Week 1 of the college football season gives us a loaded betting board, but three favorites stand out based on a combination of matchup advantages, efficiency metrics and independent projections.
Here are my three favorite spread bets of the week.
1. Auburn -7 vs. Baylor
Auburn -7 is my strongest play on the board.
Multiple independent models point toward the Tigers. Sharp Football has Auburn -7 as its Week 1 best bet, while SportsLine’s 10,000-game simulation model has Auburn covering -7.5 in more than 60% of simulations.
The matchup itself might be even more convincing.
Baylor ranked 121st nationally in opponent-adjusted defense against quarterback runs last season, allowing 25% more rushing production on those plays than its opponents typically generated. That could be a major problem against new Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown, who averaged 101.1 rushing yards per FBS game excluding sacks last season at USF.
Brown also shouldn’t have to completely relearn an offense. Alex Golesh followed him from USF to Auburn, along with five USF receivers. Golesh’s offense played at the second-fastest tempo in the country last season and utilized RPOs on 32% of its plays.
That’s another potential mismatch. Baylor ranked 107th nationally in yards per play allowed against RPOs and now enters the season with an inexperienced linebacker group.
Auburn should have an advantage on the other side of the ball as well. Baylor replaces four starting offensive linemen, while Auburn’s defense ranked second nationally in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed.
Brown’s rushing ability, Auburn’s RPO-heavy system and Baylor’s offensive-line turnover give the Tigers advantages on both sides of the ball.
Best Bet: Auburn -7
Projected Score: Auburn 34, Baylor 23
Grade: A
2. Cincinnati -7 vs. Boston College
Cincinnati isn’t quite as strong as Auburn, but the underlying numbers make the Bearcats one of my favorite favorites of Week 1.
SportsLine’s simulations have Cincinnati covering around 60% of the time, while Blue Chip’s quantitative model makes the fair spread Cincinnati -12.8 — nearly six points higher than the current market.
Last year’s efficiency numbers also show a significant gap.
Cincinnati averaged 6.9 yards per play offensively while allowing 5.6. Boston College averaged approximately 5.2 yards per play while surrendering 6.8.
That works out to roughly a 2.9-yard difference in net yards-per-play efficiency between the two teams.
Boston College is also breaking in quarterback Mason McKenzie, who arrives from Division II Saginaw Valley State, behind an offensive line returning only one starter.
Now BC has to deal with that transition at Nippert Stadium. Cincinnati went 5-2 at home last season, while Boston College has lost nine of its last 10 road games.
Not every model agrees. SP+ has Cincinnati favored by only 7.9 points, while Dimers projects a 28-23 Bearcats victory. But with several other quantitative projections showing substantially more value on Cincinnati, I’m willing to lay the touchdown.
Best Bet: Cincinnati -7
Projected Score: Cincinnati 30, Boston College 19
Grade: B+
3. Notre Dame -20.5 vs. Wisconsin
Notre Dame rounds out the three plays, with independent projections consistently putting the Fighting Irish above the current number.
An SP+-based projection makes Notre Dame a 22.7-point favorite with roughly a 92% probability of winning outright. Blue Chip independently puts its fair spread at Notre Dame -21.4.
The biggest reason I like Notre Dame isn’t necessarily because I expect the Irish offense to explode. It’s because Wisconsin could struggle to score.
Against five opponents that finished inside the Top 10 in defensive SP+ last season, Wisconsin averaged only 5.4 points per game.
The Badgers could also enter this matchup compromised up front, with starting offensive linemen Kevin Heywood and Emerson Mandell uncertain. That’s a difficult situation against a Notre Dame defense loaded with NFL-caliber talent.
Notre Dame ranked 15th nationally in EPA allowed per pass last season and held five of its final six unranked opponents to 10 points or fewer.
With the game’s total sitting around 47, the market is essentially asking Notre Dame to win something like 34-14. I think Wisconsin finishing closer to 7-10 points is very realistic.
That creates enough margin for the Irish to cover three touchdowns.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -20.5
Projected Score: Notre Dame 33, Wisconsin 10
Grade: B+
The Final Card
The three plays I’m targeting are Auburn -7, Cincinnati -7 and Notre Dame -20.5.
Auburn is easily my favorite of the group because of how well Byrum Brown and Alex Golesh’s offense match up with Baylor’s defensive weaknesses. Cincinnati has one of the largest model-versus-market discrepancies of the three, while Notre Dame has a legitimate chance to cover primarily by shutting down Wisconsin’s offense.
For a three-leg spread parlay, that’s the card I’m riding in Week 1.
