The No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers (6-2) face one of their toughest tests of the season this Saturday against the No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (6-2).
Both squads have a tough road to the College Football Playoff. If either team loses this game, its odds of making the CFP are essentially zero.
So, there will be a lot of pressure on both squads to win. Unfortunately for the Volunteers, the Sooners boast one of the best defenses in the country. So, what are the expectations for both teams?
Tennessee
Although Oklahoma has a tough defense, Tennessee is no slouch on offense. Through eight games, the Vols have the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation, averaging 45.6 points per game.
Tennessee’s offense is led by standout transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar, who is coming off his best performance of the season in last week’s battle against Kentucky. Aguilar completed 76.9% of his passes for 396 yards and three touchdowns. If Aguilar keeps finding success, he’s on pace to have a historic season:
However, the Vols’ signal-caller isn’t the only player who had an impressive game last weekend. Three of their wide receivers posted 100-yard performances. Chris Brazzell II led the team in receiving with four receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown. Additionally, Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley combined for 212 yards and a score. All three receivers currently rank in the top seven in the SEC in receiving yards.
Tennessee also owns one of the best offensive lines in the FBS, allowing only nine sacks in eight games. Their front unit has also given up an average of 3.5 tackles for loss per game, tied for the eighth-best mark in the country.
On defense, the Volunteers have been lackluster at best. They currently rank No. 99 in the country in total defense, allowing a staggering 401.5 yards per game. One of their most significant issues is their inability to defend the pass. They give up an average of 266.2 passing yards per game, ranking No. 122 out of 134 programs.
On the bright side, Tennessee does have a respectable pass rush. The front seven averages 3.38 sacks per game and has recorded 27 total sacks this year. Additionally, eight defenders have four or more tackles for loss. Arguably their best defender, defensive lineman Joshua Josephs, has six tackles for loss, four sacks, and three forced fumbles through eight games.
Oklahoma
As mentioned earlier, Oklahoma’s defense has been dominant this season. The Sooners allow just 240.2 yards per game, which ranks No. 6 in the FBS. Not only do they not give up many yards, but they also generate plenty of sacks. The Sooners have 28 on the season, averaging 3.5 per game. Defensive end R. Mason Thomas is arguably Oklahoma’s best defender. He has 5.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble.
On offense, the Sooners are led by star quarterback John Mateer, who may still be recovering from a hand injury he suffered in September against Auburn. At the beginning of the season, Mateer had a lot of Heisman buzz, but since the injury, his numbers have dipped. So far, he’s thrown for 1,790 yards, including eight touchdowns and six interceptions. Although his passing numbers have declined since the injury, he remains dangerous as a runner, with more than 200 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
Overall, Oklahoma’s offense is nowhere near the level of its defense. The Sooners currently rank No. 77 in the country and average 28.4 points per game, good for No. 72 nationally. They haven’t scored more than 26 points against a Power Four opponent — something to monitor during the game.
Two Keys to Victory for Tennessee
1. Create Pressure Upfront to Force Turnovers
Tennessee’s first key to winning Saturday’s game is to create pressure on defense from the opening whistle. There’s a real chance Oklahoma’s players haven’t played in a stadium as loud as Neyland Stadium. Plus, the game will be at night, so the fans will likely be rowdy. If the Vols call blitzes early, it could energize the crowd and make Mateer uncomfortable.
Considering that Mateer is recovering from an injury — and because he’s thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns — this pressure could rattle him and force costly turnovers. Since Tennessee doesn’t have a strong pass defense, that pressure could also limit big plays through the air.
The Volunteers are tied for first in defensive touchdowns this season with five. Much of that success can be attributed to their pass rush, which forces opponents’ plays to fall apart. If the Vols can get sacks early, the crowd will be deafening, potentially creating communication issues for Oklahoma’s offense.
2. Use the Run to Open Up Deep Passes
The second key for Tennessee is to establish the run. After their 396-yard passing performance against Kentucky, the Sooners might expect the Vols to over-rely on passing plays. However, Tennessee also has an elite rushing attack led by DeSean Bishop. Over the course of the season, Bishop has rushed for 652 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. Additionally, Bishop rushed for a combined 269 yards against Alabama and Arkansas alone.
Bishop is a dynamic running back, but he isn’t the only one finding success. Star Thomas and Peyton Lewis have combined for 645 yards and 11 touchdowns this year.
If Oklahoma expects Tennessee to rely on the pass, the Vols could catch them off guard with a designed draw play that forces defenders to move closer to the line of scrimmage. If that happens, Tennessee could beat the Sooners downfield with deep throws.
Last week against Kentucky, Aguilar went 7-for-7 on passes of 20 yards or more, totaling 287 yards on deep throws. The Volunteers have arguably the best wide receiver corps in the country, so a strong rushing attack could lead to big plays later in the game.
Prediction: 38 Tennessee, 31 Oklahoma
