Now more than ever, the term “Sleeper” likes to get thrown around a ton in fantasy baseball spaces. Everyone has their “sleepers“; meanwhile they’re talking about a top 80 player. To me, that’s a disservice to the term. A true sleeper is someone who is outside the conventional top 10-12 rounds of the draft. At minimum, a player higher than 150 ADP, who could break through and return much better value than their ADP suggests.
To actually win your fantasy league, it’s never about hitting on your top round guys. Top-end draft picks are almost always going to perform and be great statistical accumulators. It’s about finding the real gems in the later rounds that can elevate the ceiling of your production. That’s how you find a real edge come draft time.
It’s also not about finding the unknown players; these players aren’t hidden by any means. It’s more about finding the ones who are falling through the cracks. This is what separates a successful fantasy squad, and it’s what will guide your fantasy squads to the championship. If your 200th overall pick returns top 100 value, you just hit the jackpot.
Here are my 5 players that are true to the term, and all come in with an ADP beyond 150 or later.
Sleeper #1 – Munetaka Murakami
After a much hyped offseason, Japanese superstar Munetaka Murakami signed with the Chicago White Sox to a 2-year, $34 million deal. Murakami joins the MLB after spending his 2018-2025 seasons in the NPB. During that spell, Murakami must watch television. He was breaking records and smashing balls in what some consider to be the “deal-ball” era of the NPB.
In 2026, he looks to continue his wrath of elite power hitting in white sox pinstripes. While in the NPB, Murakami averaged an unimaginably impressive 166 wRC+, in combination with hitting 33+ home runs a year. In 2022, he put up Aaron Judge numbers. He produced an out-of-this-world season where he went on to have a monster 225 wRC+, while smashing 56 home runs, and a slash line of .318/.458/.710.
Why is he a sleeper? Well, all things considered, the fantasy platforms and consensus haven’t begun to understand the level of excellence that he possesses. This was for all purposes, the single most dominant NPB player over an exceptional 7-year run. His only competitors in the NPB over those years were the Chicago Cubs, Seiya Suzuki, and the newly signed Toronto Blue Jays, Kazuma Okamoto.
If I told you a player had 7 years of evidence suggesting they’re one of the world’s best hitters, you’d surely draft them? That’s how obvious it is with Murakami, and all for the price of a 14th-round pick or later.
In 2026, Munetaka is looking to continue his streak of domination at the plate. An accumulation of FanGraphs projections suggests he could put up a respectable wRC+ of 119 in his first year. His home run total projects to be around 30. His batting average is where some variance shows up; projections suggest is avg could be anywhere between .210 and .240. So there’s a bit of risk involved in a categories league, especially if he plans to sell out for power.
A player like Munetaka Murakami entering the league doesn’t happen often, an international superstar with the evidence to back him up. With an ADP of #179, he’s my go-to pick if I need a 1B, 3B, CI, or even another Utility bat in the later rounds of the draft. I don’t mind reaching for him if I need more home runs for my squad too.
If you told me at the end of the year that he hit 40+ home runs, I’d say that’s well within his range of outcomes; he’s really that good. He will far outperform his ADP and can fit a multitude of fantasy team builds. You’re welcome in advance if you draft him.
Sleeper #2 – Masyn Winn
This year, the shortstop position is loaded. So loaded that I advise spending higher picks for more crucial positions that have some scarcity. If you do this, you might end up needing a serviceable or backup shortstop in the later rounds; that’s where St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn shows up.
With an ADP of 276 per Fantasy Pros, there’s a chance he won’t even be drafted in a conventional 12-team fantasy league. How that’s happening is beyond my understanding. Winn is a clear candidate for a breakout. In the last couple of years, he’s consistently flirted with being a 15 home run, 15 steals player.
He consistently shows flashes of being more than that, all while providing top-level defence at the shortstop position. In a deeper league, he’s an excellent flyer as a backup shortstop or middle infielder. His slash line projected by FanGraphs is respectable as well. He is projecting for a .250/.305/388, pretty solid for those who play in category leagues. It’s not the most flashy, but it’s serviceable at a more than fair price point.
His breakout will come in the sense of accumulation. If he manages to stay healthy and play 150+ games, he could easily provide 15+ home runs and even try to test for 20+ stolen bases. Baseball Savant says he has 77% sprint speed, which we can see on display on some of the defensive stops he makes during games.
Now imagine he gets a push to use that and causes havoc on the base-paths. For a player who might not even be drafted in your league, it’s a risk-free high upside player to take. A defensive monster who has the opportunity and youth to push himself to the next level as a hitter. For Masyn Winn, I think his absolute best outcome would be about 20 home runs and pushing 20 stolen bases, all for a last rounder in your fantasy drafts.
Sleeper #3 – Kazuma Okamoto
Our third sleeper is Japanese phenom Kazuma Okamoto. He signed for a 4-year $60 million deal this offseason with the Toronto Blue Jays. This one is cut from the very same cloth as my earlier Munetaka Murakami pick. These Japanese studs are simply not being valued high enough compared to where they should be. Unlike Murakami, Kazuma is a much better all-around hitter and possesses a few more abilities within his game. He’s a mix of contact, power, and avg.
In the NPB, Kazuma was a superstar for 5+ years. He comes with evidence and a catalogue of indicators that suggest not only will he perform in the MLB, but he’ll certainly outperform his fantasy pros ADP of 193. In the NPB, Kazuma had an average 163.5 wRC+, while mashing 32 home runs a year. Again, all while the NPB is at the peak of their “dead-ball” era. In 2023, he had one of the best NPB seasons ever. He put up a ridiculous 180 wRC+, crushed 41 home runs, and slashed for .278/.374/.584.
Again, just like Murakami, we have to ask why Kazuma Okamoto is being left so far behind in the draft? The answer is the same. He’s being undervalued due to his “unknown” performance at the MLB level. This, to me, is unacceptable, as again, we have 5+ years of a superstar-level track record in the NPB. Couple this with him being on the Toronto Blue Jays, there’s no saying he can’t outperform his rbis and run totals.
This level of consistency is what fantasy managers should dream of. A respectable bat, in one of the MLB’s best lineups, hitting in the heart of the order. Kazuma has the perfect conditions to severely outplay his ADP of #193.
His 25+ home run projections might be just the tip of the iceberg. In spring training, he already demolished a 430ft home run right down centre field. Showing flashes of being able to adapt to and hit MLB pitching. His ADP of #193 puts him right around the 14th round, which just makes this pickup even sweeter.
A 14th+ round pick giving you top potential top 100 value with positional flexibility is immensely valuable. With all that said, Kazuma could easily outdo his projections based on his history in the NPB, his lineup position, and his bat-to-ball skills. I am beyond thrilled to see him join the MLB, and l look forward to seeing his performances.
Sleeper #4 – Jac Caglianone
In a spring training game, Jac Caglianone hit a 2-rbi double that had an exit velocity of 120.2 MPH per the MLB. That makes it the 3rd hardest ball hit in the MLB within the last year, only topped by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
and Oneil Cruz. Last year, Jac Caglianone only featured for 232 PAs, a mediocre sample size but one we can work with. If we filter for all batters who appeared in 200+ PAs, he ranked top 80 in both barrel % and adjusted EV. Meaning he makes excellent contact and does so incredibly hard.
Jac Caglianone is only 23 years old heading into this season, with so much room to expand his game and abilities. His last year for the Kansas City Royals served as just a taste of what he might bring in a full season in the big leagues.
Also, let’s not forget one of the most relevant baseball and fantasy baseball storylines of the offseason, the fact that the Royals are moving in their outfield fences by 10ft. This expands Jac’s room to create even more havoc and potentially blow past some projections.
An accumulation of FanGraphs projections suggests that Caglianone could put up a 105 wRC+, with 18+ home runs and a .250 avg. For a player with a fantasy pros ADP of #222, this is a perfect low risk high reward pick that could be a home run if it turns out.
With the fences at Kauffman Stadium moving in 10ft, it gives him an even higher chance to go nuclear; the same goes for the rest of the Royals lineup. When looking at his ADP, it definitely screams value, and he could easily be in a position to return top 130 value over the year.
In September, if we look back and Jac Caglianone hit for 25-30 home runs, I don’t think that’s entirely out of his range of outcomes. For his ADP of #222 per fantasy pros, a return in that realm would run circles compared to other round 18+ picks in the draft. I can’t wait to see if this is the first big year of Jac’s MLB career.
Sleeper #5 – Jack Leiter
Now time for a pitcher, and I wanna talk about the recent development of Texas Rangers pitcher, Jack Leiter. Last year, Jack Leiter had a more than respectable season in Texas. He started in 29 games, accrued 151.2 innings with a 3.86 ERA and 148 K’s. For all purposes, he was a good, fair price option for Strikeouts in 2025.
In 2026, Jack is looking to not only maintain, but really expand on his solid 2025 season. In spring training, Jack showcased a brand new cutter, which adds to his pitching arsenal. When asked why he added the cutter to his bag, he stated, “I need to finish at bats more efficiently”.
He couldn’t be more honest; that is exactly what he was struggling with during last year, and had outings where he threw more pitches than he wanted to early in games. It clearly shows a want to get better, and is just a hint of what he could have in store for this season.
Fantasy Pros has him ranked as the #75 ranked starting pitcher, and an overall ADP of #255. This essentially makes him a complete flyer and will place him in the 21st round of 12-team leagues. The truth to Leiter is that he is an innings eater, and that Texans’ pitching staff loves what he brings.
Per Baseball Savant, Jack has a 91st percentile fastball run value, partnered with 88th percentile fastball velocity and 88th percentile extension. This means his fastball comes down significantly quicker than usual, regardless of what it clocks at. Now, add the fact that he’s projected for another 150+ innings, and this could be a really nice low-risk baseline draft pick in the late rounds to round out your pitching depth. Leiter won’t give you elite numbers all the time, but he’ll certainly show flashes of it over the duration of the season.
Final Thoughts & 2026 Draft Considerations
Now we have our 5 sleepers, let’s see where you can reasonably target them in your fantasy drafts.
- Munetaka Murakami – ADP 179 – Target for rounds 13-16, depending on league, prioritize if you need a high power upside bat.
- Masyn Winn – ADP 276 – Target in last 2 or so rounds of draft, especially if you need shortstop depth, or middle infield depth. Will be a respectable accumulator with a chance to go for 15+ HR and 20+ steals.
- Kazuma Okamoto – ADP 193 – Target after round 14, great accumulator and potential 30+ HR bat.
- Jac Caglianone – ADP 222 – Target in rounds 18+, especially if you need outfield depth or simply want a high upside bat who might be able to push for 25-30 HR.
- Jack Leiter – ADP 255 – Target end rounds of draft, especially if need consistent pitching depth, innings pitched, and strikeout upside.
In Fantasy Baseball, there are always a few players who smash through the ceiling of their expectations. The quote on quote “sleepers”, “hidden gems”, and “league winners”. The fantasy managers who research and find these players before their drafts are the ones who end up winning their leagues most often. Each one of the above-mentioned players could make that leap and end up being a catalyst for your championship roster. My advice is simple. Don’t be afraid to reach for high upside players in the late rounds, especially if all the signs are pointing to their success.
