When betting on the UFC, it’s important to remember that a simple checked leg kick gone wrong could burn your bet slip. With that in mind, here are the best picks for tonight’s UFC Fight Night in Mexico.
Brandon Moreno -5.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
Despite being 2-3 in his last five fights, Brandon Moreno keeps every fight within striking distance of him winning. In his 34 professional fights, his most recent bout against Tatsuro Taira marked the first time he had been finished in a fight. That makes this bet feel very safe, as he has a low chance of having his night end on the canvas. With that, his other losses have been to the best of the best in this division.
Including Taira, Deiveson Figueirdo, Alexandre Pantoja, Brandon Royval, and Sergio Pettis are the only members of the UFC to be the victor over Moreno. Three of them rank within five spots of Moreno in the Flyweight rankings, with Figueiredo having moved up a weight class and Pettis switching promotions. Apart from the Taira loss, Moreno has kept all but two of those UFC losses extremely close, with the losses to Royval and Pantoja coming by split decision.
But, enough about his losses, we’re focused on his likelihood of winning. Moreno has good volume in his striking ability, while being able to avoid the most devastating blows. His best bet for this fight is to keep it on the feet, as Lone’er Kavanagh has been very successful at defending the takedown. The biggest advantage Moreno has over Kavanagh is his gas tank. Of his last 10 fights, six have gone to the fifth round. As well, this is a huge step up for the English fighter. He hasn’t faced someone as experienced or skilled as Moreno across his young career. Add the fact that the fight takes place in Moreno’s home country, and all signs point toward a bounce-back win for UFC’s No. 6 flyweight.
David Martinez O 76.5 Significant Strikes (-115 on DraftKings)
Having an opponent like Marlon Vera is the perfect case scenario for an over-significant strikes bet. Vera has never been knocked out before, and he very rarely attempts takedowns, so this fight will end up being on the feet. Of Vera’s last five fights, this line for his opponent has been exceeded in four, including his most recent win against Pedro Munhoz.
Enter a fighter like David Martinez, who doesn’t absorb damage and only deals it out. His only flaw is accuracy, landing just 40% of his strikes against Rob Font his last time out. However, given the style of Vera, the accuracy shouldn’t be too much of an issue. The only thing that could ruin this bet is either Vera suffering his first knockout or Martinez getting finished. However, given that the O/U line for rounds is 2.5 at -425, this fight should see the final horn.
Daniel Zellhuber Method of Victory Double Chance: KO/Submission (+105 on DraftKings)
Before the UFC, Daniel Zellhuber was a finishing machine, with only two of his bouts going to the final horn, in which he was victorious in both. Since joining the UFC, his fights have gone to the judges’ scorecard. If he wants to make a name for himself and truly put himself on people’s radars, a dominating victory is needed.
Who better for his opponent to be than King Green, who has been either knocked out or submitted in each of his last five losses? Three of those losses have helped the victors catapult their careers: current welterweight champion Islam Makhachev, UFC’s No. 6 lightweight Paddy Pimblett, and No. 9 Mauricio Ruffy. Zellhuber has a lot of favorable factors over his opponent, including a 13-year age advantage. In fights where there’s a 10+ year age gap, the youthful fighter has won 71% of the time. Add the height and reach advantage, and the perfect storm is brewing for Zellhuber to end the night with a referee pulling him off Green.
Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco U 1.5 Rounds (-120 on DraftKings)
This fight has fireworks written all over it. You have two fighters who have won by finish in all of their respective victories. Both fighters land over five significant strikes per minute. Neither fighter shoots takedowns. It’s going to be straight fists and feet. Though neither has been finished, the human body can only absorb so many blows before it gives in. If you want to take a riskier bet, Santiago Luna by knockout at +130 is enticing. But, either way, there is a low probability of this fight seeing more than seven and a half minutes of action.
Allin Perez -3.5 (+150) on DraftKings)
This is by far Allin Perez’s toughest task in her UFC career. Yet, history shows it doesn’t matter who gets thrown her way. Apart from her UFC debut loss, Perez has dominated her opponents, averaging over 4.5 takedowns per contest. As well, she can deal out damage while not absorbing too much. For -3.5 to cover, she would either need to find her second UFC finish or have one of the three judges feel she won all three rounds. This isn’t a new concept for her, as she’s covered this line in all of her five UFC wins.
Her opponent, Macy Chiasson, is a big step up. She defends the takedown very well and can dish out some devastating strikes. She is on a two-fight losing streak to a pair of top-five women’s bantamweights. Perez hasn’t fought in over a year, so rust could be the downfall of the Argentinian fighter, but if she comes out the way she’s accustomed to, -3.5 feels like a done deal.
