two QB prospects first and second overall, leaving the third overall pick as the earliest potentially available slot via trade. The Tennessee Titans drafted their QB of the future, Cam Ward, in 2024 and could be looking to acquire more draft capital to continue to build around him.
Per the Rich Hill model, the third overall pick is worth 514 points. The Steelers would need to at least match this value to acquire the pick. In theory, this would require the Steelers’ first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, plus their 2026 second-round pick and a 2026 4th round pick, which totals 520 points.
This may get it done, but since the third overall pick would be the first slot available for trade, QB-needy teams may be willing to pay over market value for the pick. Giving up two first-round picks, a second, and a fourth feels rich for an organization that holds draft picks at such a high value, especially if it may take more.
Trade #2 – 21st Overall to 7th Overall (NYJ)
The Giants and Panthers hold the fourth and fifth overall selections, but having drafted first-round QBs in 2025 and 2024, respectively, they likely will not be in the market for one in 2026. They are potential trade candidates, but the value still requires the Steelers to give up two firsts and a second-round pick, which is similar to obtaining the third overall selection.
If the Jets have a good feeling about former Steelers QB Justin Fields, the seventh overall pick could be available. Valued at 426 points, it could be more easily obtained, and there are likely still franchise-altering QBs available.
Taking advantage of their own robust draft capital, the Steelers have several combinations they could offer the Jets. Their two first-round picks total 391 points, which leaves them only 35 points shy of matching the value of the seventh overall pick. Adding any one of their third-round picks in 2026 should get it done.
Offering their 2026 first-rounder, second rounder, and several mid-round picks gets them to the 426 point value, but the Jets likely would prefer the former option, giving them several high picks over two years rather than a single first-round pick and several mid-round picks in 2026 alone.
Trade #3 – 21st Overall to 10th Overall
J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, Deshaun Watson, and even Patrick Mahomes were all drafted tenth overall or later. There are sometimes good (and great) QBs still available as the draft continues, especially in strong QB classes.
The Raiders may be in the QB market, but the Dolphins (#11) and the Patriots (#12) likely won’t. This trade could be used to obtain any of the picks 10-12.
The tenth overall selection holds a value of 369 points, which is pretty easily obtainable for the Steelers. giving up their 2026 first-round pick, along with a 2026 third (80th overall), and a 2027 second, would match the value needed with 370. Sweetening the offer with a mid-round pick would still be a modest price to pay for the 10th, 11th, or 12th overall pick and the QB of the future.
Conclusion
If the 2025 regular season goes extremely unfavorably for the Steelers, none of this may be necessary. But, history indicates that no matter who the QB may be, the Steelers will be finishing without a losing record, therefore picking in the second half of the draft.
The Steelers have the ammunition to pull off any trade that they want, due to the strategic offseason moves they have made, acquiring draft capital. I believe the target position will be 8-12. They can land one of the top quarterbacks while still preserving enough capital to properly supplement the roster.
