Who are the unlikely candidates to be #1 overall at their position? Every year, every fantasy football, baseball, basketball, and hockey analyst is tasked with identifying ‘breakout’ players. The name of the game is to find value within your fantasy draft so that you can outpace your league mates on the way to a victory in your league championship. Breakouts can be chosen on a variety of metrics, and everyone has a different combination that they like best.
However, that’s not quite what I’m here to do. I am aiming to find highly talented players who are unlikely to finish as the number one overall at their position. All of these players are proven fantasy assets to some degree, with most projected to be Top-12 at their position. Within the Top 12, we can still distinguish between multiple tiers of players. I’ll also look at players further down the draft rankings who, though unlikely, have the potential (through ability or situation) to be the #1 at their position.
Quarterback
Drake Maye – New England Patriots
Drake Maye was a part of possibly the worst roster in the NFL in 2024. Maye had the underwhelming combination of DeMario ‘Pop’ Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Kendrick Bourne as his wide receiver room in 2024. The good news? The room just got a lot better—hopefully—with Stefon Diggs… who, at 32, is coming off a torn ACL. Nevertheless, there’s hope. Anyway, there is hope in that room now, along with former Atlanta Falcon and Buffalo Bill Mack Hollins, who is a nice piece.
Maye also had one of the worst offensive lines last season. They ranked dead last in the NFL according to many different respected measures. Even when they weren’t last, they were at the bottom of the league. The Patriots made some improvements in free agency, including adding offensive tackle Morgan Moses.
New England, with the most cap room in the NFL, spent big on their defense in this year’s saga of free agency, bringing in Carlton Davis (CB), Robert Spillane (LB), Harold Landy III (LB), and most notably, Super Bowl champion Milton Williams (DT). Mike Vrabel is looking to boost the defensive side of the ball before assisting Drake Maye with some weapons.
The Patriots also extended running back Rhamondre Stevenson to a four-year, $36 million contract in June of last year. He will be their main back for the foreseeable future. They have a couple of moves to potentially make in the coming months before the 2025 season kicks off. They could make a big draft night trade to find a pass catcher in the draft or trade out of a pick for a disgruntled veteran. Maybe Kyle Pitts? (Pure Speculation)
Why would I suggest Drake Maye to be a candidate for the #1 quarterback slot in 2025? It is simple. Many players are ranked ahead of him in the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) at #15, but I’m not fully convinced about some of them—Bo Nix, for example. Among the others, it would not surprise me if one of them made it to the #1 spot.
Drake Maye showed great talent last season that ultimately could put him in a different stratosphere than some of these other middle-tier players like Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield. He has a natural ability to run the football. In just 13 games, he ran for over 400 yards and punched it in twice for a score. That is just over 32 yards a game, which puts him right next to the guy I would compare him to.
Maye’s comparison has been the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL over the last five seasons. In his third year, he finished with the same number of rushing yards as Maye (421). Josh Allen broke out in 2020, with a similar skill set to Maye, with a rocket arm, mobility, size, and creativity. Maye finally has a good coach in Mike Vrabel, as well as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who’s returning after a three-year absence..
Maye has the upside of someone like Josh Allen, which is simply the biggest reason why. No one other than Allen, Daniels, Jackson, Mahomes, and Burrow has the true upside to become a number one. Even though Maye has an upside, the achievement of that is the most difficult aspect. I believe the Patriots get a true #1 receiver and a better backup running back than Antonio Gibson (to change the pace from Rhamondre Stevenson) through the draft. This could take Maye to the QB #1 position.
Another reason for the comparison is the link between the 2020 Stefon Diggs to Josh Allen connection that elevated his game to an elite level. Yes, it may be a stretch, but I outlined the projected effects in the article, ‘Stefon Diggs and Drake Maye’s Fantasy Football Outlooks in 2024.’
Note: Travis Hunter could help, but is likely to play on the defensive side of the ball more often.
QB – Honorable Mention
Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers
An honorable mention is the quarterback from Green Bay who has a jump throw that competes with his two predecessors, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love has shown the ability to be an elite-level player. His problem is consistency. In Weeks 4 to 11, he threw for 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while averaging 260 yards per game. Not bad, but with minimal rushing production (6.5 rushing yards per game), he has not been an elite fantasy asset thus far in his career.
The hope for Love lies in the Packers finally providing him with a true #1 receiver to steady the offense. I am reminded of the old saying, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks”. Well, for the Packers’ wide receiver corps, I’ll tweak it: “If you have six wide receivers, you might have half of three?” It needs some workshopping, but you get the point. The Packers’ wide receiver group, plagued by injuries and a lack of talent, hasn’t supported a young quarterback like Love in the way he needs to succeed.
Despite these challenges, Love has shown flashes of rushing ability, passing for four touchdowns, and even going on streaks of avoiding interceptions. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he becomes one of the league’s best quarterbacks. His paycheck already suggests his potential, and while we may see a repeat of 2024, there’s a real possibility he breaks out.
Running Back
Bucky Irving – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving, man…What a 2024 season this guy had out of Oregon for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He rushed for 1,122 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Added 300+ yards receiving as well. For a 4th round pick to make an impact that early in his young career is special. He took over the job from Rachaad White without much of a struggle.
Bucky Irving took over the bulk of the workload starting in week 10. He averaged 18.5 touches per game from week 10 on. This is an impressive workload for a midseason rookie. His competition was Rachaad White, who essentially became a blocker according to their former offensive coordinator, Liam Coen. There is nothing wrong with that statement if you have shares in Bucky Irving.
Liam Coen did take the Jaguars’ job, which can be cause for some caution. The OC provided that offense with some explosive firepower, essentially reviving Baker Mayfield’s career. Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s pass game coordinator a year ago, is taking over as OC. This allows for the squad to keep continuity in the building and offense.
Irving also led the NFL in Missed tackle percentage with a 37.1% missed tackle percentage (76 missed tackles). He also set a Tampa Bay Buccaneers record for rush yards per attempt (5.4). This also ranked as the third-highest in NFL history amongst rookies. To keep with the theme of amazing statistics that Bucky Irving has accomplished, He gained an extra 609 rushing yards after forcing a missed tackle. He also earned Pro Football Focus’s highest graded rookie.
Bucky Irving is my breakout pick to be, although unlikely, the RB1 overall. His dynamic ability to miss would-be tacklers is second to none for a young player like him.
RB – Honorable Mention
Chase Brown – Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown was a part of one of the most dynamic, although at times streaky, offenses last season. They kept the continuity over the offseason as well, resigning Tee Higgins and giving an extension to Ja’Marr Chase.
Chase Brown was a popular player for the zero RB builds in fantasy football last season, and boy, did he not disappoint. His 11 combined rushing touchdowns (rushing + receiving) were one of the more impressive statistics he put up. He was the RB7 from Week 4 to Week 18 when he took a full-time workload. This is impressive for a player first getting a full workload. He is undersized, and the draft pedigree is not stellar, but that being said, Zac Taylor likes his use on the ground and through the air.
Provided the Bengals do not use a high draft pick to replace Chase Brown, which could happen, I could see him ending up in the conversation for RB1 overall. The explosiveness of the offense combined with a snap share of 65%. He could get the job done.
Wide Reciever
Malik Nabers – New York Giants
Malik Nabers was hands down the most electric rookie of the 2024 season. He rivaled record-setting numbers from Brock Bowers, as they traded the record for most receptions by a rookie last season in Week 18. However, Nabers was a true standout, earning 170 targets last season. That is a great number, obviously, the problem was that he was being thrown the ball by Daniel Jones, Tommy Devito, and Drew Lock. There is a number out there for how many of those 170 were catchable, but not 170 of them, considering his quarterback personnel.
* Oh, and by the way, those 170 targets were in only 15 games. He could have approached 200 with the way he was being peppered with targets towards the tail end of last season.
Malik Nabers has the skill set to be the WR1 overall in New York. The LSU product has honed his skills similarly to other recent LSU greats like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. With the Giant offense being so barren, he will continue to get an absurd number of targets, only this time by an established, Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson is not the same guy that he was five or six years ago in Seattle, but he led a Steeler team to the playoffs and threw a fine ball. Wilson is way better than anything the Giants have had over the last several years. Probably for a few years before Eli Manning retired. It is exciting to see the Giants also sign backup Jameis Winston. Not that Jameis is a great real-life QB, but if we know anything about Jameis, it’s that he throws the ball a TON. Jerry Jeudy was the beneficiary last year in Cleveland.
Knowing that there is a contingency plan for the quarterback, just in case anything happens to Russ, is huge! This is probably the best scenario for Malik Nabers in 2025. I am not sure that long term this is best, but as a Malik Nabers fantasy owner in 2025, just think… Would you rather have Malik Nabers catching balls from a rookie quarterback in a QB class that people are saying is less than stellar? OR would you rather have a QB that has won a Super Bowl and is older, but can still run a functional offense, and a QB as his backup, who throws the ball more than any other backup potentially in NFL History. You would take option two all day.
WR – Honorable Mention
Ladd McConkey – Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey broke out in a big way for the Los Angeles Chargers, for just shy of 200 receiving yards, the only issue was that it was not in a fantasy matchup. It occurred in the biggest game of the season for the Chargers, their 31-12 AFC Wild Card loss to the Houston Texans.
McConkey had a very good rookie season for the Chargers. Stepping up into their newly vacant WR1 role that featured the likes of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen for a decade. McConkey was selected at the top of the second round for the Chargers in 2024. Giving Justin Herbert his first weapon of the Jim Harbaugh era. He caught 82 balls for 1,149 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in his rookie year.
Ladd displayed many abilities and was a high target earner. Having just shy of a 25% target share in the Chargers offense. If you combine his target earning ability with his explosiveness (14th at the position), he is primed to have an even better season as he establishes himself deeper into that Charger offense. The slot receiver had a great rookie season, only behind Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. in the major receiving categories. I think he could be the dark horse of all dark horses to finish #1 at the position in year two. Especially with Joshua Palmer headed to Buffalo. His Early ADP is 19.1 in March. His cost reflects this sentiment.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft – Green Bay Packers
Although we had an emergence in the young Georgia Product Brock Bowers in 2024, Tucker Kraft is my possible (although unlikely) pick to be the number one player at the tight end position in 2025. (Bowers is the favorite heading into 2025) He proved to be a reliable target in the Green Bay offense in 2024. Reliability is the least displayed trait from Green Bay pass catchers over the last few seasons. Evident within the injuries, drops, and other oddities from the group over the last few years. Tucker Kraft was a dark horse in his own right in Green Bay’s Tight-end room. He was selected second at the position in his draft class behind Luke Musgrave.
Kraft has won the job outright, earning 70 targets and gaining 50 receptions for 700+ receiving yards. Musgrave only had 45 yards on the whole of last season. Some of that missed opportunity was provided by an injury and lack of playing time, but Kraft is the clear #1 moving forward at tight end in Green Bay. He also had 7 touchdowns with an increased red zone usage. Kraft can also be categorized as an explosive player, with a couple of long receptions as well.
Kraft can be a streaky fantasy player with cold streaks and hot streaks, but for a tight end, he provides consistent week-to-week performances that are positives from a rather weak tight-end position. He averaged 9.6 Fantasy Points per Game, which is great for a tight end in a crowded offense. I think with Christian Watson nearly out for the entire 2025 campaign, Kraft will see an increased workload. Jordan Love learned as the season went on to rely on his run game and tight ends, finding the right balance could take that offense to the next level and Kraft to the number one spot for fantasy tight-ends in 2024. Kraft has won the job outright.
TE – Honorable Mention
Jonnu Smith – Miami Dolphins
In case you took a year of fantasy football off, the most surprising thing that happened in 2024, not just in football or fantasy football, was the emergence of the 29-year-old journeyman tight-end Jonnu Smith in Miami. He became a favorite target for Tua Tagovailoa. Tua saw limited action in 2024, with another unfortunate concussion injury, but when he played, Jonnu Smith was his favorite target. Yep, you heard me correctly, Jonnu Smith. Not Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith.
Jonnu Smith received 20% of the target share from Miami quarterbacks. He also ran 36.8% of his routes in the slot, providing him more room to get open and thrive in that spot. He truly had a breakout year with 111 targets, 88 receptions, 884 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns in the year of eights for the veteran TE. Jonnu had his career year at the ripe age of 29, proving a spotty projection for the 2025 season. The way that he produced late in the year could translate or it could not. We do have to remember the other pass catchers in that offense.
This list is already full of dark horses, and Jonnu Smith might be the most surprising one to this point, but it was a great story, and I am excited to see what he makes of it this coming season in 2025.