The Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers open Week 5 on Thursday Night Football, and this is a matchup where I think the circumstances surrounding both teams create several interesting betting opportunities. Dallas enters the game 2-2 after a 34-30 comeback win over Houston, while Tampa Bay is still searching for its first win at 0-4 and will once again start rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield sidelined.
I’m attacking this game from several different angles. Dallas has the offensive advantage and should be able to control the scoreboard, but Tampa Bay still has opportunities to produce on the ground and through the short passing game. After going through the recent production, player usage, and individual matchups, these are my five favorite bets for Cowboys-Buccaneers.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5
I’m buying Dallas down to -6.5 rather than laying the standard spread around nine points. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in every game this season and have topped 30 in three of four, while Dak Prescott is coming off a 335-yard performance against Houston. Tampa Bay has gone in the opposite direction offensively, falling to 0-4 while averaging only 16 points per game since Week 1. The Buccaneers will also be without Baker Mayfield again because of his thumb injury, leaving Jalon Daniels to make his second NFL start.
Daniels threw for only 148 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in his first start, although he did add 55 yards on the ground. Now he has to make his first road start on a short week against a Dallas team capable of forcing Tampa Bay to chase points. The Buccaneers are also without Antoine Winfield Jr., which creates another significant loss against a Cowboys offense that’s consistently moving the football. Getting this number below seven is what makes it attractive to me. Rather than asking Dallas to cover nine or 10 points, I simply need the Cowboys to beat an 0-4 team starting a rookie quarterback by a touchdown.
Pick: Cowboys -6.5
Bucky Irving 50+ Rushing Yards
Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards might be my favorite bet of the entire game. Irving has rushed for 45, 89, 46 and 61 yards through four weeks, giving him 241 yards on 56 carries. The raw 2-for-4 hit rate doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but his underlying efficiency has been considerably better. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry with 11 missed tackles forced and 2.9 yards after contact per attempt, while PFF has given him a 74.0 rushing grade, 10th among 47 qualifying running backs.
The matchup is where this really separates for me. Dallas has allowed 150.3 rushing yards per game, while FantasyPros projects Irving for 16.2 carries and 70.4 rushing yards. Irving has also averaged exactly 16 carries over his past three games, meaning he would need only a little over three yards per carry at that workload to reach our number. With Daniels making his second start, I’d expect Tampa Bay to make establishing the running game a priority rather than immediately putting the offense entirely on its rookie quarterback. Irving’s combination of workload, efficiency and matchup makes 50 yards my favorite threshold on the board.
Pick: Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards
George Pickens 50+ Receiving Yards
I’m buying George Pickens down from his standard receiving line and playing 50+ yards. Pickens opened the season with 28 and 40 receiving yards but has followed that with 82 and 75 over his past two games. Through four weeks, he has 18 receptions for 225 yards on 27 targets with a 12.7-yard average depth of target. Entering Week 4, PlayerProfiler had Pickens at a 24.5% target share, 35.2% air-yard share and 85.6% route participation, while his 7.3 first-read targets per game ranked eighth among wide receivers.
That’s exactly what I want when lowering the threshold to 50 yards. The underlying usage has consistently treated Pickens as one of Dallas’ primary options rather than leaving him dependent on connecting with Dak Prescott on one random deep ball. FantasyPros projects him for 4.8 receptions and 69.6 receiving yards this week, while Tampa Bay will also be without Antoine Winfield Jr. on the back end. Pickens has averaged 2.00 yards per route run against zone coverage as well. After consecutive games above 75 yards, I’m comfortable asking him to reach only 50 here.
Pick: George Pickens 50+ receiving yards
Brandon Aubrey 2+ Field Goals
Brandon Aubrey 2+ field goals is one of my favorite ways to attack the Dallas offense without needing to predict which skill-position player scores. FantasyPros currently projects Aubrey for 2.5 field-goal attempts and 2.1 makes this week, while CBS is more aggressive at 2.9 attempts and 2.5 makes. Both projection systems still have him above the two-field-goal threshold we’re playing, which gives me additional confidence in a market that’s primarily about opportunity.
The recent volume supports that argument. Aubrey has attempted 11 field goals over his past three games, converting eight with two makes from at least 50 yards. Tampa Bay’s defense has also held opponents below 300 total yards in three consecutive games, so I don’t need the Cowboys to score touchdowns every time they cross midfield. I want Dallas consistently moving into scoring territory and creating opportunities for Aubrey, something we’ve already seen throughout the past three weeks. With his range and the volume Dallas has generated, two made field goals is a number I’m willing to attack.
Pick: Brandon Aubrey 2+ field goals
Chris Godwin 4+ Receptions
Chris Godwin 4+ receptions is my fifth and most volatile play, but I prefer attacking his catches rather than his receiving yards. Godwin has caught 16 of 17 targets for 142 yards this season, an absurd 94.1% catch rate. PFF has his average depth of target at only three yards, while 100 of his 142 receiving yards have come after the catch. That’s a very clear indication of what Tampa Bay is asking him to do: work underneath, provide an easy completion and create additional yardage with the football in his hands.
We already saw that role translate with Daniels under center in Week 4. Godwin caught six passes for 31 yards and led Tampa Bay in receptions during Daniels’ first NFL start. Daniels completed 19 of 27 passes for only 148 yards, so this offense clearly wasn’t built around aggressively attacking downfield. That’s perfectly fine for this bet. I’m asking Daniels to complete four short passes to a veteran receiver who was already his favorite target last week. PFF projects Godwin for 3.5 receptions on 4.9 targets, so the projection itself is slightly below our number, but his actual usage with Daniels gives me enough reason to still play the over.
Pick: Chris Godwin 4+ receptions
Final Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Picks
My favorite play is Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards, with George Pickens 50+ receiving right behind it. Both have strong underlying usage and favorable alternate thresholds relative to their current projections. Aubrey 2+ field goals is another play I like because of the opportunities Dallas has consistently created, while Cowboys -6.5 allows us to get below the key number of seven.
- Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards
- George Pickens 50+ receiving yards
- Brandon Aubrey 2+ field goals
- Dallas Cowboys -6.5
- Chris Godwin 4+ receptions
The five bets also tell a relatively consistent story about how I expect this game to play out. Dallas controls the scoreboard, Pickens remains heavily involved through the air and sustained Cowboys drives create opportunities for Aubrey. On the other side, Tampa Bay tries to protect Daniels by establishing Irving early before eventually being forced into more passing situations, where Godwin’s short-area role gives him opportunities to accumulate receptions.
21+ | Play responsibly.
