Four weeks into the season, the NFL draft landscape is already taking shape. Surprising struggles and breakout players could make for some interesting decisions during the upcoming draft season. We’re five weeks into the college football regular season and the risers and fallers are ever changing.
These are my updated QB prospect rankings as of October 2026, my first since summer scouting.
My summer scouting Top 5 Rankings by position are available HERE and will be fully updated by November just in time for the relaunch of the Blitz Sports Media mock draft simulator.
1. Arch Manning, Texas
Surrounded by talent at Texas, I expected a leap from Arch Manning into consensus QB1 status, but he’s yet to come through. He hasn’t hurt his stock, but he hasn’t helped it either. Manning appears to be the same player he was at the end of last season, which is good enough to remain my top QB for now, but a few have closed the gap behind him.
2. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State 📈
I was higher than most on Drew Mestemaker to start the season, listing him as QB2 in summer scouting. The tools are undeniable, he has top tier arm talent along with athleticism and the ability to read a defense. The main question on Mestemaker was his level of competition. Since transferring into the Big 12, he’s improved week by week. If his steady ascension continues, he could be the consensus QB1 by time the draft rolls around in April.
3. Darian Mensah, Miami 📈
Darian Mensah climbed one spot in my rankings but has closed the gap considerably between himself and the top QB. Mensah received a massive upgrade in supporting cast since transferring from Duke, but is still facing ACC competition. He’s completing a ridiculous 84.2% of his passes and has thrown 15 touchdowns with no interceptions.
It’s an unrealistic pace to continue, especially as competition becomes tougher as Miami expects to compete in the College Football Playoff this winter. Any questions regarding Mensah will certainly be answered then, and I fully expect for him to succeed and hear his name called on day one of the NFL draft.
4. Dante Moore, Oregon
Dante Moore suffered a vicious hit causing a concussion that puts his extended playing time in question, but he’s a prospect who likely would have been a top 5 pick if he elected to enter the draft after last season. His arm talent is regularly on display and he’s improved at reading defenses and finding the open receiver rather than relying heavily on manufactured completions.
Moore’s draft stock is steady for me, as I was never as high as most on him. The small sample size this season will help him more than hurt him, though, as he’s still considered a top QB prospect by many.
5. C.J. Carr, Notre Dame 📈
C.J. Carr is the most improved QB in my rankings, moving up 3 spots. Last season, I thought he relied too heavily on the short game and 50/50 balls. I wanted to see more conviction in his attack and he’s shown just that.
Carr has always been mechanically sound and played on time and that’s been on display at the highest of levels this year. He’s also shown the ability to work all parts of the football field, including the middle. His ability to play on time and calmly transitions well to the NFL where rhythm passers are making a comeback.
Continued success and progression could put Carr firmly in the first round for me.
6. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss 📈
On a massive rise this season is Trinidad Chambliss, who has hopes of a Heisman at seasons end. I still see some sporadic play, but the athleticism and arm talent is undeniable. He’s shown the ability to rip throws between defenders on a new level this season.
His athleticism is well known. He has the ability to break the pocket and create with his legs off script, or on designed runs. I compare his rushing ability to Jalen Hurts, being a dynamic runner with a hint of power to his game.
There’s a wide variety of analysis on Chambliss, from QB1 on down, but I currently have him as an early day 2 prospect. He’s a capable starter, but lacks elite traits to be a top end QB.
7. Austin Simmons, Missouri
Austin Simmons enters my QB rankings at QB7. An intriguing prospect who was not on my radar in the preseason. In his first year as a starter, he’s shown the ability to work through progressions quickly and get the ball out on time. His level of anticipation and timing is rare among college QBs.
He’s listed at 6’4″, 220 pounds but appears leaner. He doesn’t offer much in off-script plays, but his quick processing often fires the ball out before he is in any trouble. He stands tall in the pocket and has good arm talent to threaten the entire field. His release is low and long, but quick enough that it’s rarely an issue.
In 2026, he’s thrown 13 touchdowns to 0 interceptions, which has certainly caught the attention of NFL scouts. As of now, I see Simmons as a day 2 prospect, but he’s on the rise and could be considered earlier with continued success.
8. Jayden Maiava, USC 📉
The loss of Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane has been noticeable in Jayden Maiava‘s game. This was a worry of mine in summer scouting as he relied heavily on 50/50 balls last year with his exceptional receivers. Maiava has struggled to get the ball out on time and lacks the zip to fit passes into tight windows.
Accuracy and anticipation were his strengths, but they haven’t been on display much this season. Maiava has taken a step back and is no longer a round 1 prospect for me unless he’s able to channel his 2025 form, and then some.
9. Julian Sayin, Ohio State 📉
Julian Sayin entered the season with a lot of question marks regarding his supporting cast. With elite players at nearly every offensive position last year, Sayin was not asked to put the team on his back or elevate the play of those around him.
This year, he has one superstar in Jeremiah Smith, but has struggled outside of featuring his generational receiver. Smith is open, often wide open, on nearly every play and essentially carries the Buckeye offense. When not targeting Smith or unable to get him the ball, Sayin has struggled.
There were signs of it in the College Football Playoff last year when Indiana made life tough for Sayin, but those struggles appear to have followed him into the 2026 season.
Sayin will be one of the tougher QB’s to evaluate this offseason, but he hasn’t shown me enough outside of throwing to Jeremiah Smith to consider him as a QB1 of the future in the NFL.
10. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA
Nico Iamaleava is a prospect I recently evaluated for the first time and came away pleasantly surprised with. Before then, I had known the name for his bogus commitment to the University of Tennessee, just to flip and transfer to UCLA. That aside, he has desirable tools for an NFL quarterback.
He possesses good arm strength to drive the ball around the field, including an impressive deep ball. Much of his tape features the short passing game, which could be a preference of his or him running the offense that is called. His receivers appear to struggle to separate, making him a difficult evaluation. He has good rushing upside as a sneakily fast long strider at 6’6″, 215 pounds.
Iamaleava is a talented runner, but struggles mightily to throw on the run, where his accuracy dips. Accuracy isn’t a strength of his, but with arm talent like his, an NFL staff would likely be open to developing it.
11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina 📉
Everyone is waiting for LaNorris Sellers to take a giant leap forward that just isn’t happening. He has the best tools in the entire class. Rare arm strength, a snappy, adjustable release, excellent athleticism, and flashes of accuracy. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to channel it consistently – almost struggling with it down by down.
I believe a transfer would have done Sellers wonders, but he stuck with South Carolina and may regret it. He no doubt will get a shot in the NFL, but could be the biggest boom or bust prospect in the class.
12. Drake Lindsey, Minnesota
Drake Lindsey‘s descension on this list isn’t a fair evaluation of his play. He has had a good start to the season completing 66.9% of his passes, 8 TDs t o 4 INTs and 1,087 yards, but Lindsey was never going to blow you away on the stat sheet or with in-game play.
Lindsey is a high floor, low ceiling type player who will find a home in the NFL long term as a QB2. Excellent arm talent and a rhythmic passer who thrives in play action passing. There are plenty of teams who will covet his skill set as a QB2.
13. John Mateer, Oklahoma 📉
John Mateer doesn’t appear this high on many lists, but he started the season inside my top 10 and I just can’t let him go. He’s been off to a rough start this season, with his Sooners offense struggling to score (22.0 ppg).
Although Oklahoma can’t put it together, Mateer has great athleticism, toughness and enough arm talent that will give him a shot at making an NFL roster. He’s a great fit for a Shanahan/McVay system as he works the middle of the field well. I’ll follow Mateer closely as the season continues, looking for more reasons for optimism.
14. C.J. Bailey, NC State
C.J. Bailey is a raw QB talent, but lacks a “super power”. His arm is underwhelming, lacking ideal zip or accuracy and he often puts the ball in harms way by delivering late to covered receivers. His strongest ability is a rare one, which is great movement within the pocket. He stands tall, asserting himself and sliding as needed by feeling the rush – an almost extinct skill in college football which is still rare in the NFL.
His athleticism adds an element to his game and paired with his ability in the pocket, it gives him good enough tools to be considered as a project for NFL teams.
15. Sam Leavitt, LSU 📉
After several years of watching and evaluating Sam Leavitt, I just can’t get behind his game. Despite having some good skills to work with, he’s far too sporadic and I think his own offensive coordinator loses more sleep over his play than opposing defensive coordinators. He abandons the structure of the play too often. Although he has the ability to do so, it’s mostly unnecessary. Quarterbacks can make their living doing this in college football, especially on an elite squad like LSU, but it has to be an element of your game in the NFL, not the bulk of it.
Leavitt deserves and will receive a shot in the NFL, but it will take a coaching staff that can calm his mind and body for him to succeed.
