My complete 1–18 Big Ten standings, projected records and conference championship prediction—with Mike of Moore College Football joining the debate.
The Big Ten enters the 2026 season in an unfamiliar position: as the unquestioned standard-bearer of college football.
Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana have delivered three consecutive national championships for the conference. Now, the Big Ten has three more legitimate title contenders at the top, several programs capable of entering the College Football Playoff conversation and a crowded middle class in which one unexpected result could completely reshape the standings.
My predictions combine roster strength, recruiting, transfer-portal performance, returning production, SP+, strength of schedule and the LFTG Performance Index.
My Complete 2026 Big Ten Predictions
| Rank | Team | Conference | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 8–1 | 11–1 |
| 2 | Oregon | 8–1 | 11–1 |
| 3 | Indiana | 8–1 | 11–1 |
| 4 | Penn State | 7–2 | 10–2 |
| 5 | USC | 6–3 | 9–3 |
| 6 | Washington | 6–3 | 9–3 |
| 7 | Iowa | 6–3 | 9–3 |
| 8 | Illinois | 6–3 | 9–3 |
| 9 | Michigan | 6–3 | 8–4 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 4–5 | 7–5 |
| 11 | Maryland | 4–5 | 6–6 |
| 12 | Nebraska | 3–6 | 6–6 |
| 13 | UCLA | 3–6 | 5–7 |
| 14 | Wisconsin | 2–7 | 4–8 |
| 15 | Northwestern | 1–8 | 4–8 |
| 16 | Rutgers | 1–8 | 4–8 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 1–8 | 3–9 |
| 18 | Purdue | 1–8 | 2–10 |
18. Purdue Boilermakers: 2–10 (1-8)
Barry Odom is attempting to build a foundation in West Lafayette, but Purdue remains one of the most difficult Power Four jobs entering 2026.
The Boilermakers rank 81st in my model and face the nation’s third-hardest schedule. Quarterback Ryan Browne returns, while Purdue added several intriguing defensive pieces, including CJ Madden, Breeon Ishmail and Elo Modozie. However, this is still a program that has not won a conference game since 2023.
Purdue’s minus-12 turnover margin and poor defensive efficiency from last season offer room for regression toward the mean, but the roster remains too thin to expect a major standings jump. Even one Big Ten victory would represent measurable progress.
17. Michigan State Spartans: 3–9 (1-8)
Pat Fitzgerald begins his Michigan State tenure with significant questions about the roster, administration and long-term direction of the program.
Alessio Milivojevic is expected to take over at quarterback, while UConn transfer Cam Edwards gives the Spartans a legitimate offensive building block. Edwards is one of the conference’s most productive returning running backs, but the supporting cast lacks proven difference-makers.
Michigan State also lost more talent than it acquired through the portal and enters the season with an inexperienced defensive front. Fitzgerald has previously produced impressive results with limited resources, but rebuilding in the modern Big Ten will require time.
16. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 4–8 (1-8)
Rutgers has two excellent offensive weapons in running back Antwan Raymond and receiver KJ Duff. Raymond rushed for more than 1,200 yards last season, while Duff surpassed 1,000 receiving yards.
The uncertainty begins at quarterback, where Dylan Lonergan and AJ Surace are competing for the starting job. Lonergan brings experience from Boston College and Alabama, but neither option has proven he can consistently elevate a Big Ten offense.
The larger problem is the defense. Rutgers finished last among Power Four teams in defensive PPA last season and now introduces a new coordinator. Mike was considerably more optimistic and projected Rutgers to reach a bowl game, but I need to see major defensive improvement before trusting the Scarlet Knights.
15. Northwestern Wildcats: 4–8 (1-8)
Northwestern might be one of the conference’s most interesting teams, even though I have the Wildcats finishing 15th.
Chip Kelly arrives as offensive coordinator and will work with Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles. Chiles possesses obvious physical talent and dual-threat ability, but his consistency and decision-making remain major questions.
Running back Caleb Komolafe and receiver Griffin Wilde give Kelly two proven weapons. The offensive line, however, replaces most of its starting lineup. Northwestern also faces a difficult schedule that includes Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, Iowa and Ohio State.
The reopening of Ryan Field provides excitement, but the schedule and line play make another bowl appearance difficult to project.
14. Wisconsin Badgers: 4–8 (2-7)
The 2026 season may determine whether Luke Fickell receives another year in Madison.
Wisconsin has declined in each of Fickell’s first three seasons, but Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph offers some hope at quarterback. His dual-threat ability could give the Badgers a dimension they have lacked throughout Fickell’s tenure.
The receiving corps remains unsettled, while the defense must replace several important contributors. Linebackers Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano are potential building blocks, but Wisconsin’s overall roster ranks only 68th in my model.
Mike projected the Badgers to reach a bowl game. I am less confident, especially with Notre Dame, Penn State, UCLA, USC and Iowa appearing before Wisconsin reaches its more manageable November stretch.
13. UCLA Bruins: 5–7 (3-6)
UCLA produced the largest disagreement of the entire show.
I have the Bruins finishing 5–7 in Bob Chesney’s first season. Mike, a major believer in the former James Madison coach, projected UCLA to go 9–3 and finish seventh in the conference.
Nico Iamaleava returns at quarterback, Wayne Knight joins the backfield and several former James Madison players followed Chesney to Westwood. UCLA also returns one of the nation’s highest percentages of offensive production.
My concern is the transition. Chesney is implementing a new program on the opposite side of the country, and UCLA’s defensive line is being rebuilt after producing only 10 sacks last season. The long-term trajectory is encouraging, but I expect growing pains before a potential Year 2 breakthrough.
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers: 6–6 (3-6)
Nebraska ranks third nationally in returning production and 11th in returning snaps according to my graphics. Those numbers will generate optimism, but experience does not automatically equal high-end performance.
Anthony Colandrea arrives to compete with TJ Lateef at quarterback. Colandrea brings considerable production, while Lateef gained valuable starting experience late last season. The offensive line should improve, but Nebraska still needs to establish a dependable running back.
The larger concern is a defense that has regressed throughout Matt Rhule’s tenure. New coordinator Rob Aurich added several transfer reinforcements, but the group must improve against the run.
Nebraska has not won eight games since 2016. I see progress, but not a full breakthrough.
11. Maryland Terrapins: 6–6 (4-5)
Maryland is one of the highest-variance teams in the conference.
Quarterback Malik Washington returns after an encouraging freshman season in which he threw for nearly 3,000 yards. Maryland also ranks second in my returning-production metric and brings back 10 defensive starters.
The offense must replace its three leading receivers, however, and the offensive line struggled to create a dependable rushing attack last season. Five-star Baltimore edge Zion Elee headlines the incoming class and could become an immediate defensive difference-maker.
Maryland has consistently started seasons well before collapsing during conference play. Reaching six wins will depend on Mike Locksley finally preventing another October and November slide.
10. Minnesota Golden Gophers: 7–5 (4-5)
Minnesota has quietly developed a dependable floor under PJ Fleck.
Quarterback Drake Lindsey returns after starting as a true freshman, while a healthy Darius Taylor could substantially improve the running game. The offensive line remains a concern after Minnesota finished near the bottom of the conference in rushing production.
The defense should keep the Golden Gophers competitive. Anthony Smith led the Big Ten with 12.5 sacks last season, and California transfer TJ Bush Jr. gives Minnesota another disruptive edge presence.
Minnesota went undefeated at home but winless on the road last season. Even modest improvement away from Minneapolis could be enough to secure seven or eight victories.
9. Michigan Wolverines: 8–4
Kyle Whittingham inherits enough talent to compete immediately, but Michigan’s ceiling depends almost entirely on Bryce Underwood’s development.
Underwood flashed his enormous potential as a freshman. Now, he must become a more consistent passer. Jordan Marshall returns at running back, five-star freshman Savion Hiter joins the rotation and Utah transfer JJ Buchanan strengthens the receiving corps.
Defensively, John Henry Daley could become one of the best portal additions in the country. Michigan still has questions at linebacker and must navigate one of the Big Ten’s hardest schedules.
The Wolverines possess playoff-caliber talent, but until the passing game proves it can consistently win games, 8–4 feels more realistic than another championship run.
8. Illinois Fighting Illini: 9–3
Illinois is one of my most aggressive predictions.
The Illini do not possess top-10 metrics across the board, but Bret Bielema has built a culture I trust. Illinois has won 19 games over the past two seasons and has established itself as one of the conference’s most dependable programs.
East Carolina transfer Katin Houser replaces Luke Altmyer at quarterback. He will be supported by a deep collection of receivers and running backs, although an offensive line replacing four starters is a major concern.
My 9–3 prediction is ultimately a bet on coaching stability, player development and a manageable schedule. Illinois may not have nine-win roster rankings, but it has developed a nine-win organizational standard.
7. Iowa Hawkeyes: 9–3
Iowa replaces 17 starters, yet I still have the Hawkeyes winning nine games.
That prediction requires faith in Kirk Ferentz, defensive coordinator Phil Parker and Iowa’s ability to win ugly games. The quarterback competition remains unsettled, with Hank Brown, Jeremy Hecklinski and freshman Tradon Bessinger fighting for the job.
Kamari Moulton should lead another physical rushing attack, while DJ Vonnahme continues Iowa’s tradition of productive tight ends. The defense will need younger players such as former five-star edge Iose Epenesa to emerge quickly.
The lack of quarterback certainty lowers the ceiling, but Iowa’s defensive structure and player-development history keep its floor unusually high.
6. Washington Huskies: 9–3
Washington may be the most overlooked contender in the conference.
Demond Williams Jr. returns after throwing for more than 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. The Huskies bring back 84% of their offensive production, although they must replace No. 1 receiver Denzel Boston and settle a running back room affected by spring injuries.
Five-star freshman tackle Kodi Greene could provide an immediate offensive-line upgrade. Defensively, coordinator Ryan Walters has created a dependable unit capable of keeping Washington in close games.
The Huskies have improved from six wins to nine under Jedd Fisch. With an experienced quarterback and one of the conference’s most intact rosters, another nine-win season is attainable.
5. USC Trojans: 9–3
USC enters a defining season for Lincoln Riley.
Jayden Maiava returns after throwing for more than 3,700 yards, and the Trojans bring back all five offensive-line starters. King Miller and Waymond Jordan form an excellent running back combination, but USC must replace its two most productive receivers.
Terrell Anderson arrives from NC State, while five-star tight end Mark Bowman could immediately become an important target. Gary Patterson takes over a defense that has remained Riley’s greatest weakness throughout his USC tenure.
Mike went much further than I did, selecting USC to finish 10–2 and reach the Big Ten Championship Game. I see a playoff-caliber ceiling, but road trips to Penn State and Indiana—combined with home games against Oregon, Washington and Ohio State—leave little room for inconsistency.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions: 10–2
Penn State begins a new era under Matt Campbell with an almost completely reconstructed roster.
Rocco Becht follows Campbell from Iowa State and brings extensive experience in the system. Tight end Benjamin Brahmer and several other former Cyclones also made the move, which should shorten the transition period. Watch out for portal addition James Peoples at running back coming in from Ohio State.
The offense must identify a dependable receiving hierarchy, with Koby Howard among the most intriguing breakout candidates. Defensively, coordinator D’Anton Lynn inherits an impressive linebacker group led by Tony Rojas, Caleb Bacon and safety Marcus Neal.
The largest reason for my 10–2 projection is the schedule. Penn State avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. USC, Michigan and Washington are the major tests, giving Campbell a realistic path toward immediate contention.
3. Indiana Hoosiers: 11–1
Curt Cignetti has already transformed Indiana from a historic underdog into the defending national champion.
Replacing Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza will not be easy, but Josh Hoover arrives with nearly 10,000 career passing yards. Hoover’s turnover history is the main concern; his production has never been questioned.
Indiana added Michigan State receiver Nick Marsh to pair with Charlie Becker. Carter Smith anchors the offensive line, while Tobi Osunsanmi joins a defensive front that should remain one of the conference’s best.
The Hoosiers went 4–0 in one-score games and finished plus-21 in turnover margin last season, suggesting some statistical regression is possible. Even with that regression, Cignetti has earned the benefit of the doubt. I have Indiana’s only loss coming against Ohio State.
2. Oregon Ducks: 11–1
Oregon may have the Big Ten’s most complete roster.
Dante Moore returns as a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender, with Dylan Raiola providing elite depth behind him. Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. lead the backfield, while five-star additions Jalen Lott and Kendre Harrison give the Ducks even more offensive firepower behind returning Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart.
The defensive front could be the best in college football. Matayo Uiagalelei, Teitum Tuioti, A’Mauri Washington and Bear Alexander headline a deep rotation, while Koi Perich strengthens an already talented secondary.
The offensive line and two new coordinators are the primary questions. Oregon has also exited the playoff decisively in consecutive seasons. The talent is championship-caliber; the next step is delivering against elite opponents in December.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes: 11–1
Ohio State is my No. 1 team in the Big Ten and the country.
Julian Sayin returns after establishing himself as one of college football’s most accurate quarterbacks. Jeremiah Smith may be the best overall player in the sport, Bo Jackson leads the backfield and five-star receiver Chris Henry Jr. joins an already loaded offense.
The defense lost seven players to the NFL Draft, but Matt Patricia remains in place and Alabama transfer James Smith reinforces the defensive line. Ohio State may not reproduce last season’s historically dominant defensive numbers, but the roster still has more than enough talent to remain elite.
The Buckeyes face road games against Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC and Nebraska, in addition to hosting Oregon and Michigan. I expect one slip, but not enough to prevent Ohio State from returning to Indianapolis.
Big Ten Championship Prediction
Ohio State over Oregon
My projected championship game features Ohio State and Oregon, both entering Indianapolis at 11–1.
Oregon’s defensive line presents the greatest threat to Ohio State’s offense. If the Ducks can pressure Julian Sayin without committing additional defenders, they can limit explosive opportunities for Jeremiah Smith.
On the other side, Oregon’s rebuilt offensive line would face an Ohio State defense replacing several NFL players. Dante Moore should have opportunities if the Ducks protect him, but that remains their largest unanswered question.
In a close game, I trust Ohio State’s quarterback, offensive line and overall roster depth slightly more.
Final prediction: Ohio State 31, Oregon 27.
The Buckeyes reclaim their first Big Ten championship since 2020 and enter the College Football Playoff as the potential No. 1 seed.
