In Fantasy Baseball, a player’s value is one of the most important things you can analyze during draft season. Every year, rankings push players up and down for a variety of reasons. Some players are suddenly and inexplicably labeled as injury-prone, while others can be seen as completely risk-free picks. In reality, we can never fully be certain about how a player’s season will pan out.
This is what makes understanding value such an important asset for fantasy managers.
The single most important skill that fantasy managers can develop is identifying the gap between a player’s true value and their draft cost. Put simply, this means recognizing which players are likely to perform much better than their ADP suggests.
From my experience, a recurring theme emerges in nearly all of my fantasy drafts. I scan the draft board, spot a player still sitting there, and think.
“Wait… this guy is still available here?”
It’s a fantasy manager’s dream scenario. We quite literally spend the entire offseason researching to make sure these exact moments happen.
So, with that in mind, here are my 5 hitters who I think are significantly undervalued and will perform above their cost.
Yordan Alvarez – ADP #33
I won’t lie, calling Yordan Alvarez undervalued seems a bit weird, but to me, there’s no doubt that he is. Since 2021, Yordan has been one of the best and most consistent hitters in the MLB. However, this year, there has been a notion surrounding the Houston Astros superstar regarding his health. Somehow, the idea that he is injury-prone has spread to his name. Which is the singular reason why his cost is currently where it is.
For context, in 2025, Yordan had a very uncharacteristic and unfortunate season. A string of lingering injuries that led to extended IL stints. Ultimately, Yordan only featured in 48 games in his 2025 season. By all intents and purposes, this was a severe outlier season in Yordan’s career, who averaged 135 games played in his previous 4 seasons.
In those four years, Yordan was an uncontested top 10-15 hitter in the sport. His counting stats and slash lines prove it. From 2021-2024, Yordan averaged an absurd 165 wRC+ with 34 home runs a year. This came with a top ten slash line in the sport as well. He managed to slash an average of .296/.388/.574 over that four-year period.
When healthy, which he frequently is. Yordan is typically a top 18 pick, and in 2023, his ADP was as high as 6th overall.
Because of his clear outlier season, Yordan is being criminally undervalued, and you can pick him up at an ADP of 33. A player who’s currently going in the middle of the third round who could give you a top 10-15 return.
Healthy Yordan Alvarez seasons almost guarantee immense production. For Yordan, we can expect something in the range of 30-40 home runs, with an elite slash line. If you play in a category league, Yordan is a category monster and a great overall bat. Of course, he lacks speed, but his hitting consistency makes up for his lack of steals.
At a current ADP of 33, I am drafting as many Yordan Alvarez shares as I can. Everything points to his 2025 season being an extreme outlier. If his performance in 2026 can even touch that of his production from 2021-2024, his owners in fantasy leagues are in for a very fun time.
Vinnie Pasquantino – ADP #82
After a career year, Vinnie Pasquantino is being undervalued for reasons I’m not even sure of. From a pure skill standpoint, Vinnie is one of the more elite first basemen in the league and should be looked at as such. In 2025, Vinnie blew his projections out of the water and then some. He demolished baseballs for fun and ended the year with 32 HR, 72 R, 113 RBI, and slashed for a respectable .264/.323/.475. Vinnie was 6th in the entire MLB in RBI, and yet we’re placing him outside the top 80 drafted players? Something is clearly not clicking.
On top of those impressive numbers. Vinnie has a great all-around approach and skill set at the plate. Per Baseball Savant, in 2025, Vinnie was top 55 in barrel %, top 70 in EV50, top 50 in xSLG, and had a Max EV in the top 8% of the MLB. His savant page is a really good look at the kind of balance he brings. (See Below).
Vinnie is coming off an amazing year, and I am surprised he’s actually not on the other side of this list. Mid-offseason, I assumed he would be overvalued based on his breakout year, but that is not the case.
Another intricate piece to this analysis is the stadium adjustments that the Kansas City Royals have decided to implement for the 2026 season. For reference, the entire outfield wall is to be moved 10ft closer. Giving Vinnie and the entire Royals offence even more room for power spikes. Theoretically, had the walls been moved in prior to 2025, Vinnie could have gone for 40+ home runs last year instead of his already impressive 32.
Vinnie isn’t just the ordinary power bat at first base; he really is a jack of all trades. In points and category leagues alike, he will be able to provide elite production. Compared to other first basemen with higher costs like Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers, or Josh Naylor. I can easily see a world where Vinnie ends up outproducing a bunch of them at Kauffman Stadium this year.
All things considered, I think the first base position is exceptional this year, and Vinnie Pasquantino is a great player to take a bit later if you want to get ahead of other positions first. His ADP of 82 seems a bit too far for the value he could actually give you. A full 2026 with a moved in outfield could lead him to get 40+ home runs, 100+ rbi, and an even stronger slash line. This ,to me, gives him tremendous value relative to his cost.
Dansby Swanson – ADP #152
Most players tend to lose their perceived value because of injuries or predicted regression. Dansby Swanson is neither of those. His fault this year is that he’s too boring because of the inflation of incredible shortstops.
In 2026, Dansby will be going into his age 32 season and his fourth year with the Chicago Cubs. In this four-year window with the Cubs, and even previously with the Atlanta Braves, Dansby has been one of the most consistent players in the MLB.
Since 2021, Dansby has averaged 155 games played. To me, this is one of the highest reasons for a value discrepancy. As a fantasy player, the one thing we love most above all is availability. Even having platoon bats can drive us crazy at times. The worst part of fantasy baseball is injuries and missed games. When the injuries and IL tags start to pile up, you literally feel the league starting to slip away from you.
Dansby is the exact opposite of that feeling. He is Mr. Available. With very respectable counting stats to follow. In the last 5 years, Dansby has averaged 155+ games played, with 20+ HR and 15+ SB. His slash lines have also been pretty solid, putting up .251/.316/.437 during that period.
Part of the reason Dansby is not higher ranked is because of his ceiling limitations. Essentially, we pretty much know exactly what he will produce in a given year. Anything beyond 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases would be a treat. On the other hand, having that stable floor and steady production rack up, especially in a category league, is really good.
Compared to the shortstops ranked above him, there is a real chance he can outperform them and be more available. Players like Jeremy Pena and Trevor Story are good comparisons with ADPs 40+ picks higher.
If I told you that you could have a shortstop or middle infielder play a near guaranteed 155+ games, while putting up 20+ HR and 15+ SB for a 12th round pick or later, you’d be pretty happy. Swanson is my biggest value target for the shortstop position outside of the conventional superstar options in the earlier rounds of the draft.
Ceddanne Rafaela – ADP #160
In 2025, Ceddanne Rafaela was 3rd in the entire MLB in DRS, or “defensive runs saved,” with 21 to his name. The only two players with more were Ernie Clement of the Toronto Blue Jays and Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians. For his efforts, Rafaela was awarded his first career Gold Glove Award as an outfielder.
Due to his all-league defensive capabilities, Rafaela will continue to be a lock in the Red Sox lineup, and also provides multi-positional eligibility. The second base position in fantasy baseball is by far the worst. That happens to be a recurring trend year by year. With an ADP of 160 for Ceddanne Rafaela, you can use him as a very versatile option that can cover that hole at second base.
Rafaela’s profile is very appealing, his speed and athleticism are two of his biggest strengths. Per Baseball Savant, Rafaela has a 92nd percentile base running run value and sprint speed. Which I know he intends to use even more this year.
In an offseason interview with Boston-based news radio WEEI-FM, Boston Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow stated the following.
“We’re definitely looking to use a more aggressive base running strategy to capitalize on opportunities to steal more bases”.
Rafaela’s current stolen base projections land at about 20. However, with this intentional strategy of aggression on the base paths. I think there could be an opportunity where he crushes that number. This goes for all Red Sox players as well. I think it’s well within Ceddanne Rafaela’s range of outcomes to snag closer to 40 bases instead of 20. On top of this, we know that steals lead to more runs scored, which will inflate his numbers there too.
Rafaela is already one of the MLB’s more exciting defensive players. Transitioning that to the other side of the game just feels like the natural progression. For him to be ranked as the 9th second baseman with an ADP of 160 is a massive disservice to him and the Red Sox’s upside. To me, he should be closer to a top 4-5 second baseman with an ADP around 100. For 2026, I could see him going for 20+ home runs, 40+ stolen bases while maintaining his decent slash lines of .245/.300/.420.
If you think the second base position is as dead as I do, take Rafaela and enjoy his versatility, high stolen base upside, and every day bat.
Ivan Herrera – ADP 164
The MLB recently published their top 100 player rankings for the 2026 season. In that list, only one St. Louis Cardinal player made the cut. Obviously, I am talking about catcher and designated hitter Ivan Herrera. Why is this relevant, you’re asking? Well, because he truly is the best player on their roster. Whether he plays as a catcher or DH, the Cardinals are going to give him a ton of opportunities.
In his 2025 season, Herrera managed to put up a solid 19 home runs in 107 games. His 2026 year was beginning to get exciting but then cut short by injury. Over the season, Herrera faced some lingering hamstring issues and had loose bodies removed from his elbow that ended his season. These injuries are certainly a factor in his ADP being 164, and being ranked as the 12th catcher.
When we begin to unpack Herrera’s 2026, let’s look at the numbers had he played 162 games. His 19 home runs blow up to 29 home runs over a full 162, with his runs and rbi’s exploding from 54 and 66 to a monstrous 81 and 100. Another fun quirk is that he likes to be active on the base paths as well, providing a great 10+ projected stolen as a catcher. There is no doubt that Herrera is one of the most dangerous catchers at the plate. In fact, he’s so good that the Cardinals are most likely going to play him as their full-time DH while his elbow gets back to health.
His Baseball Savant profile agrees with this assessment. In terms of his hitting profile, Ivan Herrera has one of the more attractive savant pages in the entire MLB, and certainly for a catcher. He is 88th percentile in batting run value, which places him in the 30th overall in the entire MLB, and the 4th overall best catcher.
His profile presents wonderfully, and compares him to some of the MLB’s most prolific hitters. For comparison, the similar batters he is compared to have ADPs of 15, 38, 65, and 58. With Emmanuel Rivera being an extreme outlier.
To me, it’s pretty clear that his health is the biggest risk, but if he manages to reach or exceed his projected 130 games, he will be one of the best catchers in fantasy baseball. His ADP of 164 is far too high, and having 11 other catchers ranked above him is bewildering. My analysis suggests he could end the season as a top 4-5 catcher, making his real value somewhere in the 90-110 range.
Final Thoughts & Draft Considerations
Now that I’ve outlined the 5 “undervalued” players, let’s recap and see where you can currently get them in drafts.
- Yordan Alvarez – ADP 33 – An elite bat being clearly discounted for his weird outlier season. When healthy, he really offers a top-10 to 15 hitting production and is currently at a mid-third-round price.
- Vinnie Pasquantino – ADP 82 – Coming off a breakout year, he still finds himself underpriced. He has elite underlying metrics and a new stadium change that could smash his home run production even higher. His 2026 outlook is fascinating, and he could return far beyond his value of a late 6th-round pick.
- Dansby Swanson – ADP 152 – Mr. consistent! Currently being undervalued because he is a bit too safe and boring. We all know his ceiling isn’t high, but he provides an excellent floor. Compared to higher-ranked shortstops with injury problems, in the late 12th round and beyond, he is a bargain and is as close to a “worry-free” pick as it gets.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – ADP 160 – Gold Glover who has become one of the most exciting defensive players in the MLB. In 2026, he is slotted for a potential speed breakout with the Red Sox’s new approach to base running. For a player who you can grab in the 13th round, he could genuinely produce 20+ HR and 40+ SB with 2B eligibility. A complete steal.
- Ivan Herrera – ADP 164 – With a healthy offseason behind him and a full season as a DH, he is a very intriguing breakout candidate. His batting profile and per 162 numbers suggest he could be an incredible player, and certainly a premier option with catcher eligibility. For a late 13th round pick, it’s not out of the question that he could put up 30+ HR with a great slash line. He could end up being a top 90 player and a top 5 catcher.
Value is the backbone of fantasy drafts, and it is what really separates fantasy managers apart. Every year, there is a handful of players who come out and smash their projections and cost. More often than not, it’s the teams with these guys that find themselves winning the championship at the end of the fantasy season. If the trends hold up, I think these 5 players mentioned are game changers for their costs. To me, they are the clearest candidates where a value gap clearly exists.
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