One of the best rivalries in college football: LSU and Alabama. Two teams, both 6-2, are fighting for their chance to control their destiny. Lane Kiffin gets his chance to prove that Alabama hired the wrong coach a couple of years ago. Kalen DeBoer will look to improve to 3-0 against LSU, continuing Nick Saban’s tradition of beating the Tigers. It’s going to be an absolute war, y’all. Let’s talk about it.
Spread: LSU (-6)
Location: Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA
Over/Under: 52.5
One Dimensional
We’re looking at two similar run games facing off against two similar run defenses. LSU currently ranks #5 against the run, allowing just 2.6 YPC. The Tigers have done this despite missing LB Whit Weeks for multiple games now. Alabama currently ranks #16 against the run, allowing just 3.1 YPC, despite missing multiple defensive linemen in its two biggest games this season. We have two defenses with twitchy yet stout edge players, big bodies on the defensive line, and athletic linebackers who can cover the field.
LSU RB Dilin Jones has 149 carries this season. That’s 117 more carries than LSU’s next-closest RB. Needless to say, LSU’s run game depends on Dilin Jones. However, Jones averages just 4.4 YPC. That’s roughly 2 YPC less than LSU’s backup RB, Harlem Berry. The LSU offense hasn’t gotten many explosive plays from Jones. He has just 1 run of more than 21 yards since SEC play started, and it was back in September.
Alabama’s rushing attack is more of a running-back-by-committee approach than LSU’s workhorse approach. Daniel Hill, Trae’Shawn Brown, and EJ Crowell have each carried the ball 71, 64, and 32 times. Their yards per carry are 4.7, 5.1, and 6.8. These 3 RB’s have 6 carries of 20+ yards in SEC play. Compared to LSU, that’s a lot, but it’s not a lot compared to others. Alabama’s run game has left a lot to be desired in its last two games.
Each run game has shown flashes. LSU ran for 172 yards, 4 YPC, and 2 TDs against Ole Miss and 194 yards, 5.1 YPC, and 3 TDs against Texas A&M. Alabama ran for 179 yards, 4.8 YPC, and 4 TDs against Mississippi State and 161 yards, 5.6 YPC, and 1 TD against Georgia. Overall, these run games are touch and go. Each defense will likely shut down the opposing run game on Saturday.
Historical Data
What does history tell us about Lane Kiffin and Kalen DeBoer in games of this setting?
Lane Kiffin is 15-26 against ranked opponents. He’s 5-17 against top-10 opponents. He’s 9-6 coming off a bye week. He’s 0-5 against Alabama, losing 3 of those games by double digits. He wins 64.8% of his SEC games.
Kalen DeBoer is 19-7 against ranked opponents. He’s 7-4 against top-10 opponents. He’s 8-0 coming off a bye week. He wins 70.8% of his SEC games. In the past two seasons, Kalen DeBoer is 7-1 on the road in SEC stadiums.
The LSU Pass Rush
The biggest question heading into Saturday: Can LSU replicate Tennessee’s success rushing the passer? The numbers show LSU can. The Tigers have 34 sacks this season, and Princewill Umanmielen has 8.5. LSU is generating sacks at a 12.7% rate. That’s #1 in the entire nation. Because of this high-volume pass rush, LSU’s secondary has been able to clamp down on opposing WRs, for the most part. The Tigers are allowing just 6 YPA.
But what happens when LSU’s pass rush doesn’t get home at an elite rate? Let’s look at LSU’s games against Kentucky and Ole Miss. Against Ole Miss, LSU recorded 2 sacks. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 363 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Against Kentucky, LSU recorded just 1 sack. Kenny Minchey threw for 246 yards and committed 0 turnovers. Kentucky ran for 155 yards. What’s the common outcome in both games? A LSU loss.
Outside of Trinidad Chambliss and Kenny Minchey (the two losses for LSU this season), LSU has faced the following QBs: Christopher Vizzina and Tait Reynolds (Clemson), Blake Baker and Trey Kukuk (Louisiana Tech), Marcel Reed (Texas A&M), Brady Barrier and Jake Strong (McNeese), Parker Puckett (Mississippi State), and Byrum Brown (Auburn).
LSU has not beaten teams with strong QB play. Now, LSU has home-field advantage on Saturday, something the Tigers didn’t have against Ole Miss and Kentucky.
Prediction
Alabama: 24
LSU: 22
I’ve tossed and turned with this prediction for two weeks now. Everyone, including me, is watching the Tennessee performance and wondering whether LSU can do the same to Alabama. LSU has the weapons in the pass rush and the talent in the secondary.
I factor into this prediction that Alabama will have its healthiest squad in a month. The Tide have been missing Terrance Green, Ryan Coleman-Williams, and Racin Delgatty since the Georgia game. Zabien Brown has missed the last 6 quarters. Justin Hill hasn’t played meaningful snaps since the FSU game. Alabama is currently expected to get all of these players back on Saturday.
Going into Death Valley against an elite roster is like staring death in the face. But I’ve seen Kalen DeBoer come out victorious in these SEC environments before. He’s beaten Georgia in Athens, one of only two teams to do so since November of 2019. He’s beaten Oklahoma in Norman in a College Football Playoff game. He’s already beaten LSU in Baton Rouge before. He led Alabama against #6 Kentucky in Lexington and won by 28 points, a place that LSU visited and lost in week six.
If one of Ryan Coleman-Williams, Terrance Green, or Racin Delgatty misses this game, I would lean LSU on that occasion. That’s how narrow the margin is. This game will come down to one key player making a big play. Will it be a huge scramble from Sam Leavitt? Will it be a deep pass from Keelon Russell to Ryan Coleman-Williams? Or a strip-sack by LSU? Maybe a pick-six from Alabama? Tune in Saturday and let’s find out.
