The Thursday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans brings plenty of intrigue for fantasy managers in Week 12. The Texans come into the matchup winning three of their last four games, but will be without CJ Stroud. Meanwhile, the Bills rebounded after their loss against the Dolphins last week, scoring 44 points in a win over the Bucs. Below, I’ll explain who you can trust in your lineups, who should stay on the bench, and which players fall into that tricky gray area for Thursday night.
Lock Them into Your Lineup
- Josh Allen QB (BUF)
- James Cook RB (BUF)
- Nico Collins WR (HOU)
Strong Starts
Woody Marks RB (HOU)
Woody Marks has emerged as a strong start in fantasy football for Week 12, even coming off a modest statistical outing against Tennessee. His usage remains elite, logging a 66% snap share and dominating the backfield touches while Nick Chubb continues to fade into a secondary role. Across his last five games, he has averaged 14.6 touches and has three double-digit fantasy performances, making him a dependable volume play. The matchup this week is outstanding, as Buffalo has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs and the most rushing touchdowns to the position. Additionally, the Bills have surrendered explosive runs at a top-four rate, aligning perfectly with Marks’ ability to create chunk plays when given space. Even with occasional efficiency concerns, he remains a dual-threat back who is heavily involved in the passing game. Houston’s offense will need to move the ball quickly in a likely fast-paced game script, and Marks profiles as the player most likely to benefit from that environment. He should be confidently started as an RB2 with upside.
Marks continues to hold a valuable fantasy football role thanks to his consistent opportunity share and the Texans’ increasing reliance on their ground game to support Davis Mills. He has posted positive EPA metrics in multiple games and shows signs of efficiency when the game script allows Houston to lean on him. Buffalo’s run defense has struggled in the red zone and ranks bottom five in rushing yards allowed, increasing Marks’ touchdown potential on Thursday night. Even if the Texans trail at times, his ability to stay on the field in passing situations keeps him fantasy relevant. The combination of volume, matchup, and offensive necessity all point toward him being one of the stronger start options at running back for Week 12. While he carries some boom-or-bust tendencies, his ceiling is too high to leave on the bench
Players to Sit
Khalil Shakir WR (BUF)
Khalil Shakir has become an easy sit heading into Week 12 due to a combination of poor usage, limited efficiency, and a brutal matchup. Last week, no Bills wideout reached even a 53% snap share, and Shakir managed only three targets that resulted in negative yardage. His average depth of target sits at just 4.2 yards, the lowest among all receivers with at least 25 targets, making him heavily reliant on yards after the catch. Without any end-zone involvement and zero red-zone targets, his scoring opportunity is nearly nonexistent. Buffalo’s offense spreads the ball around inconsistently, making it difficult for Shakir to carve out reliable fantasy value. His season totals of 46 receptions for 454 yards and three touchdowns paint a picture of a player with sporadic involvement rather than one trending upward.
Facing the Texans, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, his floor remains dangerously low. His lack of production in favorable matchups recently only increases the concern. Houston’s defense ranks top-three in pass DVOA and has allowed just 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game to wideouts, sharply limiting the chance of a bounce-back performance. His negative EPA in recent games against strong defenses underscores his difficulty generating meaningful production. With Buffalo likely leaning more on the run game in a tough road matchup, his opportunities may shrink even further. Shakir profiles as one of the weakest wide receiver options of the week and should be benched in all formats.
Dawson Knox TE (BUF)
Dawson Knox falls into the sit category for Week 12 in fantasy football after a disappointing performance despite increased snaps. Last week, he caught just one pass for 23 yards on three targets, even with Dalton Kincaid sidelined, failing to capitalize on an expanded opportunity. Knox has topped 50 receiving yards only once this season and has struggled to earn consistent targets, holding a target share under 10% in recent games. Buffalo’s offense has adopted a spread-the-ball approach that often leaves Knox as an afterthought in the passing game.
The matchup this week is the worst possible, as Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends and maintains a strong DVOA rating against the position. With limited red-zone involvement and no recent signs of a breakout, his fantasy outlook remains bleak. He offers minimal upside in this spot. While snap share alone may tempt some managers, the data overwhelmingly suggests that it does not translate usage into points. He should be avoided in Week 12, with stronger streaming options readily available.
Davis Mills QB (HOU)
Davis Mills remains a sit for Week 12 despite the high passing volume he has taken on in C.J. Stroud’s absence. Mills has averaged 43 pass attempts per game in his two starts, but his efficiency has been mediocre, ranking 34th in yards per attempt and 31st in danger plays. He has thrown for 566 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception during that span, and while serviceable, his fantasy ceiling remains limited. Mills has kept the team in games over the last few weeks, winning two straight games and supporting multiple fantasy options. This week’s matchup will be much tougher than his last two starts.
The matchup against Buffalo is extremely challenging, as they allow just 14.1 fantasy points to quarterbacks and sit near the top of the league in pass defense EPA. Buffalo ranks top-15 in pass DVOA and thrives at limiting explosive plays, capping any big-play potential from Houston’s receivers. They have dominated against quarterbacks this season, holding names like Patrick Mahomes and Drake Maye under 12.1 points. Mills will need to remain efficient under pressure, something he has struggled with, as indicated by his 37th-ranked EPA among quarterbacks. While his volume alone gives him a faint floor, the risk far outweighs the reward this week. He should be avoided in single-QB formats. Only superflex managers should consider him, and even then with caution.
Jayden Higgins WR (HOU)
Jayden Higgins is a recommended sit this week despite his growing role in Houston’s offense. The rookie has seen seven or more targets in three of his last four games, showing encouraging involvement as the potential WR2 behind Nico Collins. The rookie is now up to 23 catches on the year for 256 yards and three touchdowns, and is coming off a 55-yard outing this past week. He has finally stepped up as the team’s consistent number two option in terms of snaps played and routes run, which should help boost his consistency the rest of the season.
While I think better days are ahead, he now draws a difficult matchup against the Bills’ stingy secondary. Buffalo limits wide receivers to just 25.5 PPR points per game as a group and ranks near the top of the league in pass defense metrics. Higgins ranks just 76th in first-read target share and 73rd in target separation, highlighting his struggle to consistently create space. While his target floor is solid, the matchup significantly caps his upside. Fantasy managers should bench him for safer alternatives.
Nick Chubb RB (HOU)
Nick Chubb remains a clear sit Week 12, as his role in the Texans’ backfield has diminished significantly. He has played under 35% of the snaps in consecutive weeks and has not exceeded 10 touches in three straight games. Despite Buffalo’s vulnerability to the run, Chubb’s reduced workload makes him nearly unusable in fantasy lineups. His season totals of 419 rushing yards on 99 carries and two touchdowns reflect declining fantasy value, especially with Woody Marks taking over as the primary back. Chubb’s receiving involvement is minimal, with just 11 receptions for 59 yards, offering little PPR support. He has not reached 70 rushing yards in any game this season, highlighting his limited ceiling.
The Bills may present a favorable matchup on paper, but limited snaps make it nearly impossible for Chubb to capitalize. With Houston leaning pass-heavy behind Mills and featuring Marks a majority of the time now, Chubb’s path to meaningful production is extremely narrow. He should remain firmly on fantasy benches this week.
Other Buffalo Wide Receivers
The Bills’ wide receiver rotation has become one of the most unpredictable situations in fantasy football, making this group extremely difficult to trust in Week 12. With Keon Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, Curtis Samuel, Josh Palmer, Khalil Shakir, Mecole Hardman, and Gabe Davis all rotating between 40–55 percent of the snaps, no wideout has a stable enough route share to feel like a reliable start. Even Shavers, who broke out with 90 yards and a touchdown last week, played only 50 percent of snaps and benefited heavily from busted coverages rather than consistent volume. This passing game now leans on tight ends and running backs for chain-moving work, leaving the wide receivers with volatile target counts in an offense that spreads the ball aggressively. Facing a Texans secondary that ranks top-3 in fantasy points allowed to wideouts and allows just a 53.3 percent catch rate, the margin for error is incredibly thin. Houston has surrendered only six receiving touchdowns to WRs all season, further lowering the odds any Buffalo wideout delivers a spike week.
Fantasy managers should treat all Bills receivers as sits unless absolutely desperate for a Hail Mary play. Coleman may return to the lineup, but he has yet to show consistent separation, and Shavers’ emerging role still doesn’t guarantee dependable usage. Palmer offers the best route-running resume of the group, but even he is stuck in a rotation that has capped his fantasy ceiling. Houston’s elite pass defense, ranked third in DVOA, has erased explosive plays and forced offenses to win methodically, something Buffalo’s rotating WR corps hasn’t been able to do. With Josh Allen likely leaning more on the run and short-area targets, this wide receiver room has one of the lowest floors of the week. Keep them on the bench in Week 12, as no Buffalo WR can be viewed as a trustworthy fantasy football start.
On the Fence
Dalton Schultz TE (HOU)
Dalton Schultz enters Week 12 in a tough fantasy football matchup, but his recent usage keeps him firmly on the start/sit borderline. The Bills allow the fewest fantasy points to tight ends and boast a top-five DVOA against the position, which typically signals trouble for any mid-tier TE option. However, Schultz has emerged as Davis Mills’ security blanket, drawing 20 targets over the last two games and reaching at least eight fantasy points in seven of his last eight contests. His role has grown even more stable with a 19 percent target share, over 1.7 yards per route run, and at least 50 receiving yards in five of his last six outings. Even while managing a shoulder injury, Schultz has shown dependable volume and strong route participation, giving him a solid floor in PPR formats. With Mills averaging over 43 pass attempts per game, Schultz should again benefit from Houston’s pass-heavy approach.
Fantasy managers can consider Schultz a fringe TE1 for Week 12, especially if their alternative options lack volume. While the matchup is undeniably difficult, the Texans are likely to play from behind, which should push Schultz into another high-target outing. Buffalo’s defense has excelled at limiting tight ends, but its scheme often funnels short-area passes, the exact area where Schultz thrives. His touchdown upside is modest, but his consistent involvement keeps him in the weekly starter conversation, particularly for fantasy managers struggling at the position. In most formats, Schultz is still a viable Week 12 play due to opportunity outweighing matchup risk.
